Linda Yueh @lindayueh - Bluesky Profile

Catch my take on US tariffs from 15:30-16:00 as the presenter’s friend #bbcworldservice

07.08.2025 11:32 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Difficulty reaching an agreement meant Monetary Policy Committee had to hold 2 rate votes for the first time in its history; split over how to respond to an inflation rate soon forecasted to be double its 2% target & recent worsening of job losses, Governor led majority after 4-4-1 intermediate vote

07.08.2025 11:17 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

BREAKING: Bank of England cuts rates by 25 basis points to 4% reut.rs/3J3PMOm

07.08.2025 11:04 — 👍 9 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0

Five books to read this summer | London Business School From gripping fiction to groundbreaking social critiques, our faculty have chosen five books for your summer reading

Five books to read this summer:
www.london.edu/think/five-b... via London Business School

05.08.2025 07:55 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Forget the ‘freedom’ of freelancing, give me back my 9 to 5 Happy visions of self-employment are surrendering to a harsh reality of non-stop working and job insecurity, and many are looking for full-time work again

‘Infinite workday’
40% of people online at 6am are reviewing emails. Meetings after 8pm are up 16%, people send or receive more than 50 messages outside their “core business hours”. At 10pm, 1/3rd of workers dive back into their inboxes to prepare for the next day.
www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

03.08.2025 08:13 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

I look forward to giving a book talk at the Burford Literary Festival on Saturday 27th September - 11.00

Details at:
www.burfordlitfest.co.uk/authors/lind...

03.08.2025 07:47 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Financial Times News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics

Workers are interrupted, on average, every 2 minutes “by a meeting, email or notification”?
From trillions of anonymised productivity data points from Microsoft 365 users: 40% of those who are online at 6am are “scanning overflowing inboxes, in hopes of getting ahead”.
www.ft.com/content/9ac5...

03.08.2025 07:41 — 👍 26 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 1

The impact of the 2025 US tariff announcements on UK firms In the first half of 2025, the US and some of its trading partners announced significant changes to import tariffs. This column uses newly designed questions to study the impact of these changes on UK firms and to assess the level of trade uncertainty. On average, the majority of firms expect no material impact on their sales, investment, and prices; those that do expect it to be a relatively small negative impact. Tariffs are a new source of uncertainty for firms, although the level of uncertainty remains lower than for previous shocks such as Brexit, Covid-19, or the Russia-Ukraine war.

The effective US tariff rate on the rest of the world has increased from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 8.8% in May 2025.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:55 — 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

An alliance for open trade: How to counter Trump's tariffs The US administration’s latest threat to impose sweeping new tariffs on many of its closest allies signals a renewed embrace of aggressive unilateralism and misunderstood economics. This column argues that the only effective response is a coordinated one. Unified retaliation by a coalition of like-minded countries made up of the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea – which together account for more than 50% of all US goods exports – would be impossible for Washington to ignore and would send a powerful message that the rules-based global trading system is worth defending.

The Philippines agreed to a lopsided deal that subjects its own exports to 19% US tariffs while eliminating its own duties on US imports entirely. Such an arrangement, which Vietnam also earlier in July agreed to, violates the bedrock WTO principle of non-discrimination
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:53 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

The post-pandemic disinflation: Low sacrifice, high prices By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained low, the combination of which generated historically low sacrifice ratios (output losses per inflation reduction). These standard metrics for success, however, ignore adjustments in the price level, which rose by more after the pandemic than over the past four decades. This column discusses lessons learned from the ‘start late and then sprint’ strategy for tightening monetary policy during this period, highlighting why the price level should receive more weight when central banks evaluate strategies for responding to inflation shocks – such as new tariffs – in the future.

in the US, the PCE price index rose about 17 percentage points between early 2021 and 2025 – roughly 8 percentage points more than if inflation had stayed at 2%. This is the largest annual price-level overshoot since the 1980s
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:52 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Estimated annual strategic spending needs in the EU: Green, digital, and defence transitions
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:43 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Under pressure? Central bank independence meets blockchain prediction markets The independence of monetary authorities from political interference is a foundational principle of modern central banking, and understanding whether threats to this independence affect expectations and beliefs is important. This column uses data from the Polymarket platform, where users trade on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and possible replacement of Chair Powell, to examine how institutional credibility shapes investor expectations. Statements by Donald Trump casting the independence of the Federal Reserve into doubt translate into expectations of lower short-term interest rates but also higher long-term yields and greater expected recession risk.

Research estimates that some 10% of central banks, including formally independent central banks, are subject to political pressure in a given year. This pressure is almost always directed toward loosening monetary policy.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:42 — 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Share of second-generation immigrants reaches 10% in Luxembourg, ~8% in Belgium, Germany, Switzerland. Much lower in most Central/Eastern European countries.
~2% in Greece, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal; 3% in Italy.

