Bob Henson

Melissa’s slowdown is bad news for the central Caribbean » Yale Climate Connections With the tropical storm predicted to be a major hurricane by Monday, a prolonged life-threatening flood threat is expected for Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.

The long-awaited organization #Melissa appears to be starting, judging by the more symmetric look of the heavy thunderstorms around its center. The delay in Melissa's intensification has increased the threat to the central Caribbean, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain:

Tropical Storm Melissa not yet strengthening, but still expected to become a dangerous Caribbean hurricane » Yale Climate Connections The track forecast is more uncertain than usual, but Melissa is likely to bring colossal rains and life-threatening flooding to multiple islands in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm #Melissa has not yet strengthened. But this actually bad news, since a weaker storm is more likely to linger in the Caribbean and become a major hurricane, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

Tropical Storm Melissa on track to be a dangerous Caribbean hurricane » Yale Climate Connections It’s still uncertain which way Melissa will track, and how quickly, but the storm is likely to bring colossal rains and life-threatening flooding to multiple islands in the Caribbean.

Slow-moving Tropical Storm #Melissa is likely to become a dangerous Caribbean hurricane capable of drenching Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba with torrential rains that will trigger life-threatening floods. The latest from @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I:

Uncertainty is high, but with only two to three days to prepare we must consider the potential for a tropical cyclone hitting Hispaniola this week. Sixty percent of models this morning indicate this. See DeepMind AI (FNV3), American GFS, European AI (AIFS), and US Navy. 1/

Tropical disturbance poses torrential rainfall threat for the central Caribbean » Yale Climate Connections No matter whether Invest 98L becomes a tropical storm later this week, it could lead to serious flooding.

The main event for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, as far as life-threatening impacts go, could well be unfolding in the Caribbean this week, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

75 years ago today, Category 4 Hurricane #King made landfall directly on #Miami. No major (Cat3+) hurricane has gotten closer to Miami since then. The next closest was Andrew in 1992, and the center of that hurricane passed about 20 miles to the south and brought Category 2 winds to the city.
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Another great read from @scrawford.bsky.social, with necessary (but politically hard) solutions. “Unless governments at all levels do the extraordinarily difficult work of forcing physical changes that will keep people safer, only despair, foreclosures, and sinking markets are ahead.”

Native Alaskan communities reeling in wake of Typhoon Halong’s remnants    » Yale Climate Connections One town was almost completely inundated by its worst storm surge on record.

One life is lost, two are missing, and hundreds are in turmoil after the remnants of Typhoon #Halong got re-energized over unusually warm water. Its rare track pushed record storm surge into Native Alaskan communities along the remote SW coast. Here's my full look w/@drjeffmasters.bsky.social:

One dead, dozens rescued and roughly 1,000 displaced in western Alaska communities hit by ex-typhoon | Alaska Beacon Search and rescue efforts continued into Monday in the Kuskokwim River delta in the aftermath of ex-Typhoon Halong.

One dead, dozens rescued and roughly 1,000 displaced in western Alaska communities hit by ex-typhoon, reports Corinne Smith for @alaskabeacon.com

Tropical Storm Lorenzo forms in the central tropical Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections Lorenzo's formation brings the Atlantic hurricane season to near-average in 3 out of 4 categories.

For the 2nd time in the past 4 days, we have another Atlantic "fish" storm only of concern to marine interests forming in an unusual location for this time of year. My latest: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

It continues... as of 6am on Monday:
- a 4th consecutive day with record-high dewpoint (57°F so far)
- 106 consecutive hours and counting with a 50°F+ dewpoint

No hurricanes, but yikes:

—TS #Jerry drenching the N Leeward Islands
—Moisture from TS #Priscilla that could trigger flash floods in the SW US
—The northernmost named Atlantic storm on record (#Karen)
—Plus one heck of a mid-Atlantic coastal storm brewing

yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/kare...

Looks like Karen wins overall (not sure about advisories vs full HURDAT database). Per Michael Ferragamo:

“At 44.5°N, it is by far the northernmost forming system on record in the Atlantic Basin, surpassing the previous record of 42°N by UNNAMED 1952.”

Grace 2009: 41.2°N.

x.com/ferragamowx/...

Tropical Storm Jerry forms; a close pass by the Leeward Islands expected » Yale Climate Connections Jerry is predicted to be a Cat 1 hurricane when it makes its closest approach to the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night and Friday.

