Matt Savoca

Favorite Opto based CPT/MVPs: Mahomes, Worthy, Pachecho

Favorite Vibes based CPT/MVPs: Herbert, Hampton/Harris, Pacheco

Primary questions worth answering when building lineups/props:

- What's the RB market share breakdown between Hampton and Harris? (my guess: 60/40 OH, Harris getting GL work and OH in 2MD).

- Is Ladd ready to be a true WR1 or does someone else (QJ, KLS, or Keenan) step up?

Mahomes is a positive regression candidate in terms of production this season. The efficiency numbers dropped in 2024, but only a little bit. EPA and drive success rate numbers looked fine and drops affected CPOE (true for both QBs tbh)

Quick Hits for Friday Night Football (Chargers vs. Chiefs)

Was a bit surprised to see both squads played faster and passed more than average in neutral game scripts in 24. Even with a run-oriented identity, Harbaugh trusts Herbert when game's in reach. KC happy to lean pass/fast

Top opto-based CPTs/MVPs (early runs): Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, DeVonta Smith, Javonte Wiliams

Top vibes-based CPTs/MVPs: Saquon, A.J. Brown

Questions to consider when lineup and prop building: Is the DAL running game at all viable? PHI Def capable of overpowering an offense this talented? Does Saquon just dominate for 60min?

Dak needs to be better at finishing drives. Say what you will about last year's supporting cast, but he didn't play up to his typical standards evidenced by middling Drive Success/EPA ad CPOE. Philly's def was #3 in Pass Y/A and #1 in Pts/Play allowed.

Quick Hits for Week 1 Thursday Night Football (DAL @ PHI):

Expecting plenty of passing. Obviously Dallas is built around airing it out, but Philly's not afraid to either, and passed more often than expected in neutral game scripts. Last year DAL Defense was #30 in Yd/Pass Att🧵

AFC Championship Game DraftKings & FanDuel Showdown Plays: Bills at Chiefs Sunday Night NFL DFS Welcome to the Showdown breakdown for the AFC Championship Game, where two of the NFL's most dominant teams clash for a trip to the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs, boasting the league’s best regul...

My Championship Round Breakdowns:

AFC: www.4for4.com/2024/w21/afc...

NFC: www.4for4.com/2024/w21/nfc...

MAIN: www.4for4.com/2024/w21/con...

appreciate you man 👊

one day left: get my showdown breakdowns, ownership data, and breakout receiver model analysis (+ so much more) for just $6.99 over at @4for4football.bsky.social

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based opinion

ublock origin has a chance to do the funniest thing ever

Week 11 DraftKings & FanDuel Showdown Plays: Texans vs. Cowboys Monday Night NFL DFS Welcome to the Showdown Breakdown for Monday Night Football in Week 11 of the 2024 season, where the Houston Texans face off against the Dallas Cowboys in an all-Texas showdown. The Texans come into t...

My full analysis for MNF is live now ($)

2024 NFL scaled quarterback efficiency metrics heading into Week 11 MNF

never a good sign (if you like offense) when you can't find the QBs on the efficiency charts when breaking down a game

Jerry Jeudy was the top receiver in 4for4’s Week 11 Breakout Receiver Model @draftaholic.bsky.social

Breakout Receiver Model is now live for Week 11 over at 4for4 Football.

Check out my top buy-lows and sell highs (and some solid DFS main slate values) over at 4for4 ($):

www.4for4.com/2024/w11/bre...

Like I am trying to think of a less intelligent response and I don't know if there is, other than maybe the insinuation that the only other way to fix it was building a new stadium - which he also did. at least if JJ had provided garbled gibberish we would be concerned for his health

It's been three days and I still can't believe Jerry Jones told people with a straight face "the world knows where the sun is" while doubling-down on one of the most *glaring* self-owns in NFL history

Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel Showdown Plays: Dolphins vs. Rams Monday Night NFL DFS Welcome to the Showdown Breakdown for Week 10 Monday Night Football, where the Los Angeles Rams square off against the Miami Dolphins in a crucial primetime contest. The Rams have clawed their way bac...

www.4for4.com/2024/w11/wee...

Exploring NFL usage by share of team expected fantasy points (XFP), which weighs where/when/how players are utilized. Tells us how teams wanted to use their skill position players. Charts explained in this 🧵

First up, the NFC South, tied (with the NFC West) for the lowest total expected wins.