Julien Barnes-Dacey

My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order:

ecfr.eu/article/welc...

Members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will report to the Board of Peace via High Representative Nikolay Mladenov, were announced last week. For a full breakdown, visit @ecfr.eu's Mapping Palestinian Politics project 👇 ecfr.eu/special/mapp...

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans  – European Council on Foreign Relations Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and p

✍️ A brief momentum for a Gulf front collapsed as strained Saudi-Emirati relations gave way to open rivalry, driven by mistrust and suspicions of parallel agendas. @cinziabianco.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on the Saudi–UAE rupture and the European angle 👇 buff.ly/TUk8Evm

Will Trump bomb Iran? – European Council on Foreign Relations Mark Leonard and Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in Iran and the chance of US intervention

🎙️ NEW @ecfr.eu podcast: @markhleonard.bsky.social & Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in #Iran & the chance of #US invasion. Listen to it here 👇 ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

One year after Assad: Syria’s struggle for security, recovery and reform Ellie Geranmayeh speaks with Syrian minister Hind Kabawat about the country’s turbulent first year after Assad, the challenges ahead, and her push to bring more women into leadership during Syria’s…

ECFR podcast with Syrian Minister Hind Kabawat as part of our ongoing Women of Middle East Network for Peacebuilding project - One year after Assad: Syria’s struggle for security, recovery and reform @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate…

Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social

Glad to see this out!
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition

Our publications @ecfr.eu have been going gangbusters recently. This past month we have published a series of must-read policy briefs on Europe's southern flank:
ecfr.eu

The falcons and the secretary bird: Arab Gulf states in Sudan’s war The Arab Gulf states’ pursuits in Sudan keep fuelling violence. But their wealth and influence mean any lasting peace will necessarily hinge on their cooperation.

In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces captured the city of el-Fasher, resulting in fears of mass killings. To support long-term stability in Sudan, European policymakers can benefit from a closer understanding of Gulf interests, writes Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP

The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence.

Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives, writes @willbrownecfr.bsky.social @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3Jmv4cS

Diplomacy next: The internal politics of Hamas and the power of European engagement Europeans have the potential to tip the scales in the coming diplomatic negotiations over Gaza, but they must move rapidly…

New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...

Diplomacy next: The internal politics of Hamas and the power of European engagement Europeans have the potential to tip the scales in the coming diplomatic negotiations over Gaza, but they must move rapidly…

New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...

Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...

Today at the MED Dialogues: @jbdacey.bsky.social co-chairs with Maha Yahya a special dialogue with Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatari Minister of State, discussing regional approaches to Trump's Gaza plan & outlooks for Syria, Lebanon & Iran.

An imperfect promise: Where Trump’s peace plan for Gaza falls short Trump’s peace plan could finally bring an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza. But gaps in timing, guarantees, and last-minute Israeli amendments risk failure unless European and Arab states intervene...

1/ Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first Phase of Trump's plan. Nevertheless, the details are still unclear. Yet, our experts @hlovatt.bsky.social, @jbdacey.bsky.social and @muhammadshehada.bsky.social analysed its gaps in the recent papers @ecfrmena.bsky.social 👇
bit.ly/4gRX0Sg

The turtle and the pilot fish: How the EU and Italy can help each other in the Mediterranean Italy and the EU must work more closely together in the “Wider Mediterranean” on energy, migration and security. Here’s how they can do it.

Meloni aims to redefine Italy’s relationship with countries to its south by creating equal partnerships with partner states. This also involves enhancing the role of the private sector, write @kellyp90.bsky.social and @arturovarvelli.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42r0HbI

Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

An imperfect promise: Where Trump’s peace plan for Gaza falls short Trump’s peace plan could finally bring an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza. But gaps in timing, guarantees, and last-minute Israeli amendments risk failure unless European and Arab states intervene...

NEW piece unpacking the security & governance dimensions of Trump's Gaza plan - and outlining necessary benchmarks & guarantees, especially on an Israeli withdrawal, for any hope of success - new by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @muhammadshehada.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/an-i...

Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

1/3 With #Syria’s (indirect) #parliamentary #elections less than a week away, I’ve put together an explainer on how the process works and the key issues to watch. A guide for both experts and observers.
www.arab-reform.net/publication/...

Trump’s Gaza plan: How Europe can help make it happen European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza.

Euro support for Trump's plan - which has sound elements to help end the war - needs to be tied to Israel’s explicit acceptance of a Gaza withdrawal & political path. If not the process will surely unravel, trapping Europe as enforcers of Israeli occupation by proxy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/trum...

The risks of the draw: Europe’s post-snapback move on Iran European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran. Now they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open…

✍️ Now that European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open. Read Ellie Geranmayeh's piece for @ecfr.eu here 👇 buff.ly/w6z0osT

What a sight. Stranded in Idlib just 10 months ago, the new Syrian leadership hit Central Park

Civilians made up 15 of every 16 people killed by Israel in Gaza since March, data suggests Report from independent conflict tracker Acled indicates one of the highest civilian death rates since start of war

“15 of every 16 Palestinians the Israeli military has killed since its renewed offensive in Gaza began in March have been civilians… internal data from the IDF indicated a civilian death toll of 83% between outbreak of war in Oct 2023 & May this year” www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

The Druze 'National Guard' in Southern Syria I am happy to share my latest article for ‘Syria in Transition’ on the ‘National Guard’ initiative in the primarily Druze province of al-Suwayda’ in southern Syria.

“identification with the Syrian state is at its lowest point…the consolidation of over 35 Druze armed factions…a de facto autonomous zone across central, southern & eastern Suwayda” - @ajaltamimi.bsky.social on hardening anti-Damascus Druze positioning www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-druze-...

Netanyahu’s ‘peace through force’ doctrine hurts Syria talks Syria's foreign minister met Israeli officials in London on 17 September, sparking speculation that a deal is in the offing. But even if one is reached, it risks being more symbolic than substantive.

On the mismatch in Israeli-Syrian negots & how it could feed deep ongoing instability. “For Syria, talks are a means to reduce conflict and assert sovereignty; for Israel, they serve as an extension of its strategy of coercion” writes @haidhaid22.bsky.social en.majalla.com/node/327415/...

Out of the rubble: The new Gulf response to Israeli aggression The Israeli attacks on Doha, and America’s support of them, has caused Gulf leaders to majorly rethink their security. This could lead to a new Gulf-led security format…

Israel’s initial response to Oct 7 helped Gulf states by weakening Iran but it is now entrenching conflict, fragmenting Arab states & pulling Gulf states towards escalation, all of which also threatens Euro interests. @cinziabianco.bsky.social on post-Doha dynamics ecfr.eu/article/out-...

Qatar quake: Israel blows another hole in Middle East security The Doha strike risks deepening regional scepticism of Western security partnerships in the Middle East. Europe needs to do much more to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza and curbing its reg...

Qatar is at least the sixth country bombed by Israel in recent months. Europe must finally impose tangible pressure on Israel to end the Gaza war & its regional belligerence, doing far more to ensure its ties to Israel don't make it complicit in violations - new from @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/qata...

Ignore Siren Songs from Washington The United States is pushing toward a military solution for Hezbollah’s weapons, the worst option of all.

“Lebanon is being treated like a country that lost a war...However, embarking on a civil conflict to satisfy voices in Washington & Tel Aviv is suicide. There is absolutely no reason for the Lebanese to destroy themselves in order to purportedly save themselves” carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

Good paper by @abujamajem.com on Lebanese positioning on refugee returns and associated dynamics inside of Syria