Linda Yueh

Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks
@cep-lse.bsky.social research
cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...

A tale of two financial centres: Brexit uncertainty and the fragility of cross-border capital flows The UK vote to leave the EU in 2016 led to an immediate rise in economic policy uncertainty. This column examines how Brexit-related policy uncertainty affected cross-border capital flows to the UK us...

Heightened Brexit uncertainty dampened Swiss foreign investment flows to the UK. The decline is concentrated in debt flows, particularly short-term debt. Equity flows, by contrast, show no systematic or persistent response to the Brexit vote in either direction.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Geopolitics in the evaluation of international scientific collaboration International collaboration is one of modern science’s quiet superpowers. Increasingly, it is also a geopolitical flashpoint. This column presents new experimental evidence that shows both US policyma...

Science likes to picture itself as a republic of letters — open borders, shared standards, disputes settled by evidence rather than passports. Merton (1973) coined this ethos as CUDOS: Communalism, Universalism, Disinterestedness, and Organised Scepticism.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

How X’s algorithm shifts political attitudes Algorithms curate what users of social media see, raising concerns that they may distort attitudes and affect social and political outcomes. This column reports on an experiment conducted on X in the ...

As one would expect, because the algorithm maximises engagement, users who were switched from the chronological to the algorithmic feed spent more time on X compared to those who remained on the chronological feed.
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The EU's path to service growth and clean tech The US is taking actions to reshore manufacturing while largely abandoning decarbonisation. This column argues that, in response, the EU should capitalise on the potential weakening of the US role in ...

Business financing is much lower than in the US. The Savings and Investment Union is crucial to channel EU savings to productive use (EU households save €1.4 trillion annually, compared to €800 billion in the US).
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Chinese exports to the EU
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How sanctions can help stabilise global oil supply There were initial concerns that the introduction of the Russian oil price cap in 2022 would see Russia cut production, global oil supply fall, and prices spike, thus hurting oil-importing countries w...

Research finds one of the price cap’s key achievements is that it has reduced Russian export revenues without requiring universal endorsement of the sanction’s goals.
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Banking on nonbanks Nonbank financial institutions play a central role in global credit markets, raising concerns about regulatory arbitrage, financial stability, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policy. While re...

The NBFI share of global financial assets rose from 43% in 2008 to 51% in 2024. In syndicated lending, nonbanks originated about half of all loans to nonfinancial corporations in 2024, up from roughly 30% during the GFC
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Credit default swaps: Analysis and policies Credit default swap spreads have become critical benchmarks for credit risk assessment. A recent report from the European Systemic Risk Board, however, uncovers a range of imperfections in the credit ...

Credit default swaps are derivatives that transfer credit risk between counterparties, allowing long or short positions to be taken on the creditworthiness of an entity, and may be employed for hedging or speculative purposes
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The post‑pandemic inflation surge and energy price shock led to a rapid increase in nominal incomes across Europe. In progressive personal income tax (PIT) systems defined in nominal terms, this can raise effective tax rates even when real earnings are unchanged.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

AI and the distribution of income between capital and labour The swift rise of artificial intelligence is raising fundamental concerns about the future of work. This column uses data from 238 regions across 21 European countries to examine how AI-related innova...

Regions with more intense AI patenting tend to experience a decline in the labour share of income, especially in areas with a strong industrial base, indicating that AI acts as a capital-biased innovation.
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Ukraine unemployment rate
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The non-fungible token bubble: What investors actually earned The non-fungible token market exploded in 2021, but by late 2022 prices had collapsed. This column uses blockchain records for two major non-fungible token platforms to reveal what investors in the to...

This disposition effect – the well-known tendency of investors to hold losers and sell winners – has particularly severe consequences in markets where assets are unique and trading is infrequent
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Europe retains a strong global standing in several strategic industries, including healthtech, advanced manufacturing and robotics, cleantech, semiconductor equipment, aerospace, quantum and high-performance computing, and automotive

Exports of cleantech goods ($ billion)
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Why Keynes did not win the Nobel Peace Prize for "The Economic Consequences of the Peace" John Maynard Keynes was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in the 1920s for writing “The Economic Consequences of the Peace”. Yet, despite being highly ranked by the advisor of the Nobel Committee an...

The publication of JM Keynes's book The Economic Consequences of the Peace made him internationally famous. As a consequence, Keynes was nominated for the Peace Prize three years in a row, formally evaluated, and placed on the Committee’s shortlist. Yet he did not win.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Central bank digital currency, the future of money, and politics A number of concerns have been raised regarding retail central bank digital currency. These range from competition and innovation, privacy issues, and monetary sovereignty. This column argues that cen...

At its core, CBDC grants households and firms direct access to central bank liabilities in digital form. Unlike bank deposits, which are private claims convertible into central bank money, CBDC constitutes public money outright.
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Ray of hope? The rise of solar energy in China China's solar industry is a poster child for the country’s economic rise over the last four decades. The output of Chinese solar grew by 76% annually between 2004 and 2013, and by 2019 Chinese firms a...

