Marta Bengoa

It's easy to miss with so much noise around us, but we've continued an incredible streak of broad based real wage growth for a more extended period than we have for a long time. And wage growth still a bit higher for non-managerial workers (~80% or private workforce). www.bls.gov/opub/ted/202...

Trade, tech and Treasuries: China holds cards in US tariff stand-off [FREE TO READ] Planning, diversified markets and control of strategic materials potentially give Beijing leverage — if it can bear the pain

Featured in today’s @FT on the US-China tariff stand-off: Despite deep trade interdependence, the balance of risk tilts toward the US. Trade independence creates asymmetric risks & leverage Beijing holds: on.ft.com/4jx44DY #tariff #TradeWar #InternationalTrade #Economics

Trade, tech and Treasuries: China holds cards in US tariff stand-off [FREE TO READ] Planning, diversified markets and control of strategic materials potentially give Beijing leverage — if it can bear the pain

Featured in today’s @FT on the US-China tariff stand-off: Despite deep trade interdependence, the balance of risk tilts toward the US. Trade independence creates asymmetric risks & leverage Beijing holds: on.ft.com/4jx44DY #tariff #TradeWar #InternationalTrade #Economics

Bond Market Backlash: The Overlooked Debt Costs of America’s New Trade Stance — ORF America By Marta Bengoa As the global trade conflict intensifies, we must consider not just the direct costs of tariffs but also their profound secondary effects on America's long-term fiscal sustainability.

1/7 NEW: The hidden cost of America's trade war? A massive Treasury selloff that just added $4.68 billion to taxpayer debt burden. My latest analysis on how tariffs are silently inflating our national debt:

orfamerica.org/orf-america-...

7/7 The real danger: A feedback loop where tariffs → higher yields → bigger deficits → more borrowing → even higher yields. Markets are warning us, but is anyone in Washington listening?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

6/7 This is mandatory spending—these higher interest costs automatically consume budget dollars for decades without any Congressional vote. Less money for infrastructure, healthcare, education.

5/7 Key irony: Countries like China and Japan are both targets of new tariffs AND major holders of US Treasuries. We're effectively antagonizing our largest creditors while asking them to keep financing our debt.

4/7 The math: 3-yr notes (+10.4 bps) = $181M more interest. 10-yr notes (+42.5 bps) = $1.66B more. 30-yr bonds (+43 bps) = $2.84B more. This is just from THREE DAYS of post-tariff market reaction.

3/7 Just this week's three Treasury auctions will cost taxpayers an extra $4.68B over the life of these securities due to higher yields. That's not a tariff on China—it's a stealth tax on future generations of Americans.

2/7 Markets deliver verdicts faster than economists. 10-yr Treasury yield surged from 4.01% to 4.51% in days after tariff announcements, while 30-yr bonds saw their biggest 3-day yield jump since 1982.

Bond Market Backlash: The Overlooked Debt Costs of America’s New Trade Stance — ORF America By Marta Bengoa As the global trade conflict intensifies, we must consider not just the direct costs of tariffs but also their profound secondary effects on America's long-term fiscal sustainability.

1/7 NEW: The hidden cost of America's trade war? A massive Treasury selloff that just added $4.68 billion to taxpayer debt burden. My latest analysis on how tariffs are silently inflating our national debt:

orfamerica.org/orf-america-...

Strategic Incoherence Compounds the Financial Costs of New U.S. Tariffs — ORF America By Marta Bengoa As this new phase of trade conflict unfolds, both immediate price effects and the longer-term restructuring of economic relationships threaten to undermine decades of productivity gai...

My take on today’s tariffs which represent strategic incoherence & dire economic consequences for the US & global economy in a highly unstable landscape #orfamerica

orfamerica.org/orf-america-...

Strategic Incoherence Compounds the Financial Costs of New U.S. Tariffs — ORF America By Marta Bengoa As this new phase of trade conflict unfolds, both immediate price effects and the longer-term restructuring of economic relationships threaten to undermine decades of productivity gai...

My take on today’s tariffs which represent strategic incoherence & dire economic consequences for the US & global economy in a highly unstable landscape #orfamerica

orfamerica.org/orf-america-...

5/ Africa's trajectory remains uncertain, its vast reserves of rare minerals could be crucial in a reorganized global supply chain. Full implications of Trump's trade offensive remain to be seen, one thing appears certain: consequences will reverberate far beyond targeted nations

4/ Regional disparities in impact appear inevitable. Latam faces a potential 1.1% GDP reduction as Chinese demand will inevitably shrink, Southeast Asia could experience a manufacturing renaissance, with optimistic forecasts suggesting up to 2% GDP growth over the next five years

3/ It’ll lead to job losses in manufacturing, even as policy aims to protect domestic industry, creating the opposite effect intended. Might trigger a 2.1% contraction in international trade volumes. Perhaps most concerning for developing nations is 3.2% FDI decline (expected)

2/The policy raises significant questions about the United States’ reliability as a trading partner and ally. The arbitrary nature of the tariffs introduces a new element of uncertainty into business planning, potentially dampening investment in U.S.-oriented production capacity

1/ Policy shift is a major one, not going to reduce the bilateral trade deficits either as those depend on macroeconomic fundamentals (excess of investment over savings in the U.S. economy). Exchange rate of the United States will appreciate contributing to widening the deficit

What Trump Tariffs Could Mean for the United States, India, and the Developing World — ORF America By Marta Bengoa While the full implications of Trump's latest trade offensive remain to be seen, one thing appears certain: the global trading system is entering uncharted waters, with consequences t...

My piece on Trump’s tariffs for ORF America. It explores the broad implications for the US and the developing world orfamerica.org/orf-america-...

NYFed paper: Trump's previous tariff announcements caused large declines in US stock market returns, and had a negative effect on the U.S. economy that is substantially larger than past estimates
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/12/usin...

Very happy to see this fully accepted and in press. A short thread coming. But first, thank you to all those who made this possible. To the JMCs out there this season: studies like this do not come from a vacuum, they stand on previous literatures and reflect invaluable comments from many people.

Me! Please add me. Thanks

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I'll be speaking at the 6th Workshop on the Economics and Politics of #Migration, May 22-23, 2025 here in Madrid. Leah Boustan will also be speaking. Submit your papers before Jan 26! tinyurl.com/y2cd98kk

🧵 New paper uses AI to map global production networks & study recent shifts in global trade: "AI-Generated Production Networks" by @trfetzer.com @econopete.bsky.social @prashantgarg.bsky.social and Bennet Feld.

Alejandro Graziano presented "International Trade, Market Concentration and Welfare". The paper highlights how changes in competition and concentration influence consumer welfare and trade outcomes.

In our new paper we introduce a novel global production network leveraging quite refined AI retrieval augmented generation techniques. We believe this data is particularly suitable to study the economic repercussions of escalating global trade tensions.

Hi #EconSky,

Not sure if the Starter Pack party's over, but I've made an Econ Starter Pack of Starter Packs! 😄
It's a work in progress, so I may have missed some. Let me know if there's anything to add—DMs are open!
Thanks for support @economista.bsky.social!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Many infectious diseases are so rare today that it is easy to forget how very common they were before the introduction of vaccines.

My chart presents an overview of the change in the US.

Please apply!