OTD in 2008, soon after I invaded Georgia, I was interviewed by Germany's biggest TV channel ARD in which I said I recognize all of Ukraine’s borders, including Crimea.

3 days later we claimed a “sphere of influence” that includes Ukraine.

#FIFACWC

@ernietedeschi.bsky.social Love the dinosaur on the background

a group of cartoon characters are standing in a line with their mouths open . ALT: a group of cartoon characters are standing in a line with their mouths open .

First half recap - PSG v Inter Miami #PSGMIA #FIFACWC

Probably relatively better showing than the game vs Palmeiras. Brazilians should outnumber US-based PSG fans.

Hey Patrick. Appreciate all your commentary. Just wanted to add that ‘prices paid’ is not part of the calculation of the headline number.

Who’s the Fed official who has penciled in the same GDP growth forecast at 2.4%-2.5% for 2025-2027? At potential, no changes vs December.

Guesses welcome :)

Preliminary estimates of the January PCE inflation figures, which will probably change after the January PPI release on Thursday morning, currently project core PCE at around 0.36% (it was 0.50% one year earlier).

That would raise the 6-month annualized rate but lower the 12-month to 2.7%

100%

Post PPI & CPI reports, we look for core PCE inflation to stay largely in check at 0.20% m/m in December.

More importantly, core PCE inflation is expected to have averaged 0.19% m/m over the July-December period -already at spitting distance from the 2% target.

Governor Waller is onto something.

Mi momento ha llegado 💫

Mostly due to seasonality imo. The nsa data is tracking very closely the 2019 path (similar calendar year to 2024). Don’t think we should be concerned.

Following today’s PPI numbers, core PCE inflation is likely to print 0.14% m/m in Nov - lowest m/m gain in 2024 @nicktimiraos.bsky.social

Also, not concerned about claims. Today’s jump mostly due to seasonality. Tracking the 2019 nsa data very closely.

Economists who produce detailed inflation forecasts expect the November CPI to show that core prices rose about the same as in October, up 0.27% to hold the 12-month rate at 3.3%

The median forecast has headline CPI rising to 2.7% from 2.6%.

If you’re slightly concerned by this week’s increase in jobless claims, wait for the market reaction next week when it rises to ~240k :)

Mostly seasonal noise.

High Fed funds rate is transitory

The Chastening!

Oh no. I had no idea he passed away! RIP.

Paul Blustein’s book on the 2001 crisis is also a very good read :)

Fed in 2021: No liftoff until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with maximum employment…

This consistent with the September dot plot. The two more hawkish Fed officials (likely Schmid himself and Bowman) see the terminal rate at just below 4%.

In line with CPI seasonality!

Julia, you should convince Laura of joining as well! Love your and her takes. Hope all’s good.

A tale of two platforms:

BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀

Following today’s CPI report we look for PCE prices to rise 0.22% m/m and 0.25% for the core in Oct. We will finalize our forecast after PPI data tomorrow.

Another 25bp rate reduction is still in the cards for December though Nov data (CPI/PCE, jobs) will have the last word.

#TDStrategy