Jeff Fischer

One bullish argument for SaaS is: when it's easier to write code, you can derive more value per employee, while adding more features/revenue opportunities to your products.

My favorite A stocks:

AFRM

APP (though I still can’t believe it myself; but it has helped as $TTD languishes)

ABNB (mostly for option income the past year+, but the stock has LT promise)

Of course, AXP and AMZN as long-term holds.

My favorite F stock: FIGR.

Prices of recent listings often hit interesting levels at some point in their first few years. AFRM was as low as $9 in 2023, for instance. Most of the speculative IPOs are not for me, but strong revenue growth and emerging FCF and earnings will get my attention.

I enjoy following IPOs, anything on the market less than a few years, and find the majority of my new purchases among them, even if (in the past) they've often been big names already (V, MA, GOOG, META, RDDT, etc).

Recent IPOs are all well below their IPO prices, including StubHub, Klarna, Fermi, Navan and Gemini Space Station. STUB has been halved; KLAR is down 33%. CRCL is also far below highs. Of the 20 largest IPOs the last six months, only two are up, including FIGR.

On its financial marketplaces, here's a look at FIGR's partner count and dollar volume growth.

It's rare to see an IPO that's as profitable as Figure (FIGR) is so early in its march to grow revenue -- and on a GAAP basis.

I see why you’d ask that, but I was mainly tying to show how much individual stock selection matters to results. And how surprising the outcomes can be. That said, ADBE is historically cheap now, but fears over AI hitting its revenue need to be proven wrong, and that’ll require time.

Visa (V) just increased its dividend by 13.5%, to $2.68 per share. Since its 2008 IPO, Visa's dividend has increased every year, at a CAGR of ~17.5%. If you bought shares during 2008, the dividend now pays about a 15% annual return on your starting capital, while the stock is up 2,000%+.

NVDA since Jan. 1, 2020: +3,317%.
CLS, even better: +3,838%.
While ADBE is up 9%.

Following Ferrari's largest one-day decline since coming public in 2014, RACE still trades at 50 times forward free cash flow estimates. An index-beating buy? You tell me. I was hoping to find it below 30 times.

Credo’s Q1 of 2026 points to strong growth this year as the need for data center connections grows quickly and its tech takes center stage. Strong results, and pricey stock now, having doubled this summer. Still holding, though.

With its strong Hoka and Ugg brands, DECK remains a growing shoe company with strong free cash flow, steady share buybacks, and a forward P/FCF of 15. I'm looking to own some for the long haul soon -- planning to buy some shares, write some puts. Tariff concerns hit it early.

I look forward to David Gardner's new book, "Rule Breaker Investing." To learn how to spot the most promising, fast-growing companies early (as it did with Amazon, Nvidia, Netflix, etc), along with a strategy that helps you buy and *keep* the stocks, the book publishes on Sept. 16. Check it out!

Here's a look at Affirm (AFRM) turning GAAP profitable last quarter, while annual free cash flow and margins grow. Obviously, consumer spending drives this business, but it'll be interesting to see if more people rely on it for delayed payments during recessions. That vs. less spending.

You can also reinvest option income, of course, and many key long-term stock holdings I first obtained through option writing. They’re a tool that pays you as you use them strategically. Best for established portfolios, imo. Great for later in life.

It’s key to own stocks for years and rarely sell, imo. Options are a pretty “easy” income strategy to add to them, and especially great if you want to take cash out without selling any stocks.

I tend to own stocks for years, decades even, and use options along side on some of the stocks for just as long, even some for more than a decade now.

Here's an updated look at price/free cash flow multiples, and one-year estimates, on several companies mentioned here.

With the stock slipping to $870, $NOW is trading at 39 times expected free cash flow (the green line). FCF has grown at a nearly 30% CAGR. The company is monetizing AI well, and seems likely to keep growing well despite its size. I'm glad to own it for the long term.

Affirm (AFRM) is nearing positive net income a few years after reaching positive free cash flow, with a 59% revenue CAGR since 2019.

Yes. In a much longer post about this on X, I basically said exactly that. :) One way to own them all. But I still also like choosing.

As the S&P 500 reaches a new high today, here are some of the big winners over the years that I didn't buy or didn't keep that are likely to keep on winning (that I should still consider): BRK, MSFT, TDG, ORLY, ODFL, TT, IBP, NDAQ, CSL, CBOE, FTNT, CSL, BKNG, APH, ZS, RACE...

Visa (V) since its 2008 IPO: Steady revenue growth (2020 is the only down year), leaping FCF, and FCF multiples mostly in the 20s. As explained in its filings when it went public, cash flow was muted in part due to an ownership structure that it was shedding in going public.

Nike (NKE) has sported choppy free cash flow, and in the last 15 years, FCF has only grown 4.5% annualized (in-line with revenue growth). At $72, the stock is at 35 times forward FCF, aligned with the mid-30s multiple where it has often traded. But can it reignite better growth ahead?

Fear for the future of UBER today reminds me of fear for the future of ORLY many years ago (which I fell prey to).

“ORLY will be crushed by Amazon and electric cars.”

“UBER will be crushed by Tesla and autonomous cars.”

So often, free cash flow directs the share price, and value multiples and price appreciation reflect the FCF growth rate. AVGO is priced at 34 times FCF, with a FCF CAGR of 33%, driving a share price CAGR of 35%.

PINS, with key metrics trending in the right direction, fetches a reasonable 20 times NTM free cash flow and 18 times estimated earnings.

A lot is trending well at UBER while it trades at 16.7 times NTM free cash flow estimates, or a forward FCF yield of 6%.

I do still hold MDT, and several others, but MDT has become insignificant in the port, and has (as you know) underperformed a long time. Good yield, though.