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Linda Yueh

@lindayueh.bsky.social

Economist at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford & London Business School Author of The #GreatCrashes & #GreatEconomists https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/024198808X/ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lindayueh IG: instagram.com/lindayueh W: www.lindayueh.com

4,154 Followers  |  211 Following  |  1,817 Posts  |  Joined: 25.11.2023  |  2.1442

Latest posts by lindayueh.bsky.social on Bluesky

Catch my take at 11:30 on UK inflation #skynews

19.11.2025 09:25 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Lessons from Denmark’s eight-hour workday reform In recent years, calls for shorter working weeks have re-emerged in Europe and elsewhere. This column examines how Denmark’s 1919 shift to the eight-hour workday affected labour market outcomes such as hourly wages, weekly earnings, and employment. Weekly earnings fell in provincial towns but less so in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher and hourly wages rose partly to offset shorter hours. Employment increased everywhere, especially among unskilled and female workers. Decentralised wage bargaining appears to have allowed for partial wage compensation and employment expansion.

Over a century ago, the introduction of 8-hour workday represented one of the most transformative labour-market reforms in industrialised countries. Workday reduced to 8 hours from up to 10 hours, a decline of as much as 12 hours per week, the largest reduction in history
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 12:07 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Supply chains and free trade agreements Studies examining the effects of free trade agreements on the activities of multinational enterprises have tended to focus on trade between home countries and their FTA partner countries. This column examines the effects of free trade agreements on local sales and exports to third countries by overseas affiliates of Japanese manufacturing multinationals. While the effects on local sales are ambiguous, regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries, suggesting that that Japanese multinationals have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks by utilising various forms of free trade agreements.

According to the WTO, 375 FTAs have been implemented as of 1 September 2025
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 12:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
The hidden costs of China’s industrial policy China uses a wide array of industrial policies, such as subsidies and regulations, to promote strategic economic sectors. This column estimates that the equivalent fiscal cost of industrial policy is about 4% of GDP per year, with support directed largely at the manufacturing sector. Different policy instruments have varying effects: subsidies tend to lead to inefficiently high production, while trade and regulatory barriers limit production to suboptimal levels. Overall, factor misallocation from industrial policies reduces domestic aggregate total factor productivity by about 1.2%. Scaling back industrial policy would lower fiscal costs and raise productivity.

China uses a wide array of industrial policies, eg subsidies, regulations, to promote strategic economic sectors. This column estimates that the equivalent fiscal cost of industrial policy is about 4% of GDP per year, with support directed largely at the manufacturing sector
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 12:01 — 👍 2    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
Navigating the 2022 inflation surge: Lessons for monetary policy frameworks The 2022 global inflation surge tested inflation-targeting frameworks under severe supply shocks. This column shows that, despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers. Instead, credibility and timely action mattered more than institutional labels. As supply shocks driven by geopolitics, climate change, and the energy transition become more frequent, inflation targeting frameworks will need to adapt and evolve to remain effective in this new environment.

Unlike past demand-driven booms, 2022 surge powered by massive supply-side shocks. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy+food prices skyrocketing, compounding lingering supply chain bottlenecks+pandemic aftershocks, triggering sharpest rise in global inflation in decades
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:59 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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Swedish household debt-to-income ratio (%)
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15.11.2025 11:58 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Frontiers of digital finance, part 1: A global perspective The digitisation of payment, trading, and settlement systems is reshaping the financial architecture. This column, the first in a two-part series, offers an overview of major trends across the world. It highlights the successful implementation of payment systems in India and Brazil. Other parts of the world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, have also made significant progress but require stronger governance and institutional capacity. Finally, the US and euro area offer two models for digital payments in advanced economies, with important questions centring around who issues new forms of digital money and how to balance privacy and stability concerns.

India and Brazil have emerged as 2 success stories in digital finance, with innovations that help address financial inclusion, identity verification, safe sharing of data. India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), launched in 2016, has improved the efficiency of payments
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:57 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Generative AI: Uneven adoption, labour market returns, and policy implications Generative AI is being adopted more rapidly than previous digital technologies and has the potential to deliver meaningful productivity gains in professional tasks, raising concerns over whether the benefits are equitably distributed across society. This column analyses Italian household survey data to show that while awareness of generative AI is high, usage is concentrated among younger, more educated and socially engaged individuals, potentially exacerbating inequalities. Targeted interventions such as digital literacy programmes, community-based training, and inclusive design could help bridge gaps, and peer networks and informal learning can also play an important role.

The European Commission’s “Digital Decade” targets aim to ensure that 80% of adults acquire basic digital skills by 2030
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:55 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Supply shocks and inflation: Timely insights from financial markets Determining the drivers of inflation in real time is a central challenge for central banks. This column introduces a new financial markets-based model to identify the types of shocks driving changes in inflation expectations in near real-time. After the initial fall in demand in 2020, supply and policy factors became key drivers of inflation expectations. As the economy reopened in 2021, supply bottlenecks kept inflation elevated, until stronger demand became the main driver from mid-2022 onward. Furthermore, it shows that pass-through to inflation varies by shock type: global value chain disruptions are especially persistent, widespread, and inflationary.