The northern Leeward Islands will need to watch out for newly-formed Tropical Storm Jerry. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

Central Atlantic disturbance 95L likely to develop » Yale Climate Connections The system is likely to be near the Leeward Islands on Thursday or Friday.

The next Atlantic threat figures to pass just northeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the latest: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cent...

Millions rely on dwindling Colorado River — but are kept ‘in the dark’ about fixes, critics say Negotiations aimed at solving the Colorado River's water shortage are at an impasse. Environmentalists are criticizing a lack of public information about the closed-door talks.

The flow of the Colorado River has shrunk about 20%, and its depleted reservoirs continue to decline. But talks aimed at addressing the shortage are at an impasse, and environmental groups say the lack of information about the closed-door negotiations is a problem. www.latimes.com/environment/...

Climate change behind 36% of damage inflicted by Typhoon Ragasa in China » Yale Climate Connections In the Atlantic, we're watching a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on October 3 that might develop in about a week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands.

A seemingly modest 7% increase in winds and 12% increase in rain due to global warming increased the damages from Typhoon #Ragasa by over 1/3, a new study has found. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/clim...

Bermuda braces for a pounding from strengthening Hurricane Imelda » Yale Climate Connections The hurricane is expected to pass over or very near Bermuda early Thursday morning as a Cat 2 storm.

Hurricane #Imelda has Bermuda in its cross hairs, but fortunately, the island is one of the most hurricane-hardened places on the planet. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/berm...

Several models are suggesting that Imelda and Humberto could merge over the North Atlantic, as shown in this HAFS forecast.

Announcement | Michael E. Mann After a little less than a year in the position, I’ve decided to step down as Vice Provost for Climate Science, Policy, and Action (“VPC”) at […]

I've stepped down as Vice Provost at @upenn.edu to focus on public scholarship & outreach, which I feel is so important at this moment. I remain Presidential Distinguished Professor of Earth & Environmental Science & Director of @penncssm.bsky.social
Statement here: michaelmann.net/announcement/

Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto Lock Arms and Swing Away from the U.S. Hurricane warnings issued for Bermuda as Imelda threatens a direct hit by late tomorrow into early Thursday

Imelda and Humberto are both hurricanes and less than 500 miles apart this morning. No two Atlantic hurricanes have been recorded so close together in the satellite era (since 1966). Imelda is Bermuda bound with a possible sting jet forming as it passes.

After drenching the Bahamas, Bermuda is the next land area that needs to be concerned with Imelda. The latest from @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/trop...

What happens when two tropical cyclones get "too" close to each other? It depends! There's often some rotational component of movement around a central point, but the strengths of each cyclone also make a huge difference. This week, #Imelda is set to be pulled into much stronger #Humberto's orbit.

“The [Department] has added “climate change,” “green” and “decarbonization” to its growing “list of words to avoid” at its Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, according to an email issued Friday…

“The words on the DOE list are at the heart of EERE’s mission.”

:-(

Forecasts Trend Away from the Carolinas for Soon-to-Be Imelda Heavy rains still forecast along the immediate Carolina coastal plain ahead of Imelda but landfall scenarios quickly fading

The big development since yesterday is forecast models falling in line with sharply turning future Imelda east and avoiding U.S. landfall. Still the U.S. isn't getting off scot-free. The latest details plus all the Category 5 Humberto stats and eye candy.

Man, this has been too true for too long. And beyond, "Okay, but get a heat pump" there's also "here's how to get a heat pump" and "here's a great installer."

It's been a decade since the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts have gone this far into the season (Sep 28) without a hurricane landfall. A welcome respite!

Humberto hits Category 4, while The Bahamas and Southeast U.S. prep for the next storm » Yale Climate Connections A tropical depression strengthening on Saturday could affect parts of the Southeast coast for several days.

Tropical Depression 9, now in The Bahamas, may dump 10-20" of rain somewhere close to the Southeast U.S. coast as a tropical storm or hurricane early next week. Onshore or offshore? That's one of many big questions in the air right now. Full update:

yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/humb...

As Humberto rages, another fast-evolving system bears a close watch » Yale Climate Connections Invest 94L will likely become a tropical storm over the Bahamas this weekend, and it might reach Georgia or the Carolinas as a hurricane by early next week. Though the uncertainty is high, it's a good...

Wild to see #94L and #Humberto juxtaposed like this: much more Pacific-ish than Atlantic-ish.

Big forecast headaches loom, possibly for days to come, with #94L sandwiched between #Humberto + a cutoff low in the SE US. Unusual setups are tough for models.

yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/whil...