Michael Kofman

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug

Very much looking forward to welcoming @michaelkofman.bsky.social at @irsem.bsky.social, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and Maud Quessard!

October 6

www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...

Security guarantees looked one way in Alaska, and another in Washington. @massdara.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social join Ryan to break down which version Ukraine might get.

Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...

Half-Baked Alaska Moving from ceasefire to full settlement

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Half-Baked Alaska"

On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result.

(£/free to read)

samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...

Willpower, Not Manpower, is Europe’s Main Limitation for a Force in Ukraine - War on the Rocks Following a dramatic meeting in the White House, U.S. military support for Ukraine is perilously uncertain. Sustaining Ukraine in this war, and

Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...

THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER powervertical · THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER Russia’s summer offensive is in full swing with Moscow capitalizing on a series of small advances in an attempt to reshape control of the front l…

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the front lines in Ukraine.

www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...

Recently met this great UA customs inspector

Zelenskyy MPs balk at restoring anti-corruption bodies over “revenge” fears MPs fearing prosecution refuse to vote on bill that restores independence of anti-corruption agencies

Uh oh.

Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com

How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back War on the Rocks · Episode

Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...

I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck – War on the Rocks

Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...

Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say | CNN Politics The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an e...

Important. "The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US [DIA] intelligence assessment" edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/p...

Shifting Views and Misdirection: How Trump Decided to Strike Iran

NYT on the decision to strike Iran. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...

A Battlefield Update from Mike Kofman | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts Max and Maria get another update from military expert Mike Kofman on the state of the frontlines in Ukraine.

.@maxbergmann.bsky.social and I had a great conversation with the always insightful @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war in Ukraine. Mike shared his assessment of the frontline situation, how things are going for each side, & what he’s watching closely in the months ahead.

Air Power in Practice: Lessons from Israel and Russia, Part 1 – War on the Rocks

Latest RC is out. I join @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and Guy Plopsky to talk about the Israeli vs Russian air campaign. Why one succeed and the other failed. How can these different wars be usefully compared? What are observations or lessons learned. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

The damage to 6 other bombers is unclear. Max impact could therefore be 40%-50% of operationally ready aircraft if all 20 were affected. However it looked like some Tu-22M3 hit were not operable.

Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.

Thanks

An Estonian Perspective on the Current and Future Russian Threat – War on the Rocks

For folks who missed it. I sat down with the head of Estonian Military Intelligence for a conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, how he sees the future Russia threat, and the security dynamic in the Baltic. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks

Another Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and @massdara.bsky.social join me for a good discussion on the SBU operation, what we know, implications, and exchange views on the current course of the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

With interviews featuring Leon Panetta, Frank Kendall, Michael A. Brown, @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Paul Scharre, @mchorowitz.bsky.social @aaronbateman.bsky.social, @michaelkofman.bsky.social, Kate Epstein, Thomas G. Mahnken, Benjamin Jensen, Jack Shanahan, James Roche and many more

Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks

Rob Lee, @michaelkofman.bsky.social and I share our views on drone strikes on Russian bombers, and views on the frontlines in Ukraine below @warontherocks.bsky.social

warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.

Assessing the Russian Economy in 2025, Part 2 - War on the Rocks

The second part of our Russia contingency episode with Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko is out. We continue the discussion on Russia’s economic outlook, debates about how Moscow is financing the war, defense spending, and more. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Massive security breach: Russian nuclear facilities exposed online Danwatch and Der Spiegel has gained access to hundreds of highly detailed blueprints showing how Russia is carrying out an enormous modernization of some of the

Interesting investigative piece. danwatch.dk/en/serious-s...

Assessing the Russian Economy in 2025, Part 1 - War on the Rocks

Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko to talk about the state of the Russian economy. We look at oil prices, sanctions, and discuss different scenarios for the coming months. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Live at #LennartMeriConference @icds-tallinn.bsky.social another high level panel with 🇪🇪 PM @kristenmichalpm.bsky.social , @michaelkofman.bsky.social , @georginaewright.bsky.social & Torrey Taussig. On Ukraine aid and boots on the ground. Reality check badly needed though.

Will Russia's War on Ukraine Keep Resisting Trump's Diplomacy? - War on the Rocks Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to unpack how the Trump administration's ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality. They dive into how

I was joined by @massdara.bsky.social @michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack how the Trump administration’s ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality
warontherocks.com/2025/05/will...

Mass, Maneuver, and Modern Warfare: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Fight, Part 2 - War on the Rocks

Part 2 of my discussion with @shashj.bsky.social is out. Come for mass precision and maneuver warfare, stay for observations from the war relevant to European force planning and defense contingencies. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika"
podcast, I'm joined by my colleague
@michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

AND THE WAR GRINDS ON The war continues, even if less people are paying attention.

On this week’s Power Vertical Podcast I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war & where it may be heading www.powervertical.org/2025/04/18/a...