Richard Davy

The map shows the spatial pattern of median conditions for the selected month, while the lower panel tracks how the season may evolve at your chosen location.

You can:
• Jump between different ski resorts (like Myrkdalen in the screenshot)
• Switch to major Nordic cities
• Or just click anywhere on the map to get a local forecast time series for that spot

The tool uses ECMWF’s 51-member seasonal ensemble and summarises the range of possible conditions each month.

In the time series you see the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles, so you get a sense of the spread.

Winter has arrived properly in Norway this week ❄️ After a few days of heavy snow it already feels like mid-season, so it’s time to look a bit further ahead.

I’ve built a small interactive tool to explore ECMWF seasonal snow forecasts for the Nordics:
climatecompass.shinyapps.io/Snow_Depth_F...

On car sizes

Permanent position as researcher in Climate Prediction  (289560) | Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Job title: Permanent position as researcher in Climate Prediction  (289560), Employer: Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Deadline: Sunday, December 7, 2025

We are recruiting! (x2)
There are two permanent positions available in our climate dynamics and prediction group, so if either sounds interesting to you do apply, or share with your colleagues:
www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

We all get poorer every time a climate disaster strikes Long-term economic effects of global warming could be far greater than thought, making many countries poorer and hurting even those of us spared direct impacts

Sarcasm aside, it's perhaps worth pointing out that the evidence suggests that weather disasters reduce economic growth for decades - the idea that there's rapid bounceback, or even extra growth stimulated by recovery, has proved wrong

www.newscientist.com/article/mg23...

Post from Threads user rodneyowl: "Ireland has declared the Basic Income for Artists scheme permanent. This will be officially announced in tomorrow’s budget. Details to follow. Congratulations to all who fought for it and the present and future artists of all sorts in Ireland. That includes me 👌We’re just comin to the end of a 3 year pilot scheme. It’s been a roaring success. For every €1 paid out to the 2000 participants, the government got €1.46 back. Can’t argue with that. Other countries are already taking note."

Damn. This is amazing. £325 per week, paid monthly, for 3 years - and the result was a profit for the Irish economy:
www.citizensinformation.ie/en/employmen...

A recipe for avoiding 15 million deaths a year and climate disaster is fixing food, scientists say Scientists are presenting new evidence that the worst effects of climate change can’t be avoided without a major transformation of food systems.

A reality check for me was working with students on an internal carbon accounting platform that Bon App our food provider uses. Beef was less than 5% of our purchases but around 50% of our food emissions even with international work to be plant forward.

apnews.com/article/plan...

The real headline is there in the article:

“The wealthiest are increasing their wealth faster than any other group.”

That’s the story. Not the meaningless number.

So when we say the richest 1% hold $52 trillion, we just check out. It sounds like monopoly money.
We’re not wired to understand exponential scales — and that’s exactly how the story slips past us.

Who has a sense of what $52 trillion means?
It’s too big, too abstract. Even billion vs. million is a scale most people can’t intuitively grasp — a billion seconds is 31 years; a million seconds is 12 days.

Growing wealth inequality is devastating for societies.

But with headlines like “the wealth of the top 1% reached $52 trillion”, the topic gets ignored — because those numbers mean absolutely nothing to anyone.

I am happy to announce that we received major funding from Schmidt Sciences under their VICC program to study rapid #Permafrost Thaw Carbon Trajectories (PeTCaT). The 5-year project led by my team @awi.de partners with an international team to quantify how rapid thaw contributes to climate change.

Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially ...

Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

By applying a tracking method to both climate models and satellite data, @davyclimate.bsky.social found that sea ice age is a more sensitive indicator of change than ice thickness or volume.

🧪🌊 Read the publication here: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

Evaluating seasonal forecast improvements over the past two decades We have analysed the performance of operational seasonal forecasting models since their inception. Clear improvements are measured through the different model eras, particularly in the Tropics. For t....

Are you interested in seasonal forecasts and how they have advanced over the past two decades?
Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

From a poster called “just shower thoughts“ reading: when people talk about traveling to the past, they worry about radically, changing the present by doing something small, barely anyone in the present to really thinks that they can radically change the future by doing something small.

I may have found my defining quote.

Pair this with my pinned post and you will see what I mean!

Thanks to the fantastic team at NERSC, Jakob Dörr, and Philipp Griewank.
If you’re working on climate dynamics, prediction, or sea ice processes, I’d love to hear your thoughts on how sea ice age could play a role in your work.

#Arctic #SeaIce #ClimatePrediction #ClimateModels #ESA #SAGE

This work also launches us into our new ESA project, SAGE, where we’ll dig deeper into how sea ice age can reshape the way we evaluate and improve climate models. Stay tuned. 🌍❄️

Most exciting: sea ice age reveals low-frequency variability in the Arctic (see Fig. 5 in our paper). This opens a new window into decadal-scale fluctuations — crucial for improving #ClimatePrediction systems.

For the first time, we applied the same ice-tracking algorithm to both model output & satellite observations. This fair, like-for-like comparison reduces long-standing biases and shows that sea ice age captures dynamics thickness & volume alone cannot.

Sea ice age is more than just a number — it integrates the dynamic + thermodynamic processes shaping Arctic sea ice. Unlike area or thickness, it can’t easily be tuned in models. Age emerges from the cumulative history of growth, melt & drift. A tough benchmark for climate models.

A Fair Assessment of Sea Ice Age Reduces Bias and Gives New Insight to Arctic Sea Ice Dynamics We applied the same algorithm for diagnosing sea ice age in observations to a climate model for the first time The derived sea ice age reproduces the model dynamics but has much lower bias compar...

We have a new paper out today taking a fresh look at sea ice age, showing how this variable offers new insights into Arctic climate change:
A Fair Assessment of Sea Ice Age Reduces Bias and Gives New Insight to Arctic Sea Ice Dynamics
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

I'll be talking this afternoon about challenges in interpreting and making fair comparisons of sea ice age between climate models and observations, and demonstrating one way to resolve this using a common definition of sea ice age (paper out soon).

@signeaaboe.bsky.social kicking off the Sea ice Age (SAGE) project webinar to discuss current challenges and opportunities in using age to monitor sea ice change.
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

#ESA #SeaIce

If you had the opportunity to educate the sustainable investing community about one fact, what would you want ensure it knew, above all else? My nomination: The large-scale, economy-wide asset devaluations that economists & climate scientists say will ensue if we fail to accelerate decarbonization.

Those late summer rains do make for a dramatic sky

very intense night in Greenland a few days ago. I say 'night' because this light lasted all night.

I have been building tools to help visualize what different warming scenarios might mean for the park manager's priorities like wild salmon, river access, and forest fires:

seasonalforecastsfornorway.shinyapps.io/Reisa_app/