José Miguel Laplaza

How competition propels scientific risk-taking Kevin Gross∗ Department of Statistics North Carolina State University Raleigh, NC USA Carl T. Bergstrom† Department of Biology University of Washington Seattle, WA USA (Dated: September 9, 2025) In science as elsewhere, attention is a limited resource and scientists compete with one another to produce the most exciting, novel and impactful results. We develop a game-theoretic model to explore how such competition influences the degree of risk that scientists are willing to embrace in their research endeavors. We find that competition for scarce resources—for example, publications in elite journals, prestigious prizes, and faculty jobs—motivates scientific risk-taking and may be important in counterbalancing other incentives that favor cautious, incremental science. Even small amounts of competition induce substantial risk-taking. Moreover, we find that in an “opt-in” contest, increasing the stakes induces increased participation—which crowds the contest and further impels entrants to pursue higher-risk, higher-return investigations. The model also illuminates a source of tension in academic training and collaboration. Researchers at different career stages differ in their need to amass accomplishments that distinguish them from their peers, and therefore may not agree on what degree of risk to accept.

1. What does a Cold War-era game theory problem known as the silent duel have to do with high-risk research strategies, publication in Cell/Nature/Science glamor journals, and the academic job market?

Kevin Gross and I tackle these questions in our latest arXiv preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2509.06718

So let's be careful not to make too much fun of ChatGPT, as they are probably going to be taking our jobs or part of our jobs shortly, and we should be figuring out how society and we are going to adapt to this massive shock to white collar jobs. 5/5

The problem lies in drawing the diagram, not in the information ChatGPT provided in written form. ChatGPT still makes a significant number of mistakes, so everything needs to be reviewed, but it is already an incredible tool that can help in research and is going to get better. 4/5

Failed attempt to show the 20 top geneticist. Misspelled names and bad dates.

So I asked for the diagram, and that is when things started to go wrong. Misspellings and bad dates. And only show 16 out of the 20 of them. 3/4

Twenty Top Geneticists Since Mendel Hugo de Vries (1848–1935) — Gene rediscovery WIRED Wikipedia +3 Wikipedia +3 juliantrubin.com +3 Carl Correns (1864–1933) — Cytoplasmic inheritance juliantrubin.com +3 Wikipedia +3 Biology Discussion +3 Erich von Tschermak (1871–1962) — Mendel confirmation thecuestion.com +15 Wikipedia +15 juliantrubin.com +15 William Bateson (1861–1926) — Genetics champion News-Medical +15 juliantrubin.com +15 Biology Discussion +15 Thomas Hunt Morgan (1866–1945) — Chromosome heredity PMC +15 Wikipedia +15 Wikipedia +15 Alfred Sturtevant (1891–1970) — Genetic mapping Wikipedia +1 Barbara McClintock (1902–1992) — Jumping genes Biology Wise +3 Wikipedia +3 WIRED +3 George Beadle (1903–1989) — One gene‑enzyme Wikipedia +1 Oswald Avery (1877–1955) — DNA identity PMC +15 News-Medical +15 Wikipedia +15 Erwin Chargaff (1905–2002) — Base composition Biology Wise +15 News-Medical +15 PiedPiper +15 Rosalind Franklin (1920–1958) — DNA structure News-Medical James Watson (1928‑ ) — Double‑helix Wikipedia +4 Biology Wise +4 www.ddmcd.com +4 Francis Crick (1916–2004) — Double‑helix News-Medical Biology Wise Herbert Boyer (1936‑ ) — Recombinant DNA Biology Wise Paul Berg (1926–2023) — DNA recombination Biology Wise Werner Arber (1929‑ ) — Restriction enzymes Biology Wise Hamilton O. Smith (1931‑ ) — DNA cutting Biology Discussion +6 Biology Wise +6 www.ddmcd.com +6 Craig C. Mello (1960‑ ) — RNA interference Wikipedia +9 Wikipedia +9 PiedPiper +9 James V. Neel (1915–2000) — Genetic epidemiology Wikipedia Wen‑Hsiung Li (1942‑ ) — Molecular clock Wikipedia +1

And the list itself was not bad. 2/3

I have been using ChatGPT and this surprised me. So I decided to test if the problem is ChatGPT thinking capabilities is this bad or is the image capabilities bad. So I asked ChatGPT for the top 20 geneticist after Mendel with a two word summary of what they are know for. 1/2

