Lawrence Freedman

Again looks to have called it right (contrary to most media narratives), & incidentally revealing about how dysfunctional the US Government is.

U.S., Ukraine agree to change draft of peace plan that appeased Russia Negotiators had been working off an early proposal that bipartisan lawmakers say would further destabilize global security and reward Russia after its 2022 invasion.

Hard to know what’s going on with respect to these discussions but the sentence that rings most true in this piece is “It’s embarrassing.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

Do read this piece from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on the questions that Ukraine could ask, in response to the latest peace plan.

Oh, and sign up to the substack from @samfr.bsky.social.

How should Ukraine respond? And more details on the "peace plan"

Another post on the new peace plan assessing how Ukraine should respond - don’t rush, don’t agree to a package and then wait for more Russians demands, keep up pressure, ask questions, cherry pick. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?

How should Ukraine respond? And more details on the "peace plan"

Another post on the new peace plan assessing how Ukraine should respond - don’t rush, don’t agree to a package and then wait for more Russians demands, keep up pressure, ask questions, cherry pick. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?

X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.

Here’s an “influencer from Texas”

“He Must Have Got This From K.” How a Russian operative used the American media to force a risible “peace deal” into existence

Here is my read of the "peace plan" and how Kirill Dmitriev played the American media to force this thing into being -- with an incompetent White House scrambling to make it seem like this was somehow coordinated and well-planned. open.substack.com/pub/macspaun...

My irritation, all in one place!

Interesting. ‘It is expected’ caught my eye as such an odd term to use

Update and very useful commentary on the so called Peace Plan from Lawrence Freedman

The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.

The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

Has no Putin stamp. I’m doing update

Yet another peace plan? What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal

@ldfreedman.bsky.social demolishes the rumors of a peace plan.

This makes more sense than anything else I've seen on the plan.

Nonetheless, Witkoff's ignorance shines through. He probably got rolled again. 1/

Yet another peace plan? What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal

Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?

Great piece

Retreat, Defeat and the Sunk Cost Fallacy Ukraine’s choices on Pokrovsk

Here is another post from yesterday on the more serious matter of the battle for Pokrovsk and the question of whether Ukrainian forces should withdraw. samf.substack.com/p/retreat-de...

Yet another peace plan? What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal

Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?

One thought-provoking observation among many: "...there is a bias in these debates in which hard questions are asked of Kyiv but not Moscow. Why exactly are Russians dying in large numbers to take over a ruined city? Will it really bring the war closer to a conclusion if this operation succeeds?"

I’d be very surprised if this leads to anything at all. Latest effort by Witkoff to bounce administration to bounce Ukraine into a deal they won’t accept.

Retreat, Defeat and the Sunk Cost Fallacy Ukraine’s choices on Pokrovsk

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk and the pressure on Kyiv to order a withdrawal. I look at the factors influencing a decision, including the temptation to deny Putin a victory he has already claimed (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...?

The Reality Trap Reform's struggles in local government

New post just out:

"The Reality Trap"

On Reform's struggles running councils.

What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The Reality Trap Reform's struggles in local government

Continuing his exploration into what Reform might be do as a national government, Sam looks into the difficulties already faced in local government. He also points out the challenge any party faces when options are so constrained. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/the-realit...

Don’t think the conditions make it possible to mass forces and give them sufficient mobility for a real breakthrough - there is always the risk of an army that has been ground down just collapsing- more likely than a set-piece battle.

Will Russians continue to support the war? Will 2026 be a crunch year? Possibility of Ukrainian counter-attack? More answers to your questions.

Prospects for ending war in Ukraine, future of Russia, role of China, use of small-yield nuclear weapons, future of defence industry - answering questions put by subscribers (£/free trial). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

New post just out:

Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?

Answering lots of your questions.

Here's what I cover

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

Great summary from Sam of just how dire a state the criminal justice system is in — and the massive political and human risks that creates. We go through all the facts and figures in our Public Services Performance Tracker:

Flashing Red Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"

Sam illuminates the dire state of the criminal justice system and why it has to be a priority for reform. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/flashing-red?

Flashing Red Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"

New post just out:

Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".

No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.

It desperately needs a new approach.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...

As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)

Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.

Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake

Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.