Orwa Ajjoub

From March 25–28, 2025, the VORTEX research network gathered at Uni Turin. PhD candidates shared their initial findings. Keynotes and discussions covered:

📊 Data Management
🧭 Ethics: Regina Ammicht & Quinn Marco Krüger
📣 Science Communication: Gabriele Marino

Next meeting: online in fall 2025.

Rather odd Syria section in the U.S. Director of National Intelligence’s annual threat assessment.

PDF, see p. 23: www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/defaul...

via @azelin.bsky.social: x.com/azelin/statu...

L’Armée nationale syrienne, groupe de rebelles affidés à la Turquie La progression soudaine des groupes armés hostiles au régime de Damas fait le jeu d’Ankara, qui contrôle ces milices par ailleurs très hostiles aux Kurdes.

"L’Armée nationale syrienne, groupe de rebelles affidés à la Turquie" La progression de l'ANS fait le jeu d’Ankara, qui contrôle ces milices très hostiles aux Kurdes. Selon le chercheur Orwa Ajjoub : "Pour l’heure, on peut parler d’une grande victoire pour Ankara." www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Islamismusforscher Orwa Ajjoub: "Syrien steht nicht vor dem Wechsel in die freiheitliche Demokratie" Der Sturz des Assad-Regimes hat die Welt überrascht. Der Malmöer Islamismusforscher Orwa Ajjoub erklärt, wie es dazu kam und was von den neuen Herrschern zu erwarten ist.

Der Sturz des Assad-Regimes hat die Welt überrascht. Der Malmöer Islamismusforscher Orwa Ajjoub erklärt, wie es dazu kam und was von den neuen Herrschern zu erwarten ist.

De Al Julani a señor Al Shara: las diferentes caras del nuevo líder de Siria El líder del grupo salafista HTS se ha impuesto a todas las facciones rivales tras romper con el ISIS y Al Qaeda y es definido por quienes lo conocen como una persona de gran inteligencia, ambición y ...

I was interviewed by @elpais.com to profile the de facto leader of #Syria Ahmad al-Sharaa:
elpais.com/internaciona...

And to discuss the future of #Syria under his rule:

elpais.com/internaciona...

A History of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Publicly Announced Counterterrorism Actions Against Islamic State Leaders and Members Today's arrests by the Syrian Caretaker Government against the Islamic State is a continuation of a counterterrorism campaign that HTS has been conducting against the Islamic State for years

In light of today's first arrests by the HTS-led Syrian government against the Islamic State since the fall of the regime, I'm unloading my archives, and sharing every time HTS announced conducting CT ops against IS, including today's. Fully open access. www.jihadologyplus.com/p/a-history-...

Over here, Syrian jihadism expert @orwaajjoub.bsky.social IDs some of the appointees: x.com/oajjoub/stat...

Inside HTS: what does Al-Jolani want and how will they rule? Podcast Episode · Behind The Lines with Arthur Snell · 16/12/2024 · 1h 7m

Digital technology played a vital role in the spread of the Arab Spring in 2011. The end of that story saw the collapse of the Assad regime at the hands of HTS. I spoke to @orwaajjoub.bsky.social, one of few people that knows the inner workings of the group.

5

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...

With #HTS now in power in #Damascus, the group’s authoritarian approach raises questions about its ability to unite a war-torn nation. #HTS must address internal divisions, external meddling, and local grievances—or risk an uncertain future in fragile #Syria. 8/8

Crossroads in Idlib: HTS navigating internal divisions amid popular discontent As the world focuses on Israel’s war in Gaza, northwest Syria is undergoing a significant political upheaval that could lead to major instability. For the last three months, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, an ...

Approaching 2024, #HTS faced internal rifts and growing civilian discontent in #Idlib. Economic strains, factional disputes, and local grievances all tested the group’s governance framework—raising doubts about its capacity to maintain unity. 7/8
www.mei.edu/publications...

HTS, Turkey, and the future of Syria’s north During the second week of October, unprecedented full-fledged military confrontations broke out in northern Syria between factions of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), with Hay’at Tahrir ...

In 2022, confrontations escalated. #HTS clashed with the Syrian National Army (#SNA) and navigated #Turkey’s involvement to expand its territorial hold. Rival factions contended for leverage, reshaping local alliances and elevating #HTS’s profile. 6/8
www.mei.edu/publications...

HTS is not al-Qaeda, but it is still an authoritarian regime to be reckoned with On June 1, PBS Frontline released a documentary entitled “The Jihadist,” which includes an interview by American journalist Martin Smith with al-Jolani, now the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), w...

By 2021, #HTS emerged as an authoritarian regime in northwest Syria—enforcing strict security measures, control, and limited political freedoms. Severing formal ties with #al_Qaeda allowed HTS to centralize power without external links. www.mei.edu/publications... 5/8

HTS and al-Qaeda in Syria: Reconciling the irreconcilable HTS launched multiple raids on SBS, forcing its factions to close their military bases and banning the formation of any new factions or operations rooms. In doing so, it has killed two birds with one ...

Also in 2020, debates raged over local vs. global agendas. #HTS’s focus on local governance contrasted with al-Qaeda’s transnational vision, intensifying splits and foreshadowing a decisive break in jihadist solidarity. www.mei.edu/publications...
4/8

Will Hayet Tahrir al-Sham destroy al-Qaeda in Syria? — Matthew Williams Turkey and the intra-jihadist conflict in northern Syria.

By 2020, ideological clashes intensified. #HTS sought a localized agenda, drifting from al-Qaeda’s global objectives and fueling power contests within jihadist circles. This pivot set the stage for broader confrontations in northern #Syria. 3/8
theconflictarchives.com/middle-east-...

From Jabhat al-Nusra to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, what has changed? — Matthew Williams From insurgency to mini-state: The evolution of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.

From 2012–2019, Jabhat al-Nusra formally cut ties with #ISIS 2013 and #AlQaeda 2016, paving the way for #HTS. Internal power plays and shifting alliances defined this formative phase, as rival factions jockeyed for influence and political gains. theconflictarchives.com/middle-east-.... 2/8

🧵I have studied #HTS for the last 8 years, and here is a curated selection of articles to help you understand its evolution, governance, and politics—spanning its inception in 2012 to the present in #Syria: 1/8

Speaking of historical Russian-Syrian cooperation, here's a report I wrote on the first 75 years of Russian-Syrian relations for the Swedish Institute of International Affairs: www.ui.se/butiken/uis-...

Thank you Aron!

Thank John!

Forskare: Det är ännu omöjligt för svensk-syrier att återvända Tolv frågor och svar om utvecklingen i Syrien.

Intervjuade @orwaajjoub.bsky.social

www.sydsvenskan.se/2024-12-13/f...

How Might the Rebels Govern Syria? Their Ruling History in Idlib Offers Clues The Islamist rebels who ousted Syria’s dictator ran a pragmatic and disciplined administration in the territory they controlled. They also jailed their critics.

“The hard-liner elements in the group have been sidelined,” @orwaajjoub.bsky.social said. “They want to rule and they are Islamists, but they are very pragmatic and really ready to interact with local communities.”

Thank you @snellarthur.bsky.social , I had great chat with you!

Have a listen to this extraordinary interview with @orwaajjoub.bsky.social who has incredible insight into HTS.