Alexander H. Montgomery

When @jenvictor.bsky.social discusses American political networks, pull up a seat!

I would be remiss if I didn't mention that @dandrezner.bsky.social pinned it: bsky.app/profile/dand...

I suspect @dexeve.bsky.social may be right here regarding what Trump thinks he has asked the DoD to do, although I wouldn't go so far as to say "certainly." It would make more sense than underground testing as a "on an equal basis" since... neither Russia nor China has restarted testing.

Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...

The United States has tested more weapons than every other country combined, and has the most robust science based stockpile stewardship program. Restarting testing would erode the US lead. www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/n...

Close!

Sylvester and the Magic Pebble - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvest...

Satellite shows what’s really happening at the East Wing of the White House “Now it looks like the White House is physically being destroyed.”…

“Users often turn to satellite imagery from companies like Planet Labs to find out what’s going on in war zones, countries ruled by authoritarian regimes, or in the aftermath of a natural disaster.” Spot on, except the disaster is man-made in this case…

Astute analysis of the implications of Hegfest: a military that will be instructed to violate domestic and international law.

If you are protesting, read this. “In short, it’s important to have a threat model, know the risks you’re taking, and take proportionate steps to mitigate those risks. Don’t be visually identifiable, do your best not to be digitally identifiable, and be mindful of who and where you photograph.”

Federal Agents Amass in Portland, Local Officials Say President Donald Trump has dispatched federal agents to Portland, local elected officials said in a hastily scheduled press conference on Friday night

Senator Merkley: “This is the ‘Don’t take the bait’ press conference … Their goal is to create an engagement—an engagement that will lead to conflict. President Trump has one goal. His goal is to make Portland look like what he’s been describing it as. Let’s not grant him that wish.”

Portland to issue violation against ICE facility under siege by Antifa extremists | Blaze Media 'I am proud of our team for conducting a thorough, thoughtful investigation.'

The city is issuing a violation to said facility for exceeding the requirement that “detainees to be kept overnight or held for more than 12 hours."

Federal cops ‘instigating’ confrontations with protesters outside ICE building, Portland police official says in court Assistant Chief Craig Dobson said federal officers were “causing some of the ruckus” at the ongoing protests.

I guess it’s Portland’s turn. As a reminder, this federal invasion is based on protests outside of a single ICE facility, where *PDX police* have reported that federal agents are instigating confrontations.

NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.

tl;dr: Countervailing efforts of states and regimes as well as properties of these technologies and their potential users tend to limit the likelihood and effects of diffusion; the net effect over time of introducing novel technologies on proliferation or nonproliferation is likely to be small.

My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social

What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control

In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?

My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Tired: Blowing up Osiraq, declaring Iraq denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized

Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network Abstract. The nuclear nonproliferation regime has come under attack from proliferation determinists, who argue that resolute proliferants connected by decentralized networks can be stopped only throug...

@alexmontgomery.bsky.social's work on proliferation networks & nuclear technology acquisition is super relevant here.

"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."

Wasn’t it created at GMU? Should t you get lifetime free storage?

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Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵

Launching the Future Security Scenarios Lab: Meeting Today’s RAND Moment The Future Security Scenarios Lab advances a multidisciplinary approach to tackle complex security challenges through advanced technologies

🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.

Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity

Why do AI company logos look like buttholes? A humorous exploration of the uncanny resemblance between AI company logos and human anatomy. Discover why circular, gradient-based designs dominate the AI industry, and what this design convergence t...

Probably created by an AI company logo designer.

I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!

If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.

#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL

@elkeschwarz.bsky.social has the right analogy for the tech elite’s attitude towards everyone else: they want to treat us all like NPCs.

Same deduction I made. Would love to see any open source evidence of this.

TIL that nuclear umbrella is “parapluie nucléaire” in French. Which is amazing. 🤯

In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.

The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen You have to laugh to keep from crying.

The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen gizmodo.com/the-best-mem...