Michael Kofman

Analysts skeptical about chance for Ukraine-Russia peace deal - The World from PRX The White House says it’s making “tremendous progress” on a peace plan for Ukraine. And there might be a deal as soon as Thanksgiving Day. US and Ukrainian officials have been modifying a 28-point pea...

Still plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Trump administration's latest push for an end to the war in Ukraine. Thanks @ivodaalder.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social for speaking with me -- theworld.org/segments/202...

Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Fall 2025 - War on the Rocks Michael Kofman and Rob Lee return with fresh insights from their latest field study in Ukraine. Their conversation covers how Russia is adapting to Ukrainian...

Latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee and I talk about our recent impressions from a field study in Ukraine. We discuss what’s changed since July, key trends, and look at different parts of the front. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

THE POKROVSK ENDGAME – AND AFTERMATH powervertical · THE BATTLE OF POKROVSK Russia continues to focus its firepower on the strategic and battered eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said th…

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak to the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the battle for Pokrovsk and what it means for the broader trajectory of Russia's war against Ukraine. www.powervertical.org/2025/11/07/t...

Pokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last fall. Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defense in the medium to long term. 13/

Perhaps remarkably the city has been held for over a year, forcing Russian forces to expend manpower fighting for it, and try go around it. Though over time it turned from a useful defensive anchor to another salient, which has proven increasingly difficult to maintain. /12

Russia’s advance this year has been lackluster, especially along the axes they prioritized. The costs have been high as well relative to the amount of terrain gained. But Pokrovsk can be an unfortunate postscript to that story, especially if it results in unnecessary losses. 11/

The city holds operational value. Its loss widens the Russian axis of advance in Donetsk west of the Kramatorsk conglomeration of towns, but it does not open those cities to be quickly taken. Hence the impact of losing Pokrovsk should not be overstated. 10/

The challenge is that drones now effect fire control in 15-20km depths such that it is not possible to withdraw equipment, and much harder to extract people from the pocket (especially from any forward positions). It is no longer possible to wait to the last minute. 9/

The conditions are arguably better than the circumstances around Avdiivka in 2024. Russian forces lack momentum and the way they have been fighting won’t generate it. Infiltration yields a creeping offensive but can’t result in operationally significant breakthroughs. 8/

If Pokrovsk falls so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes. The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units further back. Ukraine has defensive lines to withdraw to, and can reset its defense. 7/

Ukraine has brought in reinforcements and elite units to stabilize the flanks. They are counterattacking, but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage. 6/

As Russian forces accumulated in Pokrovsk they increasingly began to bring in drone teams, and operate drones from the city itself, widening the contested area around the city and interdicting logistics. 5/

Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Response Corps, which took over the situation in July, has had the unenviable task of stabilizing the situation given deteriorating conditions, lack of reserves, and manning levels of deployed units. The geometry of the battle has long been unfavorable. 4/

Earlier in the summer AFU units were working to stem the infiltration. The Russian advance at Dobropillia to some extent forced a shift of attention & resources. A lack of operational reserves has long resulted in a ‘firefighting’ approach to counter advances across the line. 3/

The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city. Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather, especially fog, enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks. 2/

As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)

Ukrainian Drone Unit Commander Shares Lessons from the Front - War on the Rocks

Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds.
@WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Holding Ground: Ukraine, Russia, and the Politics of Persistence Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to discuss the state of the front, how Ukraine and Russia are staying in the fight, the possible provision of

Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @massdara.bsky.social and @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the current course of the war, recent developments, and policy trajectory here in DC. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/10/hold...

The 2022 Nuclear Crisis: A Retrospective - War on the Rocks

Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Austin Long and Pranay Vaddi to talk about the fall 2022 nuclear crisis. Was it a crisis? What do we think happened? Three years on, do we know now that can shed more light on this period? warontherocks.com/episode/ther... @warontherocks.bsky.social

Pour le plaisir, un autre extrait de l’émission avec @michaelkofman.bsky.social, où l’on parle du grand coup de génie des Russes qu’est l’emploi de motocross, et de ce que ça nous apprend.

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug

Very much looking forward to welcoming @michaelkofman.bsky.social at @irsem.bsky.social, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and Maud Quessard!

October 6

www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...

Security guarantees looked one way in Alaska, and another in Washington. @massdara.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social join Ryan to break down which version Ukraine might get.

Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...

Half-Baked Alaska Moving from ceasefire to full settlement

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Half-Baked Alaska"

On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result.

(£/free to read)

samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...

Willpower, Not Manpower, is Europe’s Main Limitation for a Force in Ukraine - War on the Rocks Following a dramatic meeting in the White House, U.S. military support for Ukraine is perilously uncertain. Sustaining Ukraine in this war, and

Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...

THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER powervertical · THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER Russia’s summer offensive is in full swing with Moscow capitalizing on a series of small advances in an attempt to reshape control of the front l…

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the front lines in Ukraine.

www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...

Recently met this great UA customs inspector

Zelenskyy MPs balk at restoring anti-corruption bodies over “revenge” fears MPs fearing prosecution refuse to vote on bill that restores independence of anti-corruption agencies

Uh oh.

Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com

How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back War on the Rocks · Episode

Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...

I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck – War on the Rocks

Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...