Lawrence Freedman

Petit bourgeois

Staying alive vs taking control Labour's budget choices

Will Reeves try to regain control of the nation’s finances in her next budget or just do enough to stay within her self-imposed rules. Sam looks at her options. Not for the faint-hearted. samf.substack.com/p/staying-al...

Walked there so many times but never saw it like that!

Will there finally be peace in Gaza? One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

All you need to know about the Gaza peace plan, by @ldfreedman.bsky.social samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

Will there finally be peace in Gaza? One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Will there finally be peace in Gaza?"

A must read if you want to understand how we ended up with the proposed peace deal and what might happen next.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

Will there finally be peace in Gaza? One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

Latest post looks at the origins of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, why Israel’s failed strike against Hamas in Doha made the difference, how it is going and the problems ahead. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

Bravo.

Toward the end of our Yom Kippur service last night our Rabbi reported with gratitude a message of concern and support he had received from the Imam of the local mosque.

More Succession.

For the record I haven’t been consulted on any of this. Note no mention as yet of insisting on high ethical standards and maintaining the integrity of the site. Just Haribo.

My son recently found a swastika drawn on the pavement at... The Manchester attack didn't come as a shock. The only surprise is it hasn’t happened sooner

I wrote a short piece for the Observer on the attacks in Manchester.

observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

This is up there with the best of Sam’s blog.

Powerfully explanatory in terms of how Labour relates to white working class voters. And then, a practical guide on how to solve the apparent contradictions of the party, by focussing on areas of policy where non-zero sum gains can be made.

Tempting.

Hegseth’s Unusual, Partisan, and Dangerous Convening of Military Leaders If the defense secretary’s event allayed concerns of DEI in the military for some, it aggravated concerns of a politicized military for all.

@kschake.bsky.social reflects on yesterday's address by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Trump at a gathering of the country's top military officials. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/hegs...

The story behind the polls Who's changed their mind since the 2024 election and why?

New post just out:

"The story behind the polls"

Today we have guest post from the brilliant @dylandifford.bsky.social breaking down which voters have moved where since the election and why.

With loads of new data analysis and lovely charts.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The Most Bizarre Test of U.S. National Security Is Happening This Week Or, how the Trump administration does not understand centralized vulnerability.

I wrote about the weird all generals meeting, why it seems super-dumb, and why it’s causing me to recall the dumbest movie plots ever. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-most-b...

Has Russia lost Moldova? Why the bitterly contested election in a "faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing", matters a lot

Looks like Putin's attempt to bully Moldova has failed. With 90% of votes counted, the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has a 20 point lead over the Russian-funded Patriotic Bloc open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...

It would have been there to dismiss it and by the final draft it had been omitted. So not a story.

Last Rites What happens if the Conservatives completely disintegrate?

Lots on the substack this week:

Me on the increasing plausibility of a total Tory collapse, how it would happen and what it would mean for the political landscape:

samf.substack.com/p/last-rites...

Russian provocations How should NATO and the EU react?

New post looks at what Russia is trying to achieve with its airspace provocations; the NATO and EU response; Trump’s apparent change of heart; and the latest ideas on helping Ukraine manage the financial burden of the war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...

Russian provocations How should NATO and the EU react?

Strategy Grand Old Man, Lawrence freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social weighs in on the latest Russian provocations. Do read:

samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...

“As Long As It Takes”: What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security?

We are thrilled to welcome Sir @ldfreedman.bsky.social to @qmul.bsky.social to deliver the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social’s fourth distinguished “Hennessy Lecture” on 8 October.

You can book your free ticket below!

Russian provocations How should NATO and the EU react?

New post looks at what Russia is trying to achieve with its airspace provocations; the NATO and EU response; Trump’s apparent change of heart; and the latest ideas on helping Ukraine manage the financial burden of the war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...

Last Rites What happens if the Conservatives completely disintegrate?

Its possible that the Tories will completely collapse. What happens then? @samfr.bsky.social explores the implications for the other parties. Does Reform take them over? Should Lib Dems move more to centre right to occupy abandoned ground? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/last-rites

One Hell of a Fight - A Change In Trump’s Narrative on Ukraine Trump’s recent post about the war in Ukraine was a major shift in his strategic narrative about the war. What did he actually say and what might it mean for the trajectory of the war?

Trump’s recent post about #Ukraine was a major shift in his strategic narrative about the war. There are some good words, but words without action are pointless. My assessment, exploring potential impacts on the trajectory of the war, is available now. mickryan.substack.com/p/one-hell-o...

One Last Push? The Battle for Pokrovsk continues

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk in which both sides have invested heavily. The stakes are high - Russia needs to show something for this year’s constant and costly offensives. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/one-last-p...

One Last Push? The Battle for Pokrovsk continues

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk in which both sides have invested heavily. The stakes are high - Russia needs to show something for this year’s constant and costly offensives. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/one-last-p...

Three seconds TikTok and the future of politics

My grandchildren feature (in a good way) in this latest post by @samfr.bsky.social on TikTok’s combination of distraction and political influence. I was totally ignorant of all of this and now have something else to be worried about. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/three-seco...

From Roger Moorhouse, Wolfpack. Fascinating book.

Just finished book on U-boats that put casualties at 75%