This image shows a presentation schedule sign for the 2025 ‘Diligent (Baker’s) Dozen’ at the Entrepreneurs’ Conference, which took place on June 4-5, 2025, at the Monona Terrace in Madison, WI. The sign lists 13 presenting companies, each categorized by sector: Information Technology • BreezyFile • Service ID • Strudel AI Life Sciences • CellTrack • Phoenix-Aid • Sea Change Silicides • Synpha Biosciences Corp. Business Services • Equability • Induction Technologies • SwallowEase Diagnostics Advanced Manufacturing • FerroMX • Galasys • Saturn Agrisense

At the Wisconsin Entrepreneurs’ Conference. Listening to the Top 13 Governor’s Business Plan Contest Pitches.

I think Colossal did a disservice to the world by not telling George RR Martin he couldn't see the "dire wolves" until he finished "The Winds of Winter."

That is incredible.

Trump pretends to be powerful and wins, Democrats pretend to be weak and loose. We need new leaders.

Stand for Science March in front of the Capitol. Madison Wisconsin.

Stand for Science March. Madison Wisconsin.

Scientists as political advocates Science, both teaching and doing, is under attack. The recent US presidential election of a person and platform with anti-science bias exemplifies this. The study of climate processes and patterns and...

If you can, do something, speak up and act up. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Agree! I was there, too. I still use the Washington DC sweater I bought there because it was cold that day.

Eight years ago I went to Washington for the March for Science at the beginning of Trump I. He is right, and I cannot believe that we have to do it again.

Oh my god. Its real (Id seen chatter). OMB imposes a TOTAL halt on federal grants and loans, including disbursements on already awarded grants, and cancels all announcements of opportunity and such.

In the future, "ALL" grants and awards at agencies must be approved by "a political appointee"

So, we can hypothesize why the aliens died at the end of the "War of the Worlds." They were a mirror life. PS I am glad they didn't have bacteria contamination with them.

purl.stanford.edu/cv716pj4036

Judge blocks rule that eased U.S. reviews of biotech crops Some plant researchers fear the setback could last years and will stifle innovation

Judge blocks rule that eased U.S. reviews of biotech crops
Some plant researchers fear the setback could last years and will stifle innovation. (From Science) #PlantScience
www.science.org/content/arti...

Forward BIOLABS on LinkedIn: #startups #concept #commercialization #biohealth #woman #minority… Madison, WI, [12/10/2024] –- Forward BIOLABS, with support from the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC), is thrilled to announce the recipients…

Thank you to Forward Biolabs (Madison, WI) and the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation for awarding RojoBio a 2024 Forward Biolabs Membership. Biotech startups should explore Forward Biolabs for great lab space and community! Highly recommended.

www.linkedin.com/posts/forwar...

Rosa Parks Bus - Curating & Preserving - The Henry Ford The Rosa Parks Bus is an extraordinary historical artifact that has been restored by The Henry Ford. Learn more about how we are preserving this piece of history.

Amazing Lady. BTW, the bus is at the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, MI. Worth the visit.

www.thehenryford.org/explore/insi...

Great 2004 Wired Article about the Boliviana negra 2/2

www.wired.com/2004/11/colu...

Mexican Cartels Lure Chemistry Students to Make Fentanyl Criminals turn college campuses into recruitment hubs, recruiting chemistry students in Mexico with big paydays.

Cartels are interested in chemistry students! Is just a matter of time when they explore biotech to make drugs. Twenty years ago some people thought that they had use biotech to make a "round-up" resistant variety of coca. 1/2

www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/w...

World Beekeeping Awards axe honey prize due to fraud A report found that 46% of sampled honey products had likely been bulked out with cheaper sugar syrups.

I still don't understand how at least two biotech that are trying to make a "bee-free honey" are going to compete with the fake honey companies that are out there that are hard to identify.

www.bbc.com/news/article...

Look who's here
@pnas.org ✔️
@science.org ✔️
@naturecellbiology.bsky.social ✔️
@natrevgenet.bsky.social ✔️
@naturebiotech.bsky.social ✔️
@naturemicrobiol.bsky.social ✔️
@naturechemistry.bsky.social ✔️
@genesdev.bsky.social ✔️
@cellchembiol.bsky.social ✔️
@genomeresearch.bsky.social ✔️
@jcellbiol.bsky.social ✔️

Great idea! Add me please.