Alexander H. Montgomery

What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control

In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?

My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Tired: Blowing up Osiraq, declaring Iraq denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized

Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network Abstract. The nuclear nonproliferation regime has come under attack from proliferation determinists, who argue that resolute proliferants connected by decentralized networks can be stopped only throug...

@alexmontgomery.bsky.social's work on proliferation networks & nuclear technology acquisition is super relevant here.

"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."

Wasn’t it created at GMU? Should t you get lifetime free storage?

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Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵

Launching the Future Security Scenarios Lab: Meeting Today’s RAND Moment The Future Security Scenarios Lab advances a multidisciplinary approach to tackle complex security challenges through advanced technologies

🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.

Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity

Why do AI company logos look like buttholes? A humorous exploration of the uncanny resemblance between AI company logos and human anatomy. Discover why circular, gradient-based designs dominate the AI industry, and what this design convergence t...

Probably created by an AI company logo designer.

I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!

If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.

#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL

@elkeschwarz.bsky.social has the right analogy for the tech elite’s attitude towards everyone else: they want to treat us all like NPCs.

Same deduction I made. Would love to see any open source evidence of this.

TIL that nuclear umbrella is “parapluie nucléaire” in French. Which is amazing. 🤯

In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.

The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen You have to laugh to keep from crying.

The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen gizmodo.com/the-best-mem...

Devs say AI crawlers dominate traffic, forcing blocks on entire countries AI bots hungry for data are taking down sites by accident, but humans are fighting back.

If your project requires doing something like this (immoral if not illegal) to function, your project is not sustainable, and deserves to be stuck in a Nepenthes-style trap.

I hate it when my work gets more relevant.

AI coding assistant refuses to write code, tells user to learn programming instead Cursor AI tells user, “I cannot generate code for you, as that would be completing your work.”…

As I tell my students:

“My advice? Reinforce your roof, buy a stronger umbrella, and pack a parachute.”
h/t @elkeschwarz.bsky.social

Bumper sticker: "Take me back to simpler times when all we had to worry about was nuclear annihilation"

A different reason for missing the Cold War than what Mearsheimer predicted, but I'm still missing the 80s—despite the foundations that were laid then for the current chaos.

I was just about to look up the current Polity score for my lecture on the democratic peace.

I guess when we attack Denmark over Greenland that won’t be a problem (for the theory)…

www.systemicpeace.org

Picture of an atomic bomb with the caption "Ceci n'est pas une bombe atomique"

I would be remiss if I didn't include a picture that @wellerstein.bsky.social shared that partially inspired the title.

My coauthor @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social beat me to it, and probably summarized it better than I would have. If eprints run out, send me a DM! My only addition is to share my favorite figure—our slight reworking of Jervis's "four worlds" @dhnexon.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social

An excellent thread on a historian's view of the new IO nuclear non-use piece and the wider literature by @colleen-larkin.bsky.social and not-on-bluesky-yet Stacie Goddard

I’m definitely gonna FOIA whatever you just redacted

It’s here!! My essay with Stacie Goddard on pathways of nuclear nonuse @iojournal.bsky.social

You didn’t accidentally borrow one of the “with zombies” versions, did you?

Instructions for correcting a proof... with the word "correcting" misspelled

From the copy-editing and proof review instructions of a new piece I have coming out. Editor, correct thyself?

It’s the OLED-industrial complex trying to get you to buy a new TV. And some blackout curtains.

Excellent post with a reminder at the end: “When you’re trying to develop a measure of intelligence, it’s essential, though difficult, to avoid Goodhart’s law: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” As a community of AI researchers, we really need to figure that one out.”

It’s a lovely town! Lincoln County voted 57% for Harris, a rate higher than the state average. A good reminder that racists are, well, everywhere. The sheriff didn’t run for reelection, but endorsed his deputy, who ran unopposed. So… not a surprise. @dandrezner.bsky.social