Federal Reserve began raising interest rates only when inflation had reached 7.9%, launching one of the steepest and fastest tightening cycles in its history, increasing policy rates by 5.25 percentage points over just 16 months.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:55 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
No, the EU does not impose a 45% tariff on itself A recent paper which has gathered significant attention estimates a 45% tariff equivalent of intra-EU border costs. This column argues that this estimate is likely too high and depends on the particular dataset used and specific estimation choices. Therefore, it also vastly overstates the barriers that are akin to tariffs and could be lowered as a result of European Commission policy decisions. Instead, it argues that there are more urgent reforms with larger potential benefits, such as boosting EU innovation capacity and R&D spending.

“Our greatest asset is the Single Market—but it remains unfinished. The IMF estimates that the internal barriers within the Single Market are equivalent to a 45% tariff on goods. And a 110% tariff on services.”
Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:53 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Frontiers of digital finance, part 2: Stablecoins, monetary ‘singleness’, tokenisation, and decentralised finance The digitisation of payment, trading, and settlement systems is reshaping the financial architecture. This column, the second in a two-part series, discusses recent developments in stablecoins, tokenisation, and decentralised finance. These innovations have the potential to boost competition, improve access to credit, and reduce information frictions. However, multiple risks exist, ranging from regulatory gaps, low financial literacy, and challenges to the key principle of monetary ‘singleness’. It discusses multiple ideas to address emerging risks, while preserving the key benefits offered by the rapidly evolving landscape.

A key concept in the debate on stablecoins and other forms of DeFi is the principle of singleness of money – the idea that all forms of money within a currency area, including bank deposits and digital tokens, should trade at par with the central bank’s unit of account.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:50 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Change in the regional share of votes for hard Eurosceptic parties in EU national legislative elections, 2004–2008 vs 2020–2023 electoral cycles
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:44 — 👍 5    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Certification schemes may break the link between natural resources and violent conflict Natural resources, including alluvial minerals such as diamonds, have been at the centre of brutal wars in Africa. This column evaluates one of the first schemes aimed at preventing the illicit exploitation of natural resources to promote peace: the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme. The introduction of the diamond certification scheme significantly reduced armed conflict. Rebel groups were less likely to engage in armed conflict, and their operations became geographically more concentrated. This suggests that the certification scheme was successful in limiting rebel groups’ ability to finance violent activities.

Kimberley Process emerged in the early 2000s, following mounting pressure from civil society and the United Nations to address the role of ‘blood diamonds’ in fuelling devastating wars in countries like Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sierra Leon.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:43 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
The European Union’s new fiscal rules: A fine line between brilliant masterpiece and another chapter of déjà vu The 2024 reform of the European Union’s fiscal framework promises long-term sustainability through greater national ownership and country-specific medium-term expenditure paths. This column argues, however, that its hurried implementation, lack of transparency, and weaker multilateral oversight risk undermining both credibility and coherence. Early experience suggests that while the reform represents a notable conceptual advance, its effectiveness depends on genuine political commitment and consistent enforcement – two ingredients that have repeatedly eluded Europe’s fiscal governance.

Rather than moving annual targets, central benchmark of the new EU framework is a multiannual net expenditure path – total expenditure net of interest payments, cyclical unemployment costs, and certain one-offs, adjusted for discretionary revenue measures.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:41 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Monetary policy transmission through cross-selling banks When central banks raise or lower policy rates, banks typically pass these changes through only incompletely to the interest rates they pay on customer deposits. As a result, customers tend to reduce their bank deposits following policy rate hikes and increase them following cuts. This column proposes a new framework that reconciles incomplete pass-through and deposit losses. The authors show how banks optimise not just current deposit profits but also the lifetime value of each client, and how this matters for the transmission of monetary policy.

When central banks raise or lower policy rates, banks typically pass these changes through only incompletely to interest rates they pay on customer deposits. As a result, customers tend to reduce their bank deposits following policy rate hikes & increase them following cuts
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

15.11.2025 11:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Catch my take at 10:19am on the US economy #cnninternational

15.11.2025 08:49 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Catch my take at 1pm on taxes in the upcoming Budget #lbcnews

14.11.2025 11:40 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I join the panel looking back at the business news of the week on Friday from 5:00-5:30am #wutm #bbc5live

13.11.2025 17:30 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Preview
The US-China rare earths deal shows the importance of critical materials in a new era of strategic interdependence | USAPP As resource competition sharpens, resilience and innovation will be key to navigating this new era of strategic interdependence.

