Tilman Fries

I did the thing you are never supposed to do. I wrote a (rough draft of a) textbook: Theories of Rational Decision

It's technical, but from a philosophical perspective. It focuses on the normative theory but touches on some behavioral issues as well.

raw.githubusercontent.com/kzollman/Rat...

17.07.2025 12:52 — 👍 128    🔁 23    💬 9    📌 3

It's what's known as a DOS attack - denial-of-simplicity-and-strength attack. To inhibit capacity for abstraction, creativity and useful theory. @kjhealy.co
kieranhealy.org/files/papers...

14.02.2025 10:10 — 👍 21    🔁 6    💬 1    📌 0

Taking Our Chances This one's for the academy, I guess

Here's a link to @economeager.bsky.social blog, which you obvs should also read: rottenandgood.substack.com/p/taking-our...

09.02.2025 20:17 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

This should make us a bit humble when studying how people update in settings where "easy" closed-form solutions exist.

More than history, the book has deep philosophical debates about the the tools that researchers use everyday.

09.02.2025 20:17 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

One more curious lesson was that, in Bayes' original article on his theorem, he discusses how to infer P(heads) from tossing a coin n times. Today, we know that the unif. prior solution is (m+1)/(n+1), where m= # heads. But Bayes didn't. He couldn't solve the integral! Laplace did this later.

09.02.2025 20:17 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

the cover of "ten great ideas about chance", a book by persi diaconis and brian skyrms.

Picked this up thanks to @economeager.bsky.social's blog. Highly ecommended if you're into decision theory or stats.

09.02.2025 20:17 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

🎬 INSIGHTS Video: Narrative Persuasion 🌍
How do narratives shape economic decision-making? 💡 In our interview, @kaibarron.bsky.social (@wzb.bsky.social b.bsky.social) discusses how narratives influence investors' interpretations of objective information. Watch here 👉 www.youtube.com/watch?v=uowZ...

13.12.2024 12:34 — 👍 8    🔁 2    💬 1    📌 0