A Monkey's Uncle

Hope you all had a good weekend! Here's my picks for today:

Pistons win prob 65%, point spread 4
Grizzlies win prob 81%, point spread 8
Rockets win prob 90%, point spread 13

#nba #nbasky

Finished last night with a brier score of 0.20, again it's a tiny sample size but that's about the score of an average Vegas book.

Happy Saturday! Here's my predictions for today:

Magic 53% win prob, 1 point spread
Sixers 60% win prob, 2 point spread
Spurs 97% win prob, 20 point spread
Pistons 91% win prob, 13 point spread
Heat 89% win prob, 12 point spread
Knicks 71% win prob, 5 point spread

#nba #nbasky

Heat win prob 56%, point spread 1
Timberwolves win prob 91%, point spread 14
Pelicans win prob 62%, point spread 3
Thunder win prob 95%, point spread 19
Lakers win prob 69%, point spread 5
Nuggets win prob 53%, point spread 1

#nba #nbasky

My new prediction model finished yesterday with a brier score of 0.23, small sample size but so far it's a little bit better than a coin flip! Here's my picks for today:

Cavs win prob 59%, point spread 2
Wizards win prob 54%, point spread 1
Grizzlies win prob 60%, point spread 2

#nba #nbasky

Continued:

Spurs: 79% win prob, 8 point spread
Magic: 79% win prob, 7 point spread
Celtics: 64% win prob, 3 point spread
Clippers: 50% win prob, 1 point spread

#nba #nbasky

Hoops are back today!

Here's my picks

Cavs: 94% win prob, 17 point spread
Pacers: 61% win prob, 2 point spread
Sixers: 58% win prob, 2 point spread
Hornets: 57% win prob, 2 point spread
Knicks: 57% win prob, 2 point spread
Raptors: 71% win prob, 5 point spread

#nba #nbasky

On top of that, there are some factors that the old version of the model was overlooking that could have been pertinent, such as key player injuries, back to backs, rest, home court advantage.

I'll be using the rest of the season to measure the accuracy of this new model. Here goes!

#nba #nbasky

While the previous model only spit out the projected winner of each matchup, this new model will not only give the winner, but also a win probability and point spread.

For example, in their matchup against the Nets coming up, the Cavs have a 94% win probability against the Nets with a spread of 16

I beefed up my prediction model quite a bit over the all star break. The previous version of my model had about 67% accuracy, which isn't terrible but still less than what I would've liked. There was also some redundancy in the stats used to calculate the winners.

Last day of games before the all star break! Got 11/14 right yesterday, here's who I have today:
Thunder
Trail Blazers
Lakers

#nba #nbasky

Got 3/4 right yesterday (lolknicks). Here's who I have picked as winners today:
Hornets
Magic
Cavs
Knicks
Pistons
Nets
Celtics
Rockets
Timberwolves
Heat
Thunder
Nuggets
Jazz
Spurs

#nba #nbasky

DeadBoi's Rookie Ladder 2/10/2026 A look at how the rookies are doing halfway through the season

Updated my rookie ladder that is trying to take a statistical and objective approach to rating rookie performance. Here's the top 5, more in the link:
1. Cooper Flagg
2. Kon Knueppel
3. VJ Edgecombe
4. Dylan Harper
5. Derik Queen

What stands out?

open.substack.com/pub/deadboid...

#nba #nbasky

Good morning everyone! Got 7/10 last night with my predictions, here's who I have today.
Knicks
Rockets
Suns
Spurs

#nba #nbasky

Last time I made predictions was on Friday and I went 4/6. Here's who I have today:
Pistons
Magic
Heat
Bulls
Pelicans
Timberwolves
Cavs
Sixers
Warriors
Thunder

#nba #nbasky

Happy Friday! I got 4/8 games right yesterday. Here's my picks for today.
Pistons
Celtics
Bucks
Timberwolves
Clippers
Grizzlies

#nba #nbasky

Cam Thomas really fell on his own sword, dude burnt his career down because he downright refused to pass the ball. #nets #netssky

Truly one of the Nets players of all time

Hang his number in the rafters, absolute legend 🫡

Got 6 of 7 games right yesterday, here's my picks for today:
Magic
Pistons
Raptors
Hawks
Rockets
Spurs
Suns
Sixers

#nba #nbasky

Went 7 for 9 with last night's batch of games, here's my picks for today:
Knicks
Timberwolves
Bucks
Celtics
Thunder
Grizzlies
Cavaliers

#nba #nbasky

Yup!

Got 2 of 4 yesterday, here's my picks for today:
Knicks
Pistons
Pacers
Heat
Lakers
Celtics
Bulls
Thunder
Warriors
Suns

#nba #nbasky

Net rating

Power Rankings 50 Games In The outlook at the halfway point

Updated my power rankings for the 50 game mark
1. OKC
2. DET
3. BOS
4. HOU
5. NYK

What else stands out?

open.substack.com/pub/deadboid...

#nba #nbasky

Bad case of the flu came through my house and took me out for the past week 😣 got 5 of 6 games right last time I made a prediction, here's my picks for today:
Hornets
Rockets
Timberwolves
Clippers

#nba #nbasky

Been feeling sick lately, haven't been able to make predictions in a while! Here's my picks for today:
Trail blazers
Knicks
Sixers
Thunder
Suns
Pistons
Clippers

#nba #nbasky

Another day of wins I didn't see coming yesterday, only got two games right. Here's my picks for today:
Pistons
Cavaliers
Celtics
Suns
Grizzlies
Thunder
Nuggets
Raptors

#nba #nbasky

A fifth ninja turtle named Caravaggio that's just an absolute dick to everyone.

🤣 You'd think them beating the Jazz should be light work. That's textbook January basketball for you.