Lawrence Freedman

Is Ukraine's position improving? What's Russia's breaking point? Is House of Dynamite accurate? Answering your questions (part one)

Thanks to readers for so many questions - more than can be answered in one post. Topics covered include implications of Ukraine being able to counterattack now, why Putin keeps on going, threats to UK, China, arms control, and House of Dynamite (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

No, I still can’t get this out of my head, and I keep trying to grasp the full abyss of this idiocy, unsuccessfully.

Russia spent years, decades "fighting all of NATO," turning America into "radioactive ash" every night on state TV.

I doubt any troops cheered Custer.

After Starmer What would Labour do differently under a new leader?

Assuming Starmer days as PM are numbered, Sam considers how he might be replaced and by whom, and what if any difference this will make to the way we are governed. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/after-star...

Rushing to Failure with Current Peace Talks? The Big Five, 8 February edition There many reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are a variety of major risks involved in a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any be...

There reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are major risks with a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any benefits of such a deal. As the saying goes, "if you want it bad, you get it bad."
mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...

They could all possibly be true or equally apocryphal!

Distinguished man to Sir Thomas Beecham. ‘I believed you conducted before my brother recently.’
Beecham, who has no idea: ‘ah yes and how is your brother?’
Distinguished man: ‘oh, still King.’

Once had privilege of listening to Ian McKellen perform at Oxford. Seemed timely then - even more so now.

They only asked me for $75. I feel cheap.

The most dangerous man in America Understanding Stephen Miller: “Trump’s Prime Minister”

New post out:

"The most dangerous man in America"

Understanding "Trump's Prime Minister" Stephen Miller - the nexus of all the streams of right-wing thought and behaviour that embody the current regime.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

If you have not yet subscribed, @ldfreedman.bsky.social Substack is a must. Insightful interview with Richard Moore, until September 2025 head of MI6.

He is spot on regarding China. I noticed it over the years from Chinese students in Europe that Europe is seen as a museum populated by weaklings.

"Putin is not getting an accurate picture" This is the second part of our interview with Richard Moore, who from 2020 until last September was Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) also known as “C”.

And in the second part Richard discusses the challenges of working out what is going on in the Kremlin (and what Putin knows), as well as China and Iran (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/putin-is-n...

How MI6 works From 2020 until last September, Richard Moore was Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) also known as “C”.

Our two part interview with Richard Moore, former head of MI6, produced a lot of fascinating and candid observations. The first part looked at how MI6 works and fits in with rest of government (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/how-mi6-wo...

"Putin is not getting an accurate picture" This is the second part of our interview with Richard Moore, who from 2020 until last September was Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) also known as “C”.

New post out:

"Putin is not getting an accurate picture"

Part two of our fascinating interview with former MI6 Chief, Richard Moore.

This time looking at working with the US under Trump, and what he makes of Putin, Xi and the situation in Iran.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...

Good interview with Richard Moore, in which he discusses the less well known work of "reports officers", as opposed to case officers. "Their job is to handle the material coming in from the field. They do all of that due diligence" samf.substack.com/p/how-mi6-wo...

There was a time when academics just expected to be trusted. Days long gone.

I had a backlog …

Good luck at staying retired then.

Retirement - for me - just meant off the payroll.

How MI6 works From 2020 until last September, Richard Moore was Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) also known as “C”.

New post out:

"How MI6 works"

We interviewed Richard Moore the man who was "C" - Chief of MI6 - until September.

In part one we talked about MI6 operates - how does C work with the Prime Minister? Does he think there's a "deep state" etc...

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

Groundhog Day? The state of the current negotiations over Ukraine

What is going on in the trilateral negotiations with US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi? Why do the Russians talk about a mythical deal supposedly agreed at the Alaska summit? Can Ukraine rely on US security guarantees? All in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/g...?

With the aid of chocolate I have brought myself to read the just-released National Defense Strategy. A few quick reactions: 1/7
media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...

This is excellent. 100% required reading for anyone interested in public sector, Whitehall and/or civil service reform.

Who runs Britain? The paradox of executive power

Why is it that UK government has more executive power with fewer constraints than other democratic countries yet continually complain that they can’t get anything done. @samfr.bsky.social explores the paradox and suggests remedies. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/who-runs-b...

Great to have @verityharding.bsky.social on substack - one of the most insightful writers about AI.

Nothing is ever resolved with Trump. But this was never going to end with Greenland going to US.

Kash Patel’s FBI Is Making America Less Safe, Current and Former Employees Say Forty-five current and former employees on the changes they say are undermining the agency and making America less safe.

the most extraordinary piece of reporting: a year inside the FBI (and yes there are implications here for British security- the Five Eyes bit is bonkers) www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Look forward to it

Indeed, although how Trump assesses interests is also part of the problem. I would have thought if we want to aspire to be more virtuous best to have an accurate narrative so we know where we failed in the past.

It was bad history and outside of the West it appeared as hypocritical and self-serving. Not that some rules wouldn’t be nice!