Franck Portier

Graphs of productivity growth and US carbon emissions. Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have made in terms of lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This column proposes a method to embed those efficiency gains into existing productivity measures. For traditional (small) estimates of the cost of climate change, the adjustment to productivity for emissions is small. When quantified using recent (high) estimates of the economic costs of climate change, emissions-adjusted productivity growth has accelerated – rather than slowed down – in recent years.

@deriddermaarten.bsky.social & Łukasz Rachel show that when quantified using recent estimates of the costs of #climatechange, emissions-adjusted productivity #growth has accelerated in recent years.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!

As often, you are right Tim.

A cold day in Minneapolis, but beautiful...

I suspect Kim is only interested in engineering exogenous variations in tariffs to better estimate trade elasticities.

📢CALL FOR PAPERS

The Economic Journal Special issue: Climate Change and Inequality
📅Deadline: 28 February 2025
Editor: @albertobisin.bsky.social
➡️Learn more and submit: bit.ly/3YKS3lR

@oupprimary.bsky.social #EconSky

#Econtwitter I forgot: Paul is presenting « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation » @nberpubs Macroannual conf on Friday. Check out there for program, Youtube channel, etc…
t.co/1jVAhdQ8Ju

A link to the paper @ nber
www.nber.org/papers/w32322

A link to the paper @ cepr t.co/0kQjKNktdy

Lesson for monetary policy: raising interest rates to reduce labour market tightness is ineffective. One would have needed to curb down inflation expectations. Communication may be key (nothing in the paper on this).
Thanks for your time. 9/9

With a bit of deviation from full knowledge of the true model of the economy, this generates persistent quasi self-fulfilling inflation episodes. A full model is estimated and shows the dominant role of broad-based supply shock in the recent period. 8/9

Confronted with an increase in many prices, agents put more weight on inflation being high, and revise accordingly their expectations Expectations then feed back into actual inflation. 7/9

Here is our conjecture: agents form expectations by trying to extract a common component from disaggregated price data. Let’s assume that there are broad-based supply shocks increasing many (but not all) prices. 6/9

We then show that given flatness and non persistent supply shocks, a Rat. Exp. model of the Phillips Curve cannot account for the recent inflationary episode.
So it seems we need to rethink our modelling of inflation expectations. 5/9

(c) Inflation expectations (one-year ahead), as measured from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, are persistent and account for most of the recent inflation episode.
We confirm these results using some less structural VAR analysis. 4/9

(b) supply shocks (the residuals from the PC) are almost iid: they cannot account for the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations. (hence the team transitory view) 3/9

Take a New-Keynesian Phillips curve as a measurement tool: we observe that:
(a) the Phillips curve is (very) flat and hasn’t steepened: output gaps cannot account for the recent bout of inflation. 2/9

A thread on our recent cepr/nber paper « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation »  with Paul Beaudry and Sev Hou. We aim at explaining US inflation dynamics in general and more specifically after 2020. #Econtwitter 1/9

Vacancy for special issues editor at the EJ! res.org.uk/the-economic...

San Antonio is treating well macroeconomists at the #ASSA2024 : Patinkin playing at the Tobin center!

Congratulations Christoph. English academia will miss you.

#EconSky 📉📈
Great virtual issue of the EJ that collects best recent papers published in the EJ on income and wealth distribution. Foreword by F. Lippi and F. Portier.
All articles in this virtual issue will be Free-to View for a limited time only, until May 2024. Don’t miss it!

👉 bit.ly/3Rk5cQj

In his jmp, Guglielmo studies returns to vocational education in England. Exploiting variation in distance to the nearest vocational/academic provider, he measures causal returns to vocational educ. for students at the margin with academic educ./at the margin with quitting educ.

In his jmp, Andrea explores teachers’ instructional decisions and their implications for the distribution of student achievement. He uses unique data from US elementary schools and estimates an equilibrium model of teacher instructional choices, student effort and achievement.

In her jmp, Morgane studies the impact of work-from-home on households' consumption, wealth and housing decisions, both in the short and long-run. She uses detailed UK property-level housing data and a heterogeneous agent model with endogenous housing tenure and city geography.

In his jmp, Jon studies whether unemployment insurance should vary over the business cycle. He derives sufficient statistics formulae and quantifies main forces at play exploiting the large variation in unemployment rate over time and across regions in Spain btw 2005 and 2017.

In his jmp, Lorenzo studies a large place-based industrial policy aimed at establishing industrial clusters in Italy in the 60-70s. Results shows agglomeration of workers/firms in targeted areas persisted well after its termination, with spillover from manufacturing to services.

In his jmp, Wenhao uses data and model of altruism within networks to study the evolution of patrilineal kinship in facilitating male marriages in 19th-century China amid development spurred by a forced port opening.

In his jmp, Nick establishes a relationship between individuals’ beliefs for what type of political system should govern their country and extreme weather events, such as droughts. In the context of sub-Saharan Africa, he uses Afrobarometer and granular weather data.

Please allow me to take a few minutes of your time to introduce the UCL economists that will be on the market this year. You won’t regret taking a close look at their application to your institution. Here they are, in alphabetic order.