Prune60

2. They’re struggling to forecast accurately even a couple months into the future, so I doubt they can accurately know how bad things will be by the end of the year.

1. How they decide to deal with the situation will determine where they take the hit. First they have to “pick their poison” which is what they’re working on now.

It seems like they might be looking for new strategies and/or desperate moves.

So watch the big picture and don’t get too focused on a single metric as an indicator of the entire situation.

IT WILL GET WORSE

~ The End ~

One thing worth watching, is whether the Russian government starts putting the squeeze on any of these illiquid assets. (Or perhaps an even further squeeze than they already are)

We don’t know yet what they’re going to do yet to deal with the worsening situation.

О результатах размещения средств Фонда национального благосостояния

And here is where you can access the report from 2022 I referenced at the beginning of the thread.

minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...

Информационное сообщение о результатах размещения средств Фонда национального благосостояния

Here is where you can access the report. (It’s in Russian, my screenshots are auto translated)

minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...

And here is the full report.

Here I highlighted it so you could see it better.

Here is the bottom of the report that shows the income from investments that was taken an applied to the Federal Budget.

So what I’ve done here is highlighted in

🔴 Red, all the funds being allocated (going out)

🟢 All the funds coming in

Anyway, back to the report!

And they’re seeing where they can cut spending

And they’re telling Putin he has to do something, or else.

Which is why they need to rush & do something, or else the NWF will run empty.

And there was another update indicating that they will have to pull more in February

To me, this looks like evidence that the bucket is empty, and they had to begin withdrawing from the official NWF due to the budget rule.

We previously talked about the bucket 🪣 in this thread.

Please read it if you haven’t.

We didn’t see evidence of the bucket running dry last month.

“…The proceeds are credited to a single account of the federal budget in order to finance its deficit.”

This right here, is money going out.

“In January 2026, part of the NWF funds in the accounts of the Bank of Russia in the amount of 8,426.0 million Chinese yuan and 5,147.5 kg of gold in impersonal form were sold for 154,568.4 million rubles….”

This right here was a conversion from rubles to yuan. This note does not reflect anything moving in or out, just the conversion.

Here is how funds were allocated and received.

I thought we could walk through this so it was easier to follow.

This is the little footnote that explains how those are valued.

And these items highlighted here are the ones whose value is based on MOEX.

Note that Sberbank is the largest illiquid asset held by the NWF.

Here I highlighted the liquid assets

Here is everything currently in the NWF:

Here is the Table of Contents for this thread

For Fun…

On the left are the liquid assets of the NWF as of

👉 1 June 2022

On the right are the liquid assets of the NWF as

👉 1 February 2026

‼️ 🇷🇺 NWF Update

As of February 2026:

The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds:

👉 201.0657 Billion Yuan (-8.0863 billion)
👉 155.0937 tons of gold (-5.1475 tons)
👉 0.0 Billion Rubles (-3.123 billion)

And that’s it.

(Totals for January)

I don’t know, propaganda may actually be the last thing to stop getting funding

But also, some of the “projects” may just be cover for something else, like recapitalizing banks.