Share of second-generation immigrants in 0–74 population
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:40 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Task-based returns to generative AI: Evidence from a central bank How does generative AI affect real workplace productivity? This column reports results from an experiment at the National Bank of Slovakia, where staff were randomly assigned GPT-4o access while completing routine and non-routine tasks. The model improved output quality by up to 44% and cut completion time by 21%, with the largest gains on non-routine, domain-specific work. Lower-skill staff saw the biggest quality boosts, while higher-skill colleagues saved the most time. The findings highlight how task characteristics and human capital shape the returns to AI, suggesting that productivity gains will depend not just on adoption, but on how organisations redesign work and reallocate tasks.

National Bank of Slovakia staff were randomly assigned GPT-4o access. AI improved output quality by up to 44% & cut completion time by 21%, with the largest gains on non-routine work. Lower-skill staff saw biggest quality boosts, while higher-skill colleagues saved most time
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:38 — 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

Gender-neutral economics can no longer be the default Economic research often treats tools such as tariffs, subsides, interest rates, monetary policy, and austerity measures as gender neutral. This column argues that when sex-disaggregated data and gender analysis are missing from models and policy decisions, the result is incomplete economic analysis and inequitable outcomes. What’s missing from economics isn’t just women’s voices, but women’s realities.

When tariffs reduce demand for these imports, factories close or cut jobs, it is often women in precarious, low-wage positions who lose out first. They don’t just lose income, they lose access to health care, childcare, and social protections tied to employment.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:33 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Monthly US unemployment and vacancy rates, April 1929–May 2025
Beveridge curve: at the onset of every recession, unemployment rises sharply just as job vacancies drop
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:29 — 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

The ripple beyond borders: Indirect effects of US export controls on Japanese firms As part of the ongoing US-China trade war, since 2020 the US has restricted the exports of cutting-edge semiconductors from third countries to Huawei. This column analyses the indirect effects of US export regulations on exports of Huawei suppliers in Japan. Although Japan itself did not export cutting-edge semiconductors, exports of affected suppliers declined in 2020, particularly to unaffiliated firms in China. Furthermore, Japanese suppliers shifted exports to less risky destinations, with limited impact on overall firm performance. Thus, export restrictions can have wide-ranging effects on supply chains, beyond the targeted countries and products.

Supply Chain Agreement of 2024 for Indo-Pacific stipulates “cooperation to strengthen supply chains & promote transparency in the actions & regulations of each country.” But, under Trump 2.0, it is unclear whether the IPEF-related initiatives by each country will progress.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

01.08.2025 13:28 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Four-day week ‘will be the norm in ten years’ Professor Brendan Burchell says Britain is being held back by a deeply embedded work ethic that sees being busy as ‘virtuous’ — but he insists change is coming

Unexpectedly, the data suggested that 1 day a week was enough to confer the psychological rewards associated with work, which stem from structured routines, social connections, the sense of contributing to a collective venture and building an identity.
www.thetimes.com/uk/science/a...

01.08.2025 13:18 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum

I look forward to delivering a keynote lecture at SUERF in cooperation with the European Central Bank on September 16:

www.suerf.org/events/china...

01.08.2025 12:27 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Half-days, free ice cream and more WFH as companies revive August perks Some employers are letting staff log on remotely all month to offer more summer flexibility

Half-days, free ice cream and more WFH as companies revive August perks

Some employers are letting staff log on remotely all month to offer more summer flexibility
www.ft.com/content/13d5...

What time does work finish on Fridays? 3pm if you WFH

www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

01.08.2025 08:52 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

In memory of Lord Meghnad Desai (1940–2025) - Condolences Honorary Fellow and Emeritus Professor of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science It is with deep sadness that the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) marks the ...

In memory of Lord Meghnad Desai (1940–2025)

blogs.lse.ac.uk/condolences/...

