Adam Kinzinger and Phillips OBrien Substack Live A recording from Adam Kinzinger and Phillips P. OBrien's live video

Just did a Substack live with Adam Kinzinger. We talked US politics, whether he is afraid of Trumpite retribution, air power, the war in Ukraine and the future of warfare. Enjoy.

open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...

The Russian spy ship stalking Europe’s subsea cables Covert operations in waters surrounding the British Isles pose a grave threat to critical infrastructure and a fresh challenge to Nato

“It’d be a lot easier to cut Ireland off,” he says. Without taking the risk of directly targeting Britain, a Nato member, he suggests Moscow would still have achieved a “significant economic and social hit on a close friend”
www.ft.com/content/0b35...

On the Ground in Ukraine: Winter 2025 - War on the Rocks

The latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee joins me to talk about our recent trip to Ukraine. We cover the situation at the front, latest findings and insights, what’s changed and how we should update our views. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

The names of those giving these orders will eventually be revealed. Some will be arrogant enough to think we will forget - that they can holiday in the Adriatic or shop in Paris. We should make sure that arrogance is misplaced.

Can anyone give me a good reason as to why Europe shouldn’t seize €300 billion of 🇷🇺 assets? It seems like the right move to me.

Praising and recommending a Putin regime paid propagandist? Paddy Cosgrave is really revealing himself here.

There’s a corrupt bargain in the offing. Chunks of E Europe for Taiwan S China Sea and Panama & more

Some will reluctantly accept it because it appears to avoid war. But it actually cements war itself at the heart of our international system. All the suffering & lessons of the 20th C forgotten

New RUSI Report: Drones Now Inflicting Two Thirds Of Russian Losses A report from UK thinktank RUSI acknowledges — slightly grudgingly — that tactical drones are the most lethal weapon in the Ukrainian arsenal and are transforming warfare

“A key finding is that tactical drones are inflicting roughly two-thirds of Russian losses…twice as effective as every other weapon in the Ukr arsenal put together…remarkable…for weapons which did not officially exist in the Ukr mil at start of the war” www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...

There’s a bad conspiracy theory going around that Bob Woodward claims in his book ‘War’ that the AFU allowed 30,000 Russian troops to quietly withdraw from Kherson due to US pressure on Kiyv. It’s false on all counts. 1/

A European Pillar of NATO?

The War in Ukraine in 2025 | CSIS Events Scholars from the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program are joined by Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss the war in Ukraine in the coming ...

For those interested, the latest with colleagues at CSIS. www.csis.org/events/war-u...

Five Years After the Outbreak, Chaos is the New COVID - Policy Magazine On December 1st, 2019, the first laboratory-confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 was diagnosed in Wuhan, China. By December 8th, 41 other people had been diagnosed.

This is a really important article.
The pandemic killed between 7 and 14 million.
The quick response in containing it and developing vaccines proved the strength of democratic institutions.
And yet the fall-out is paranoia, rage and anti-science strongmen.

www.policymagazine.ca/five-years-a...

Elon Musk: the ‘wild card’ in Trump’s dealings with China Do the billionaire’s longstanding ties to Beijing represent a diplomatic opportunity or a clash of political and business interests?

“Musk’s business empire sits across a minefield of possible conflicts on issues of national security, tech competition, supply chains & free speech, as well as the future of Taiwan. [Musk] has deep connections to top Chinese Communist party leaders” on.ft.com/4ilPbVw

Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy - War on the Rocks Editor’s Note: After the Russian military collapse in and around Kharkiv Oblast, there is now renewed concern that Russian leaders could behave

For folks interested in reading on the Russian approach to escalation, deterrence via intimidation versus through limited use of force, concepts of dosed or deterrent damage, etc. warontherocks.com/2022/09/esca...

IMO, Russia is intent on destabilising the west. The sooner western democracies wake up to the challenge the better. Deterrence is being slowly undermined & whittled away by 🇷🇺 aggression. A strong response is needed

This is worth a read 👇excellent

Russia’s Ruble Dips to New Lows, But Moscow is Managing The ruble plunged to new lows today, exceeding 80 to the U.S. dollar for the first time ever. The slump in oil prices – now at $28 per barrel compared with over $100 two years ago – has dragged Russia...

Good overview here of how the Rubles ongoing devaluation is risky, but not all bad for Moscow...(and how the key to effective economic targets is cutting off the foreign currency income derived from energy exports) www.gmfus.org/news/russias...

What price peace?

Why is the defence sector important for Europe? The over 1 million highly skilled jobs certainly has something to do with it, among other important factors. Good to see the new 2024 Facts & Figures report by ASD Europe.

www.asd-europe.org/news-media/f...

Russia uses Zircon missile against Ukraine for the second time - Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise | УНН УНН Slider ✎ KFI confirmed the second use of the Zircon hypersonic missile by Russia during the attacks on November 16-17. Experts have found that Ukraine's air de…

Russia uses Zircon missile against Ukraine for the second time - Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise

Experts have found that Ukraine's air defense is capable of shooting down this “invulnerable” missile.

unn.ua/en/news/russ...

Given the recent activities of a certain "research vessel" off the Irish coast, this seems relevant...

So interceptions reduce impact. One wonders why Russia is so bothered by the decision & it shows the gamesmanship that Putin played re escalation