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Tilman Fries

@tilmanfries.bsky.social

Economist | Assistant professor at LMU Munich | I work on beliefs, communication, etc. https://tilmanfries.github.io/

309 Followers  |  307 Following  |  4 Posts  |  Joined: 04.10.2023  |  1.5847

Latest posts by tilmanfries.bsky.social on Bluesky

I did the thing you are never supposed to do. I wrote a (rough draft of a) textbook: Theories of Rational Decision

It's technical, but from a philosophical perspective. It focuses on the normative theory but touches on some behavioral issues as well.

raw.githubusercontent.com/kzollman/Rat...

17.07.2025 12:52 β€” πŸ‘ 123    πŸ” 24    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 3

It's what's known as a DOS attack - denial-of-simplicity-and-strength attack. To inhibit capacity for abstraction, creativity and useful theory. @kjhealy.co
kieranhealy.org/files/papers...

14.02.2025 10:10 β€” πŸ‘ 21    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Taking Our Chances This one's for the academy, I guess

Here's a link to @economeager.bsky.social blog, which you obvs should also read: rottenandgood.substack.com/p/taking-our...

09.02.2025 20:17 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This should make us a bit humble when studying how people update in settings where "easy" closed-form solutions exist.

More than history, the book has deep philosophical debates about the the tools that researchers use everyday.

09.02.2025 20:17 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

One more curious lesson was that, in Bayes' original article on his theorem, he discusses how to infer P(heads) from tossing a coin n times. Today, we know that the unif. prior solution is (m+1)/(n+1), where m= # heads. But Bayes didn't. He couldn't solve the integral! Laplace did this later.

09.02.2025 20:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
the cover of "ten great ideas about chance", a book by persi diaconis and brian skyrms.

the cover of "ten great ideas about chance", a book by persi diaconis and brian skyrms.

Picked this up thanks to @economeager.bsky.social's blog. Highly ecommended if you're into decision theory or stats.

09.02.2025 20:17 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Narrative Persuasion - How one person may shape another's interpretation of objective information
YouTube video by WZBlive Narrative Persuasion - How one person may shape another's interpretation of objective information

🎬 INSIGHTS Video: Narrative Persuasion 🌍
How do narratives shape economic decision-making? πŸ’‘ In our interview, @kaibarron.bsky.social (@wzb.bsky.social b.bsky.social) discusses how narratives influence investors' interpretations of objective information. Watch here πŸ‘‰ www.youtube.com/watch?v=uowZ...

13.12.2024 12:34 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

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