31.07.2025 15:27 — 👍 9 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1

UK exports more services than goods for the first time via @financialtimes.com

28.07.2025 06:00 — 👍 11 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0

Where economic history is being written: a network where node size represents citation impact (with bigger bubbles corresponding to a larger number of citations), colour of the bubble indicates average publication year. Clusters comprise universities with co-citations.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 12:14 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

The pricing of profit shifting Profit shifting by multinational enterprises increases after-tax earnings but can expose firms to regulatory and reputational risks. This column uses data on variations in profit shifting between 2010 and 2020 alongside global stock return data to examine how stock markets price profit shifting. The authors find that a one standard deviation increase in profit shifting is associated with 6.4% higher monthly stock returns, indicating that stock markets require compensation for the underlying risks. The identified effects become significant only after the initiation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting programme and gain further strength following the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

G7 agreement in June 2021 proposed a minimum global corporate tax rate of 15%. The OECD’s Inclusive Framework has been driving the global implementation of the minimum tax rate under Pillar Two, with several jurisdictions beginning to enforce these rules.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 12:11 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Subnational debt in turbulent times: Navigating fiscal risks and market inefficiencies Subnational governments are crucial actors in delivering public services and addressing structural challenges but are often overlooked in fiscal policy debates. This column analyses the macroeconomic pressures faced by subnational governments and their respective bond markets. It shows that persistent inflation and tight monetary conditions continue to weigh on growth and public finances in many countries. Varying debt profiles and borrowing modalities further differentiate the fiscal challenges of different jurisdictions. Structural responses aimed at long-term sustainability must emphasise improved transparency, credible fiscal rules, and strengthened frameworks that delineate subnational fiscal responsibilities and central government support limits.

Subnational governments account for nearly 40% of public investment and more than a quarter of public spending across OECD countries. They are critical actors in delivering public services and addressing long-term structural challenges, including ageing, climate adaptation.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 12:08 — 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Compared to Catholics, Pentecostals emphasise a literal interpretation of the Bible, frequent worship, and strict morals. They have also become increasingly active politically, supporting candidates and encouraging pastors to run for office.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 12:06 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Artificial intelligence and workers’ wellbeing: Lessons from Germany’s early experience Artificial intelligence may reduce the need for physically demanding tasks, but it could also erode job satisfaction, intensify cognitive load, and amplify anxiety. This column reports research on survey data from Germany, which finds no evidence that AI exposure has harmed workers’ mental health or subjective wellbeing. But looking at self-reported use of AI tools in the workplace, there are indications of declining life and job satisfaction. This suggests the need to expand current debates beyond AI’s impact on employment, productivity and wages: if it transforms work in ways that affect stress, autonomy, purpose, or health, these dimensions must become central to technology policy and labour regulation.

Research on survey data from Germany, which finds no evidence that AI exposure has harmed workers’ mental health or subjective wellbeing. But looking at self-reported use of AI tools in the workplace, there are indications of declining life and job satisfaction.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 12:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The emergence of a North–South divide in the age-profile of Europeans’ life satisfaction The traditional U-shape in wellbeing, with people’s life satisfaction lowest in their late 40s or early 50s, appeared to have been replaced around 2013-15 by wellbeing rising with age, driven by a collapse in the wellbeing of the young. This column uses survey data from 21 European countries to show while that the U-shape has indeed disappeared, by 2020–2024 it was replaced by life satisfaction rising with age in Northern European countries but falling with age in Southern Europe where the young have been getting more satisfied with life, possibly due to improvements in the youth labour market.

The traditional U-shape in wellbeing, with people’s life satisfaction lowest in their late 40s or early 50s, appeared to have been replaced around 2013-15 by wellbeing rising with age, driven by a collapse in the wellbeing of the young.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 11:58 — 👍 14 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1

Detecting hidden state aid with machine learning State aid regulation is crucial to ensuring competitiveness in the EU Single Market, but enforcement remains challenging. Non-compliance by member states and foreign subsidies are ongoing concerns; however, detection is difficult. This column proposes an approach to identify suspect cases of hidden state aid recipients using machine learning algorithms. The predictions allow regulators to substantially narrow the pool of observations for further investigation by flagging firms that appear to behave as if they received public subsidies, but are not officially recorded. The authors’ analysis reveals heterogeneity in the incidence of suspect cases across countries, industries and firm size.

EU Single Market–one of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 15% of global GDP–aims to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services, capital. But internal barriers still persist more than 30 years after the launch of the Single Market
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 11:57 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The value of words: Evidence from non-financial disclosure regulation Many studies have highlighted the role of financial, and more recently non-financial, disclosure in mitigating information asymmetries between firms and external stakeholders, but focusing primarily on large, publicly listed firms. This column exploits a 2016 Italian reform that introduced a simplified reporting regime allowing micro-firms to omit textual information on firm strategies, cost breakdowns, investment activities, and accounting choices. The reform aimed to reduce administrative burdens, but the authors find that firms adopting the simplified regime experienced reduced access to bank credit without any measurable cost savings.

2016 Italian reform introduced a simplified reporting regime allowing micro-firms to omit textual infor on strategies, cost breakdowns, investments. Bank of Italy research finds firms adopting the simplified regime experienced reduced access to bank credit & no cost savings
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

25.07.2025 11:53 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Linda Yueh

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