Jeff Fischer

Following Ferrari's largest one-day decline since coming public in 2014, RACE still trades at 50 times forward free cash flow estimates. An index-beating buy? You tell me. I was hoping to find it below 30 times.

Credo’s Q1 of 2026 points to strong growth this year as the need for data center connections grows quickly and its tech takes center stage. Strong results, and pricey stock now, having doubled this summer. Still holding, though.

With its strong Hoka and Ugg brands, DECK remains a growing shoe company with strong free cash flow, steady share buybacks, and a forward P/FCF of 15. I'm looking to own some for the long haul soon -- planning to buy some shares, write some puts. Tariff concerns hit it early.

I look forward to David Gardner's new book, "Rule Breaker Investing." To learn how to spot the most promising, fast-growing companies early (as it did with Amazon, Nvidia, Netflix, etc), along with a strategy that helps you buy and *keep* the stocks, the book publishes on Sept. 16. Check it out!

Here's a look at Affirm (AFRM) turning GAAP profitable last quarter, while annual free cash flow and margins grow. Obviously, consumer spending drives this business, but it'll be interesting to see if more people rely on it for delayed payments during recessions. That vs. less spending.

You can also reinvest option income, of course, and many key long-term stock holdings I first obtained through option writing. They’re a tool that pays you as you use them strategically. Best for established portfolios, imo. Great for later in life.

It’s key to own stocks for years and rarely sell, imo. Options are a pretty “easy” income strategy to add to them, and especially great if you want to take cash out without selling any stocks.

I tend to own stocks for years, decades even, and use options along side on some of the stocks for just as long, even some for more than a decade now.

Here's an updated look at price/free cash flow multiples, and one-year estimates, on several companies mentioned here.

With the stock slipping to $870, $NOW is trading at 39 times expected free cash flow (the green line). FCF has grown at a nearly 30% CAGR. The company is monetizing AI well, and seems likely to keep growing well despite its size. I'm glad to own it for the long term.

Affirm (AFRM) is nearing positive net income a few years after reaching positive free cash flow, with a 59% revenue CAGR since 2019.

Yes. In a much longer post about this on X, I basically said exactly that. :) One way to own them all. But I still also like choosing.

As the S&P 500 reaches a new high today, here are some of the big winners over the years that I didn't buy or didn't keep that are likely to keep on winning (that I should still consider): BRK, MSFT, TDG, ORLY, ODFL, TT, IBP, NDAQ, CSL, CBOE, FTNT, CSL, BKNG, APH, ZS, RACE...

Visa (V) since its 2008 IPO: Steady revenue growth (2020 is the only down year), leaping FCF, and FCF multiples mostly in the 20s. As explained in its filings when it went public, cash flow was muted in part due to an ownership structure that it was shedding in going public.

Nike (NKE) has sported choppy free cash flow, and in the last 15 years, FCF has only grown 4.5% annualized (in-line with revenue growth). At $72, the stock is at 35 times forward FCF, aligned with the mid-30s multiple where it has often traded. But can it reignite better growth ahead?

Fear for the future of UBER today reminds me of fear for the future of ORLY many years ago (which I fell prey to).

“ORLY will be crushed by Amazon and electric cars.”

“UBER will be crushed by Tesla and autonomous cars.”

So often, free cash flow directs the share price, and value multiples and price appreciation reflect the FCF growth rate. AVGO is priced at 34 times FCF, with a FCF CAGR of 33%, driving a share price CAGR of 35%.

PINS, with key metrics trending in the right direction, fetches a reasonable 20 times NTM free cash flow and 18 times estimated earnings.

A lot is trending well at UBER while it trades at 16.7 times NTM free cash flow estimates, or a forward FCF yield of 6%.

I do still hold MDT, and several others, but MDT has become insignificant in the port, and has (as you know) underperformed a long time. Good yield, though.

Here are some long-term stock holdings I’m still optimistic to hold: V, MA, AXP, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, PAYC, TTD, ORCL (surprisingly), MELI, META, NOW, GOOG, VRSN, ADBE, VRSK, CME…

If you have a 1,000% gain on a stock, and it gains another 100%, many would think that’s a 1,100% gain. But it’s up 2,000% at that point. It went from 10x your original investment to 20x.

NOW is one of the best software growth stories out there.

CRDO is a rare case where GAAP net income and FCF arrive right as revenue hits an inflection point and jumps. With three hyperscalers as core customers, including MSFT and AMZN, and two more expected to sign on in FY26 (which just started), Credo looks promising.

Not the best environment to have jobless claims at an 8-month high — and Challenger layoffs running 80% above last year.

There's no guarantee GMS will grow again, though.

Last quarter, again the company foresaw a single-digit decline in GMS ahead. When it seems that GMS growth will finally resume (assuming it does), shares are bound to take off. Investors will probably foresee it a few quarters early. So, owning it and waiting is really the only reasonable approach.

$ETSY is an interesting story. The company has not been able to grow gross merchandise sales (GMS) since Q1 2022 (Pandemic bump), but has slowly grown revenue regardless. There are limits to its take rate, though. It has strong FCF, and fetches only 8x FCF.

PAYC has been in price recovery mode, with the stock up 26% YTD, and 78% the past year. Now at 37x trailing and forward FCF, it no longer looks cheap unless growth accelerates. (I own shares.)