Dr Sari Arho Havrén

What does Beijing’s declared interest in Ukraine mean for UK-PRC relations? The Tangram | No 07.2025

What does Beijing’s declared interest in 🇺🇦 mean for 🇬🇧 - 🇨🇳 relations?

We asked four experts for their take in today’s #Tangram

✍️ Charles Parton OBE, @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, Leon Sinfield and Danielle Reader

#ObservingChina

What does Beijing’s declared interest in Ukraine mean for UK-PRC relations? The Tangram | No 07.2025

‘The explicit nature of Wang’s comment makes it even harder to manage the gap and continuing to bet on the PRC as the economic lifeline for the UK,’ states @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, @rusi.bsky.social

#Tangram

📌 The remaining democracy, human rights, or anti-corruption NGOs expect similar court orders this week.
📌 PM Kobakhidze has publicly said to jail everyone who does not recognise the legitimacy of his parliament (basically everyone in the NGO sector, most of the political and societal elite)

2/2

We should not forget about #Georgia and allow it to become another #Belarus‼️

My friend from Tbilisi just flagged how
📌 As of now, every remaining opposition party leader is in prison.
📌 Eight NGOs have received court orders that will soon lead to their closure.

1/2

"Ei täysin haluta nähdä" – Tämän virheen Eurooppa tekee Kiinan kanssa | Verkkouutiset "Ei täysin haluta nähdä" – Tämän virheen Eurooppa tekee Kiinan kanssa | Verkkouutiset

This is the mistake Europe is making with China: The relationship between Russia and China is often viewed from a one-sided perspective. 2/2

www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/ei-taysin-...

“Europe has a problem that it doesn't quite want to see how close the relationship between China and Russia is and how it also benefits China.”

My interview in the Finnish Verkkouutiset by @kaisapaastela.bsky.social
@rusi.bsky.social

1/2

Wang Yi to his 🇮🇩 colleague Sugiono in Beijing:

“With the US launching a global trade war..”

“We must..jointly defend international fairness and justice, send a signal of unity and openness to the outside world..”

🇨🇳 uses powerful speaking points (+tangible perks) to lure countries to its side.

Kenya’s President William Ruto, who begins a state visit in China today, has reaffirmed Kenya’s aspiration to join BRICS (as per People’s Daily); simultaneously Trump eyes gutting US diplomacy in Africa, with closing all non-essential embassies and consulates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Critical mineral dependence on China is now trending since 🇨🇳 weaponised the most vital rare earths using export controls to hit back in the trade war.

Politicians and companies dependent on these supplies have long been aware of this vulnerability.
🇨🇳’s actions could not have come as a surprise.

But, why would China address "overcapacity" because China denies it exists? A year ago, Xi Jinping himself said that there is no such thing as China's overcapacity problem. 3/3

According to the Commission read-out, VDL "emphasised China's critical role in addressing possible trade diversion caused by tariffs, especially in sectors already affected by global overcapacity." 2/3

Ursula von der Leyen spoke to Chinese Premier Li Qiang this week, wanting to “set up a mechanism for tracking possible trade diversion” after the US tariffs on China.
1/3

Interesting comments coming out (even from some in the critically leaning China watching community) as if somehow China is now better and more responsible global power only because these same voices are disappointed with the United States.

US officials object to European push to buy weapons locally U.S. officials have told European allies they want them to keep buying American-made arms, amid recent moves by the European Union to limit U.S. manufacturers' participation in weapons tenders, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Source 2/2

www.reuters.com/world/us-off...

Rearm but keep buying American: Washington is upset about the EU plans to buy European and exclude the US from the EU ReArm Europe fund.

Perhaps, in return, the US should clarify whether Article 5 applies to the US (or only to its allies) and whether annexing land from allies is appropriate. 1/

Trump's threat to free trade brings China, Japan, South Korea closer Beijing sees opportunity to drive wedge into Washington-led alliance

3/3 Trump's threat to free trade brings China, Japan, South Korea closer asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trad...

“Wang pressed for an early restart of free trade talks between Japan, China and South Korea. He also reiterated China's interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which includes Japan among its 12 members.” 2/

“As Japan, China and South Korea are tied together through bilateral trade, free trade is an issue they can rally around amid Trump's tariff war.”
1/

Exclusive | ‘We have to collaborate with China’: Norwegian diplomat on options in Trump era Norwegian foreign vice-minister Andreas Kravik talks about China’s key role as uncertainties rock Europe-US ties, and the need for balance.

4/4 www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

Climate cooperation or reining in Russia appear being the top two topics allowing facades to push for closer economic partnership. 3/

This time, it is Norwegian foreign vice-minister Andreas Kravik who, in the SCMP interview, highlighted “China’s strategic importance for both Oslo and Europe amid transatlantic uncertainties,” and calls for compartmentalising the relationship with China.
2/

It is incredible how, in Europe, some politicians still believe that China would - or could - rein in Russia.

1/4

Putin won't let Xi wait.

Apparently the art of the deal is to give me everything I want and then to impose no consequences when I still want more.

China is simply not an attractive investment destination anymore. 2/2

China courts global CEOs for meeting with Xi Jinping

Xi may court foreign heavyweights to invest in China all he wants, but “🇨🇳’s opening up” is still only empty words. The push for self-reliance (combined w barriers to market access, deflation, competition fr domestic rivals that are eating away margins) has killed confidence. 1/2

If VP Vance indeed downplays the relevance of countries that have not fought a war in 30 or 40 years, then the US should not worry about China.

It looks like China and Russia are winning. Accelerated by America.

The partnership for a new era.

While Zelenskyy meets Trump in Washington today, Xi Jinping met with Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, in Beijing on the same day.

Cont: “…it is not an act of expediency, not affected by any temporary incidents, and not subject to interference by external factors. Under the current situation, close communication between Russia and China is in keeping with the two countries’ comprehensive strategic partnership....” 4/4