Benedikt Heid

Trump proposing 100% tariffs on China

The secret to academic success is 20% grit, 80% sunk cost fallacy

Causal nihilism like this will get us nowhere, folks! At the very least, turn that value judgment into a quantitatively grounded estimate of sensitivity.

Is this mi primer artículo bisexual en el salto? Diría que sí...

A blue collar, apolitical friend in Michigan is mad when, because of Trump ending the de minimis exemption, UPS surpised him by demanding a tariff payment before it would deliver a part he ordered on EBay from the Czech Republic.

This made it super clear to him who pays tariffs.

The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro Many applied microeconomics papers conclude with a back-of-the-envelope calculation that scales their cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level. These types of aggregate estimates are only vali...

Very useful discussion on the perils of using micro/cross-sectional parameter estimates in inferring the aggregate effects of policies/shocks. This is pervasive in Economics, yet the two effects can even have the opposite signs. (Example in next post.) voxdev.org/topic/method...

Most Trump tariffs are not legal, US appeals court rules A U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key international economic policy tool.

So the bell goes now for Round Two… (ding) https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/most-trump-tariffs-are-not-legal-us-appeals-court-rules-2025-08-29/

1) BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED BASED

2) See you in the Supreme Court!

3) I have little faith in the Supreme Court

📢 New initiative: we are launching a monthly virtual seminar in French Economic History to share and discuss the latest research in the field!

🌍 Open to all interested in #econhist.

👉 Info & updates: sites.google.com/view/vwfhe/h...

Feijóo propone un registro de pirómanos, cuando solo el 7% de los incendios intencionados tienen esa causa Mientras el líder de la oposición propone un plan contra incendios, que incluye perseguir a los pirómanos, el Gobierno aprobará este martes ayudas para las zonas afectadas.

🚒Feijóo propone un registro de pirómanos, cuando solo el 7% de los incendios intencionados tienen esa causa

"If we fight a grinding total war of attrition we'll need factories!" is the kind of statement that might be true in an economy-wide sense but is just populist protectionism in an army helmet when you reach for it one sector at a time to justify tariffs or subsidies you want to roll out anyway.

Exclusive: Trump administration weighs sanctions on officials implementing EU tech law, sources say President Donald Trump's administration is considering imposing sanctions on European Union or member state officials responsible for implementing the bloc's landmark Digital Services Act, two sources familiar with the matter said, over U.S. complaints that the law censors Americans and imposes costs on U.S. tech companies.

The EU has swallowed a lot already. It can’t compromise when it comes to the regulation of technology platforms that facilitate the spread of hate speech, disinformation & partisan propaganda.

www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

Student Arrivals to US Continue to Plummet, With Asia Hit Especially Hard Visitors to the US arriving on student visas plunged in July, falling year-on-year for a fourth straight month.

Your occasional reminder -- as arrivals on student visas decrease 28% -- that tuition from foreign students counts as an export, which means that every rejected student visa is going to contribute to the US trade deficit.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Ein weiterer Schlag gegen die Rechtssicherheit in den USA. Man kann inzwischen von einem spezifischen Investionsrisiko in den USA sprechen. Für die US-Wirtschaft ein fatales Signal.

Ørsted: Trump-Regierung verhängt Baustopp für Offshore-Windpark Revolution Wind Alle Fundamente und die meisten Turbinen stehen schon, doch der dänische Staatskonzern Ørsted darf sein Projekt »Revolution Wind« nicht fertigstellen. Die USA begründen ihren Eingriff mit der national...

Trump stoppt Windparkbau mit fadenscheinigen nationalen Sicherheitsinteressen. Eine de facto Enteignung bzw Entwertung ausländischer Direktinvestitionen. Ein Verhalten, das bisher oft in lateinamerikanischen Ländern diskutiert wurde. 1/n

This is exactly right. Trump hasn’t put into place the completely ridiculous tariff rates he’s threatened but he’s raised tariffs to the highest they’ve been in generations. In all of the chaos surrounding Trump’s trade policy, we shouldn’t lose sight of this fact

Joint Statement on a United States-European Union Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade The United States and the European Union are pleased to announce that they have agreed on a Framework on

Text of the US-EU trade deal is out: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

The most important thing is what's not there. Trump had boasted "They gave me $600 billion, and that’s a gift." But guess what? They didn't. He didn't get a penny.

Russian strike burnt 15,000 books at Ukrainian university in a single night on 18 August.

The attack destroyed the library's newest collection of the Sumy State University. Every book was purchased over the past six years.⤵️

📷Suspilne

In Defense of Jonathan Brown Georgetown suspended a professor for a statement milder than one made by the president of the United States on social media. It should immediately end the practice of arbitrary suspensions without due...

correct link: www.insidehighered.com/opinion/colu...

TACO damages everything he touches.
#empiresuicidewatch 76

Lake Konigsee on German-Austrian border © Adobe Stock, Michal Rezny

Lake at the border between Norway and Sweden © Adobe Stock, Wirestock

Mountain landscape in the Pieniny National Park at the foot of the Tatra Mountains. Pieniny Park is located on the border of Poland and Slovakia © Adobe Stock, proslgn

Flock of sheeps moving down a valley in the French Alps on border with Switzerland © Adobe Stock, Aide

More than 450 million Europeans. 29 countries. 1 shared freedom.

This year, we mark 40 years of Schengen!

The Schengen Agreement has reshaped how over 450 million Europeans live, work and travel.

Spanish people know deadly heatwaves are now an annual event. So why are our politicians in denial? | María Ramírez We need everyday solutions like ‘cool banks’ and shaded areas, as well as serious policies on emissions, says María Ramírez, deputy managing editor of elDiario.es

What’s happening now in Spain didn’t happen just 50 years ago at this scale in most of the country. Still it’s shocking how little the political debate focuses on the consequences of the climate emergency. My opinion piece @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The old tweet for historical interest - I had no idea when I posted it that this had anything to do with stuff psychologists were doing. x.com/rlmcelreath/...

You'll never guess who is *actually* paying for the tariffs.

The White House is taking new steps to undermine every international student at our universities.

It has approved a new rule restricting student visas to 4 years max. That's not long enough for PhD students, or about half of undergrads, to finish their degree.

Likely to enter force within days.

Are Economists Architects or Auditors? Ricardo Hausmann laments how the field’s appetite for imaginative problem-solving has given way to narrow, testable hypotheses.

Must read by @ricardohausmann.bsky.social

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/w...

AEA Statement on Dismissal of BLS Comm.

"The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions."

Percentages, how do they work?

Mr. Digre's company has long manufactured speakers in Minnesota for export, including to a major customer in Canada. His firm relies on certain materials from China, the only place to get many small components needed for speakers. But Mr. Digre must now pay a 55 percent tariff on those Chinese imports. As a result, manufacturing for that customer from the United States no longer makes sense. So Mr. Digre has shifted speaker production to a factory in China, where he will export directly to Canada and bypass the United States entirely.

Read this paragraph, please.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...