The output of Chinese solar grew by 76% annually between 2004 and 2013, and by 2019 Chinese firms accounted for 63% of all solar panels produced worldwide. At the same time, the cost of solar has fallen by over 90%, making it competitive with fossil fuels.
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The UK’s Government’s Spring Forecast In An Uncertain World The UK economy as defined by this year's Spring Forecast

The UK’s Government’s Spring Forecast In An Uncertain World
My @itsbritforbes.bsky.social article via LBS:

www.forbes.com/sites/lbsbus...

Could the tariff war be over after the Supreme Court ruling? | London Business School The US President has been overruled on reciprocal tariffs. But Trump will continue to get his own way by other means.

My latest article for LBS Think!

Could the tariff war be over after the Supreme Court ruling?

The US President has been overruled on reciprocal tariffs. But Trump will continue to get his own way by other means.
www.london.edu/think/tariff...

The distributional consequences of cost-sharing in universal healthcare Copayments and user fees are widely used across European health systems as a way to limit public expenditures and influence utilisation. This column exploits a policy reform in Norway that increased t...

Copayments and user fees are widely used across European health systems as a way to limit public expenditures and influence utilisation.
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Rethinking existing tax schemes for political giving and charitable donations Charitable and political donations are both eligible for tax relief in many countries. This column uses survey data from France to examine responses to different fiscal incentives for donations. The a...

Political donors are significantly less sensitive to the cost of giving than charitable donors; matching subsidies increase donation amounts both for political and charitable giving, but reduce the probability of giving to a charity
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The venture capital challenge for Europe In recent decades, European firms’ share of global venture investment activity has remained flat or even declined. This gap is linked to a lower rate of return of European venture funds and concentrat...

In recent decades, European firms’ share of global venture investment activity has remained flat or even declined. This gap is linked to a lower rate of return of European venture funds and concentrated AI investments by the US and China.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Creating high-opportunity neighbourhoods: Evidence from the HOPE VI programme Income segregation in the US has increased over the past four decades, restricting access to opportunity for many low-income families. This column reports on a programme to replace high-poverty public...

Income segregation in the US has increased over the past four decades, restricting access to opportunity for many low-income families.
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The gender wage gap and what firms have to do with it Early explanations for gender wage gaps focused on human capital or career choices. This column uses data from the US and ten European countries to examine the role of firms. Across all countries cons...

US and 10 European countries to examine the role of firms. Across all countries considered, firms account for between 10% and 30% of the gender wage gap, mainly reflecting women being more likely to work at firms that pay less to all employees, irrespective of their skills.
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Geopolitical risk and supply chain diversification Geopolitical risks are reshaping global production, yet little is known about how firms reallocate their supply chains in response. Using parent-affiliate matched data on Japanese multinational corpor...

Using parent-affiliate matched data on Japanese multinational corporations from 2009–2022, research shows that firms respond to rising geopolitical risk by diversifying production from China to ASEAN economies, rather than engaging in full decoupling or reshoring.
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Ruling for the rich: Evidence of a pro-wealthy bias on the US Supreme Court There have long been concerns that US Supreme Court decisions increasingly favour economic elites. This column analyses 1,782 cases from 1953 to 2022 to examine how justices’ rulings directly shift ec...

In 1950s, Democratic- & Republican-appointed justices both sided with the wealthy in ~40% to 45% of cases. By 2022, the average Republican-appointed justice voted pro-rich roughly 70% of the time while the average Democratic-appointed justice did so about 35% of the time.
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The work-from-home wage premium Studies have found that workers typically value the option to work from home and are willing to accept sizable wage cuts in exchange for it, yet a growing literature finds that workers who work from h...

A growing literature finds that workers who work from home earn on average higher wages than workers who do not. An important part of this premium reflects occupational and educational differences since higher-paying occupations and better-educated workers more likely to WFH
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Export bans that weren't really bans: How Russia kept importing military goods Despite comprehensive export sanctions from Western allies against Russia, Western components continue to appear in Russian weapons. This column uses transaction-level Russian customs data combined wi...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered the most comprehensive export sanctions the EU and its Western allies have ever imposed. Thousands of products – from semiconductors to precision machinery – were banned
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Mortgage borrower actions dampen the impact of higher rates on monthly payments The surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic prompted many central banks to raise interest rates sharply. This column combines data from a large German bank, a borrower survey, and a letter ...

A key feature of German mortgages is the separation between the overall maturity of the loan and the length of the interest-rate fixation period. When the fixation ends, borrowers typically refinance onto a new contract.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

A tale of two financial centres: Brexit uncertainty and the fragility of cross-border capital flows The UK vote to leave the EU in 2016 led to an immediate rise in economic policy uncertainty. This column examines how Brexit-related policy uncertainty affected cross-border capital flows to the UK us...

Brexit uncertainty dampened Swiss foreign investment flows to the UK. The decline is concentrated in debt flows, particularly short-term debt. Equity flows, by contrast, show no systematic or persistent response to the Brexit vote in either direction.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...