Research @cep-lse.bsky.social
Rare earth elements are not geologically scarce. They could be mined more widely especially where environmental regulations are less stringent. China is largest rare-earth miner but its exports account for only ~1/3rd of global demand
blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

07.11.2025 13:07 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Research by @cep-lse.bsky.social
By the teenage years, more than half of the work penalty is explained by mothers’ need to be present and available, not by direct caregiving.
cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICA...

07.11.2025 13:03 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The most severe events reduce GDP in a region directly affected by a disaster by up to 2.2% relative to trend, with losses of around 1.7% persisting after five years
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:31 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 1
Data, power and emissions: How AI’s growth may slow down the green transition AI and other data-intensive technologies may help optimise energy use, but the technologies themselves are power hungry. This column explores how the diffusion of AI affected emissions in the US between 2002 and 2022 and finds that local AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shift from renewable to non-renewable sources. The ‘green’ promise of AI will remain elusive as long as the electricity sector itself does not rapidly decarbonise.

In the US between 2002-2022 research finds that local AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shift from renewable to non-renewable sources.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:30 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
The hidden cycle: How informality shapes fiscal policy and sovereign default The informal sector tends to expand during economic downturns and contract in recoveries, and is also highly sensitive to fiscal policy. This column explores the impact of these informality dynamics on optimal fiscal policy and the risk of sovereign default. The interaction of tax distortions and limited commitment to reimburse sovereign debt strongly constrains the dynamics of optimal fiscal policy and leads to more frequent default episodes and costly consumption fluctuations. Toning down the impact of fiscal policy on future returns to taxation or tempering the threat of default would both lead to welfare gains and more muted consumption fluctuations.

The informal sector tends to expand during economic downturns and contract in recoveries, and is also highly sensitive to fiscal policy.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:29 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
When debt perceptions shape fiscal futures Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. A smaller group of wealthier and more experienced voters demonstrates a stronger grasp of fiscal realities. Yet all groups share a common concern: that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them. These findings reveal how misinformation and memory shape the politics of debt – and why fixing fiscal policy may first require fixing public perception.

Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, research finds that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:28 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

2/ At the onset of conflict, the drop is modest (≈3.3%), but then the contraction deepens to about 16% after ten years. Consumption and investment fall sharply; exports fall by 12% and imports by 7%; and the current account deteriorates by around US $2.1 billion.

07.11.2025 09:27 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
The lasting economic scars of war Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past 75 years, this column documents large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later. Government revenues collapse while spending remains stable, forcing reliance on inflationary finance and short-term debt. The findings show that the true cost of war extends far beyond the battlefield, reshaping fiscal and monetary stability for years to come.

1/ GDP collapses from war – and does not recover
Real GDP falls by about 12% (on average) over 10 years for treated countries relative to control countries
Loss of more than $28 billion (in 2015 prices).

cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:27 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 1
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Fixed and necessary expenditures grew, but the household expenditure ratio decreased between 2019 and 2023 in the Netherlands
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:25 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
China’s shrinking oil footprint: How electric vehicle adoption is shaping China’s oil consumption Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase in oil demand during that period. But in 2024 Chinese annual oil demand declined for the first time in twenty years. This column develops a dynamic model which suggests that the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in China has been a major driver of this trend. In 2024 alone, EV diffusion displaced about 0.43 million barrels per day of gasoline, and this figure could quadruple by 2040 with an accelerated transition.

Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase in oil demand during that period. But in 2024 Chinese annual oil demand declined for the first time in twenty years.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:24 — 👍 4    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
From the China Shock to the global relocation of production: Inequality consequences Globalisation has raised living standards worldwide but has also fuelled concerns that international competition is eroding middle-class incomes and widening inequality within countries. The column shows that the international relocation of production – the shift of export capacity from higher- to lower-income economies – systematically increases within-country income inequality in the countries that originally specialised in relocated products by compressing the income shares of the middle deciles and raising the top share.

Across advanced democracies, voters in regions most exposed to import competition have become more likely to support parties sceptical of openness & multilateralism, and governments in those regions have increasingly embraced protectionist or nationalist industrial policies
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:23 — 👍 0    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
How AI can help detect warning signs of financial market stress Predicting financial market stress is a significant challenge, as traditional models often fail to capture complex and nonlinear dynamics. This column highlights two recent advances in the use of AI tools to anticipate financial market stress. The first is a novel framework using machine learning to predict financial market stress and explain the main factors driving predictions. The second integrates numerical data with textual information using large language models to forecast market stress and identify its underlying drivers. Policymakers can use these tools to monitor emerging risks in real time, combining quantitative forecasts with qualitative insights from financial news and commentary.

Financial market stress can take many forms, including liquidity shortages, price dislocations, breakdowns in arbitrage relationships. Events such as the 1998 LTCM crisis, 2008-09 global crisis, 2020 ‘dash for cash’ highlight the systemic risks posed by market dysfunction
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

07.11.2025 09:16 — 👍 4    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

@lindayueh is following 20 prominent accounts