Tzvi Machlin

Wow no Outstanding performance for Yoshinofuji despite his kinboshi. That surprises me.

You won't find a bigger fan of Aonishiki during his match against Kotozakura than Hoshoryu lol. He's going to be pissed if his first Yokozuna yusho comes without fighting on Day 15.

Even Hoshoryu won't be happy with this one. The only way he'll leave satisfied is if he beats Aonishiki in a playoff.
The other 2 options are:
1. He wins the title without fighting (lame)
2. He loses a playoff to Aonishiki (worse)

Hosh might unironically be the biggest Aonishiki fan tonight. #sumo

Late Breaking Sumo News: Onosato withdraws from Day 15, Hoshoryu gets the win by default. Now Hoshoryu can win the yusho without fighting. Aonishiki must beat Kotozakura to force a playoff and then beat Hoshoryu to win the cup.

Updated Day 15 November yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 75%
Aonoshiki 25%

#sumo

I like to joke that the sumo kami did that as an apology to Aonishiki getting screwed on Day 13 lol

I'm lovingly referring to it as "The Triangle of Zen" - Hoshoryu beats Onosato beats Aonishiki beats Hoshoryu... and anyone who breaks the cycle wins the yusho.

See I actually believe that Onosato and Hoshoryu are about even on odds because Hoshoryu has beaten Onosato so many times that he's confident he can do it again (in spite of Onosato winning their last meeting).
I think that Onosato's head game may be off after that loss to Kotozakura.

I see two scenarios:
1. Aonishiki beats Kotozakura then loses to the Yokozuna.
2. Aonishiki loses to Kotozakura and a Yokozuna wins the title outright.

I'm a diehard Aonishiki fan, but I believe he's going to have a Kisenosato-like career of close calls for a long while until he wins one.

#sumo

The sumo gods apologize to Aonishiki for the day 13 nonsense by having Onosato lose to Kotozakura(??) and then giving him a no-show Hoshoryu. He now controls his own destiny, but I think a Yokozuna takes the Emperor's Cup.

Day 15 November yusho odds:
Onosato 45%
Hoshoryu 40%
Aonoshiki 15%

#sumo

My outrage at the Aonishiki-Onosato result aside, the outcome itself was what I expected. Worse still, if Aonishiki loses out his Ozeki run is jeopardized. But it’s officially a 3-way race now.

Day 14 November yusho odds:
Onosato 50%
Hoshoryu 48%
Aonishiki 2%

#sumo

And btw, Kotozakura can low-key play spoiler these final few days. He's been surging with 5 straight wins and has beaten 4 of the 5 men with wins over our top contenders (Takanosho, Yoshinofuji, Hakuoho, Wakatakakage). #sumo

Tokihayate is quietly having an exceptional tournament. He hasn't fought the top dogs yet and I don't think he's going to, so he could finish 12-3 and be in a potential playoff. A special prize seems certain.

Day 13 November yusho odds:
Onosato 48%
Hoshoryu 44%
Aonishiki 7%
Tokihayate 1%

#sumo

Certainly: Yoshinofuji has already fought the two Yokozuna plus Aonishiki and gone 2-1 against them. Aonishiki still has to fight both Yokozuna and I expect him to go 1-1 at BEST, but 0-2 is very likely.
I see a clear path to Yoshinofuji finishing 12-3 and Aonishiki finishing 11-4.

We got ourselves a basho now!

Chaos reigns on Day 11! Onosato and Aonishiki both lost, turning this into a 3-way tie with Hoshoryu. Yoshinofuji is suddenly lurking and can force his way into the conversation if he wins out.

Day 12 November yusho odds
Onosato 43%
Hoshoryu 40%
Yoshinofuji 10%
Aonishiki 7%

#sumo

Onosato is invincible no more! He falls at the hands of Yoshinofuji in their first-ever meeting. With Aonishiki and Hoshoryu both on strong winning streaks, things just got very interesting.

Day 11 November yusho odds
Onosato 70%
Aonishiki 14%
Hoshoryu 14%
Yoshinofuji 2%

#sumo

Hoshoryu and Aonishiki have been so good lately that I feel comfortable saying that it's now a 3-horse race, but Onosato still looks invincible. I think the only way Onosato doesn't take the yusho is if both of them beat him.

Day 10 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 1%

#sumo

Just when it looked like the Maegashira were rising, they lose. Feels like a 2-horse race that’ll be decided by Day 14 or even Day 13 at the latest.

Day 9 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
The Field 1%

#sumo

Aonishiki continues his charge, Fujinokawa looks even better than he did on debut, and Yoshinofuji looks exactly like he was advertised before September. But an Onosato zensho is still likely.

Day 8 November yusho odds:
Onosato 86%
Aonishiki 6%
Fujinokawa 3%
Yoshinofuji 3%
The Field 2%

#sumo

H oshoryu falls on his face - kinda literally. Wouldn’t shock me if he finished 11-4 or 12-3 but Onosato makes him look so average with his dominance.

Day 7 November yusho odds:
Onosato 85%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%

#sumo

I haven't followed sumo long enough to see Hakuho at his peak or even during his decline. But watching Onosato, I can only assume that's what many of The GOAT's tournaments looked like.

Day 6 November yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 10%
Fujinokawa 5%
Aonishiki 3%
The Field 2%

#sumo

I feel like I'm saying this every day but Aonishiki just gets better and better. Hoping the reports that he's not up for Ozeki are misleading. Meanwhile, Fujinokawa looks incredible. Tournament dark horse.

Day 5 November yusho odds:
Onosato 78%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 8%
The Field 5%

#sumo

My apologies to Oho if I gave him the "kiss of death" yesterday. We now have four unbeatens: Onosato, Aonishiki, Fujinokawa and Asakoryu. Could the latter two be November's Kotoshoho?

Day 4 November yusho odds:
Onosato 77%
Hoshoryu 8%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%

#sumo

Strong couple of days for our san'yaku, with Oho really surprising me thus far. 8-2 from our top 5 guys is rock solid. Seems like Onosato will remain the favorite until someone gives him trouble.

Day 3 November yusho odds:
Onosato 75%
Hoshoryu 7%
Aonishiki 7%
Abi 6%
Oho 3%
The Field 2%

#sumo

The Kyushu basho is almost upon us. It's time to start the opening yusho odds.

Day 1 November yusho odds:
Onosato 70%
Hoshoryu 25%
The Field 5%

#sumo

Quick November basho predictions:
- Onosato goes 14-1. His zensho again thwarted by Hoshoryu on Day 15. Hoshoryu finishes 12-3.
- Aonishiki finishes close but just misses Ozeki promotion at 10-5
- 10+ wins from Abi, Kirishima, Kinbozan, Gonoyama and Fujinokawa

#sumo

I can only imagine how fun that must have been. Shame that it was so obviously scripted but a great showcase is a great showcase.

Day 15. For the first time in 5 years we're getting a Yokozuna vs. Yokozuna match.
Hoshoryu has had Onosato's number through the years but needs to beat him twice to claim his 3rd title.
Onosato just needs to win once.

September yusho odds:
Onosato 66%
Hoshoryu 34%

#sumo

Another note, Aonishiki reaches 10-3 for the basho, giving him his 13th straight tournament finishing 5 wins above .500 since his debut. To put that into perspective, Onosato only has 12 tournaments where he's been 5 over .500 despite having 15 total tournaments and only 2 below Juryo. #sumo

Yep. Either Wakatakakage loses his Sekiwake rank or Hoshoryu loses any control over the yusho outcome. Feels like a main event where the outcome won't make me happy regardless. #sumo