Michael Kofman

Recently met this great UA customs inspector

Zelenskyy MPs balk at restoring anti-corruption bodies over “revenge” fears MPs fearing prosecution refuse to vote on bill that restores independence of anti-corruption agencies

Uh oh.

Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com

How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back War on the Rocks · Episode

Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...

I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck – War on the Rocks

Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...

Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say | CNN Politics The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an e...

Important. "The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US [DIA] intelligence assessment" edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/p...

Shifting Views and Misdirection: How Trump Decided to Strike Iran

NYT on the decision to strike Iran. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...

A Battlefield Update from Mike Kofman | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts Max and Maria get another update from military expert Mike Kofman on the state of the frontlines in Ukraine.

.@maxbergmann.bsky.social and I had a great conversation with the always insightful @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war in Ukraine. Mike shared his assessment of the frontline situation, how things are going for each side, & what he’s watching closely in the months ahead.

Air Power in Practice: Lessons from Israel and Russia, Part 1 – War on the Rocks

Latest RC is out. I join @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and Guy Plopsky to talk about the Israeli vs Russian air campaign. Why one succeed and the other failed. How can these different wars be usefully compared? What are observations or lessons learned. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

The damage to 6 other bombers is unclear. Max impact could therefore be 40%-50% of operationally ready aircraft if all 20 were affected. However it looked like some Tu-22M3 hit were not operable.

Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.

Thanks

An Estonian Perspective on the Current and Future Russian Threat – War on the Rocks

For folks who missed it. I sat down with the head of Estonian Military Intelligence for a conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, how he sees the future Russia threat, and the security dynamic in the Baltic. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks

Another Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and @massdara.bsky.social join me for a good discussion on the SBU operation, what we know, implications, and exchange views on the current course of the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

With interviews featuring Leon Panetta, Frank Kendall, Michael A. Brown, @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Paul Scharre, @mchorowitz.bsky.social @aaronbateman.bsky.social, @michaelkofman.bsky.social, Kate Epstein, Thomas G. Mahnken, Benjamin Jensen, Jack Shanahan, James Roche and many more

Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks

Rob Lee, @michaelkofman.bsky.social and I share our views on drone strikes on Russian bombers, and views on the frontlines in Ukraine below @warontherocks.bsky.social

warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.

Assessing the Russian Economy in 2025, Part 2 - War on the Rocks

The second part of our Russia contingency episode with Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko is out. We continue the discussion on Russia’s economic outlook, debates about how Moscow is financing the war, defense spending, and more. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Massive security breach: Russian nuclear facilities exposed online Danwatch and Der Spiegel has gained access to hundreds of highly detailed blueprints showing how Russia is carrying out an enormous modernization of some of the

Interesting investigative piece. danwatch.dk/en/serious-s...

Assessing the Russian Economy in 2025, Part 1 - War on the Rocks

Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko to talk about the state of the Russian economy. We look at oil prices, sanctions, and discuss different scenarios for the coming months. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Live at #LennartMeriConference @icds-tallinn.bsky.social another high level panel with 🇪🇪 PM @kristenmichalpm.bsky.social , @michaelkofman.bsky.social , @georginaewright.bsky.social & Torrey Taussig. On Ukraine aid and boots on the ground. Reality check badly needed though.

Will Russia's War on Ukraine Keep Resisting Trump's Diplomacy? - War on the Rocks Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to unpack how the Trump administration's ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality. They dive into how

I was joined by @massdara.bsky.social @michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack how the Trump administration’s ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality
warontherocks.com/2025/05/will...

Mass, Maneuver, and Modern Warfare: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Fight, Part 2 - War on the Rocks

Part 2 of my discussion with @shashj.bsky.social is out. Come for mass precision and maneuver warfare, stay for observations from the war relevant to European force planning and defense contingencies. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika"
podcast, I'm joined by my colleague
@michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

AND THE WAR GRINDS ON The war continues, even if less people are paying attention.

On this week’s Power Vertical Podcast I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war & where it may be heading www.powervertical.org/2025/04/18/a...

Mass, Maneuver, and Modern Warfare: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Fight, Part 1 - War on the Rocks

Latest Russia Contingency is out. @shashj.bsky.social joins me and we switch roles. This time he asks the questions as we dive into observations and lessons from the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Interesting piece. www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Enjoyed this. I asked @michaelkofman.bsky.social a lot of questions about the future of war. We spoke about whether technology is making the battlefield transparent, the offence-defence balance, European v Asian theatres, what European armies should focus on and his favourite books on war ($, WOTR)

US ambassador to Ukraine to leave her post Bridget Brink is stepping down after policy disagreements with the Trump administration

Bridget Brink, the US ambassador to Ukraine, is stepping down following increasing policy disagreements with President Donald Trump’s administration, according to people familiar with her decision.
www.ft.com/content/aecd...

Why Ukraine Still Isn’t About to Lose American support may be tenuous, but military analyst Michael Kofman says that’s only part of the story.

Good conversation with @benjaminhart.bsky.social nymag.com/intelligence...

Why Ukraine Still Isn’t About to Lose American support may be tenuous, but military analyst Michael Kofman says that’s only part of the story.

I had another excellent conversation with @michaelkofman.bsky.social about where the war in Ukraine stands now. nymag.com/intelligence...