Matthew Green

Scandals and Wedge Issues Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit.

Wedge issue + scandal = a politically fruitful topic for the minority party. An analysis of the Epstein papers affair by @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/scandals-a...

Thanks Josh!

Matthew Green Receives the 2025 Barbara Sinclair Lecture Award The Barbara Sinclair Lecture Award is presented annually to honor achievement in promoting understanding of the U.S. Congress and legislative politics.     Citation from the Award Committee: Professor Green has a distinct knack for bringing scholarly rigor to topics of contemporary importance. With his many contributions to the study of parties and leaders in Congress, it is especially appropriate to recognize Professor Green with an award honoring the legacy of Barbara Sinclair, who made so many vital contributions of her own on these topics.

Matthew Green Receives the 2025 Barbara Sinclair Lecture Award

The Barbara Sinclair Lecture Award is presented annually to honor achievement in promoting understanding of the U.S. Congress and legislative politics.     Citation from the Award Committee: Professor Green has a distinct knack for…

Partisan polarization destroys democracies. Here's how. As polarization grows, partisans struggle to respect one another, then fail to show self-restraint. Loss of these norms erodes the institutions that create free societies.

What happens when societies polarize by partisanship? First the norm of mutual tolerance erodes, then institutional forbearance. The US case is textbook under Trump 2.0, explains @jenvictor.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

I think maybe it happened on a debt ceiling bill in the late 70’s?? I’d have to check

Will the “One, Big Beautiful Bill” hurt Republicans in 2026? What political science tells us.

Here to help us really think through the potential electoral consequences of the Big Beautiful Bill, @mattngreen.bsky.social brings the social science lens you've been waiting for. @misofact.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Will the “One, Big Beautiful Bill” hurt Republicans in 2026? What political science tells us.

Will Rs who voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill pay an electoral price? My latest at Mischiefs of Faction (with refs to work by @brendannyhan.bsky.social @johnsides.bsky.social & others). open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

“If you are, by nature, a rebellious, outsider misfit how well are you going to work with other misfits?”
Great observation by
@mattngreen.bsky.social in a story by The Economist on MAGA takeover of Wyoming

The big GOP reconciliation bill is now law. Did Trump browbeat Congress into passing it? The president helped get the bill across the finish line, but so did others – and Trump used tactics with lawmakers that are typical for presidents.

@mattngreen.bsky.social argues that Trump didn't bully Congress into passing last week's reconciliation bill, nor was he the only person who helped get it enacted. misofact.substack.com/p/the-big-go...

The big GOP reconciliation bill is now law. Did Trump browbeat Congress into passing it? The president helped get the bill across the finish line, but so did others – and Trump used tactics with lawmakers that are typical for presidents.

How much credit (or blame) should Trump get for the passage of the big GOP budget bill last week? My latest at @misofact.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/the-big-go...

@jenvictor.bsky.social explains why populist governments don't necessarily pass popular laws.

I could see an argument that HFC members "folded" if one compares their votes for the bill to the expectation that they readily vote against leadership if they don't get 100% of what they want.

Bravo!

Acrobatic, rhythmic and trampoline and tumbling champions crowned as 2025 USA Gymnastics Championships conclude • USA Gymnastics Acrobatic athletes claimed all-around medals, Rin Keys completed the senior sweep in rhythmic, and Kaden Brown won his sixth straight tumbling title Saturday to conclude competition at the 2025 USA Gy...

National Champions were crowned across three disciplines as #USAGymChamps concluded on Saturday night in Providence, Rhode Island!

Read More! ⤵️

Do Voters Support the “One Big Beautiful Bill”? And Does it Matter? Lawmakers respond to many inputs. The public’s preferences are just one of them.

@mattngreen.bsky.social asks, do voters support the GOP's "One Big Beautiful Bill"? And if not, does it matter? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Do Voters Support the “One Big Beautiful Bill”? And Does it Matter? Lawmakers respond to many inputs. The public’s preferences are just one of them.

Do voters support the GOP reconciliation bill, and does it matter? My latest at Mischiefs of Faction. misofact.substack.com/p/do-voters-...

When Reputation Trumps Policy: Party Productivity Brand and the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act In late 2017, congressional Republicans enacted a major tax bill despite voter opposition, resistance from organized interests, and considerable uncertainty about its policy consequences. Why did they...

Indeed they were! I coauthored a paper about that tax bill and why it passed despite being pretty unpopular: www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

Military parade starting soon and there’s still lots of parking available at the neighborhood metro.

Meanwhile, just a half mile away…

Popular ChatGPT keywords suggest AI use for writing political science academic articles
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Wow. I’ve never seen the WaPo do that before. If the reporters thought Levitsky was too biased to be quoted, why did they interview him in the first place?

House passes pair of bills in rebuke to DC - Roll Call The House took aim at Washington, D.C.’s autonomy Tuesday, passing two bills that would overturn local laws.

Once again, lawmakers using their power over D.C. (a) for a position-taking opportunity and/or (b) to implement policy outcomes they could or would not implement their own districts. rollcall.com/2025/06/10/h...

In part 2 of my series about Congress pushing back against the executive branch, I take a look at what congressional Republicans have (not) done so far.

Start shopping, saving, and reading today! kansaspress.ku.edu

What the giant House spending bill tells us about Republicans’ vision for America Why it’s a bad idea to let the guy who bankrupted casinos run your fiscal house, in four charts.

Can the US afford the "Big Beautiful Bill?" @jenvictor.bsky.social breaks it down. [Spoiler: No.]
open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

How shrinking the government adds power to the presidency Asserting authority to cut government is DOGE's most profound accomplishment to date

“Trump math”—how federal cuts are an expansion of the executive power. @jenvictor.bsky.social explains.

open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Yuval Levin has long been an advocate for checks and balances. He came out against Trump in 2016.

Thank you! The counterfactual claims in that review (and I guess in the book - haven’t read it yet) really stuck in my craw.

Board games are great fun and an excellent learning tool -- but the domestic board game industry, like so many others, are threatened by Trump's tariffs. My latest at @misofact.bsky.social.

When faced with illegal/controversial behavior by DT, most Rs in Congress either feign ignorance, defend Trump, or say they are powerless to do anything. The Speaker did all three in just one statement - impressive!