David Spratt

New National Climate Risk Assessment – more omission than commission? The Albanese Government will soon deliver Australia’s first domestically-oriented National Climate Risk Assessment, which was due in December 2024.

Will Australia's new National Climate Risk Assessment – more omission than commission? johnmenadue.com/post/2025/08... Will it describe full spectrum of climate risks Australians will face, or be marred by a poor approach to risk analysis, bureaucratic incompetence and a limited vision?

#Climate warming has reached 1.5°C. What does that mean for climate activists? These are the hard questions policymakers and advocates are avoiding: www.climatecodered.org/2025/07/the-... And what would it really take to restore a safe climate?

The 1.5 degrees climate advocacy conundrum The climate emergency requires actions at emergency speed for a rapid transition to a post-carbon, safe-climate future.

"How was 2°C ever considered a reasonable goal? Answering that question — it wasn’t science-based, but first proposed by an economist — may provide insight into why 1.5°C isn’t either."

Safety = < 350 ppm and < 1°C.

www.climatecodered.org/2025/07/the-..., by @djspratt.bsky.social.

#Spratt.4.7 @djspratt.bsky.social
We have just lost 15 years.
1.5°C is here 15 years faster than policy makers thought it would be.
The IPCC risk analysis, the mitigation, the emergency management you know policy is
based on 1.5°C in 2040.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7zh...

#Spratt.4.10 @djspratt.bsky.social
From a risk management the worst case is relevant (plane crash..)
Policy makers, science, IPCC, doesn't look at the worst case scenarios.
Policy IPCC look at the middle range only.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7zh...

WE WERE "ALL HANDS ON DECK" OVER 10 YEARS AGO @djspratt.bsky.social.
WE'RE SO FUCKED @davemilbo.bsky.social.
www.motherjones.com/politics/201...
SO, SO, FUCKED @allouryesterdays.bsky.social *sighs*
#climatecrisis #climate #SundayShot

How bad can climate damage get? Worse than you imagine The climate emergency requires actions at emergency speed for a rapid transition to a post-carbon, safe-climate future.

How bad can #climate damage get? Worse than you imagine. There is reason to worry that the physical reality of accelerating climate disruption will mug Australia's risk assessment and leave us poorly prepared. www.climatecodered.org/2025/06/how-...

So in a consistently rising sequence of numbers an average over 20 past years understates current situation? That is, it is an indication of the trend 10 years ago? If warming has accelerated to ~0.3C per decade isn’t the current situation the average over last 20 years + 0.3C? Serious question.

As some have suggested the last 10 years plus projections of next 10 years would be more realistic. 2023 was 1.5C. 2024 was 1.6C and first 3 months of 2025 was 1.65C. It is wilful blindness to adhere to a reticent measure and not see that in practical terms we have arrived at 1.5C.

In a rising sequence of numbers an average over 20 past years will always understate the current trend. That’s the norm #climate scientists have adopted and it is reticent.

Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding? The bulk of climate research has tended to underplay worst-case scenarios, preferring cautious projections and scholarly reticence. This reticence is clearly displayed in the work of the IPCC, which c...

"This is a field in which knowledge is relatively new and growing quickly ... uncertainty can become an excuse for political delay; and the cost of not understanding the systemic risks may be the viability of major Earth systems and human societies."
@djspratt.bsky.social

#ClimateCrisis

Deserves to be widely read - not least by those of us engaging with IPCC AR7, just starting with the Special Report in Climate Change and Cities

Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding? The bulk of climate research has tended to underplay worst-case scenarios, preferring cautious projections and scholarly reticence. This reticence is clearly displayed in the work of the IPCC, which c...

My article on #climate research and scientific reticence in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is available for free until the close of business on April 23, out from behind the Bulletin paywall, and can be accessed at:
thebulletin.org/premium/2025...

But @djspratt.bsky.social's critique gets at how scientists themselves might be underestimating risks. There are multiple reasons for this, he explains: methodological, political, and social.

7 yrs ago the IPCC estimated the world would pass 1.5C between 2030-2052

The problem? We're already there.

Another fantastic article from the tipping points issue out from behind the paywall: @djspratt.bsky.social on the underestimation of climate threats at the intersection of science & policy

Government refuses to articulate 'frankly terrifying' security risks - Pearls and Irritations The Albanese Government has jammed itself not talking about the greatest threat to Australia’s future, playing politics with security issues.

Federal Labor Government playing politics with 'frankly terrifying' national climate Security Risks argues @djspratt.bsky.social
We need the Office of National Intelligence report declassified, made public.
#ClimateSecurity #Australia #ClimateCrisis
johnmenadue.com/government-r...

Australian government refuses to articulate "frankly terrifying" #climate security risks - johnmenadue.com/government-r.... Government opens itself to charge of playing politics with security issues by selectively briefing an intelligence report it has classified.

One study examined a number of past climate research predictions and found the scientists to have been “conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change” and that “at least some of the key attributes of global warming… have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science.” There was a tendency of scientists to “err on the side of least drama,” whose causes may include adherence to “the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation,” and this may cause scientists “to underpredict or downplay future climate changes” (Brysse, Oreskes et al. 2013).

Next, @djspratt.bsky.social on the "scientific reticence" that could result in understudying and underestimating the impacts of climate tipping points thebulletin.org/premium/2025...

Nuclear reactors could become targets of war, defence experts warn The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group has warned the Coalition's nuclear plans could leave Australia vulnerable to devastating attacks.

SBS: Australian nuclear reactors could become a target of war if the federal coalition was to go ahead with plans to build them, a group of former defence leaders warn. www.sbs.com.au/news/article...

YouTube video by Dr Monique Ryan MP Climate change and Australian security: a conversation with Admiral Chris Barrie

Must watch: Climate change and Australian security: a conversation with Admiral Chris Barrie. A Town Hall conversation with Independent @mon4kooyong.bsky.social, Climate analyst @djspratt.bsky.social and Admiral Chris Barrie. #climatesecurity #climatecrisis www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iVS...

#Climate shock and awe. The prime minister's climate speech we've been waiting for. Next Tuesday at 7pm. sustainabilityfestival.au/event/the-pm...

It shows in insurance. Uninsurable properties don’t get a mortgage!

All people in power accept, knew & know about the harm of #ClimateBreakdown. Even if they are silent or deny! #TheyKnew

Thankyou SLF, @djspratt.bsky.social @mon4kooyong.bsky.social ADML C Barrie
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXNx...

Event recording: www.youtube.com/watch?v=flgq...

Climate change and Australian security: a conversation with Admiral Chris Barrie YouTube video by Dr Monique Ryan MP

And if you can't get to this #climate and security town hall, it is being live-streamed at www.youtube.com/live/KXNxu5t...

Climate change and Australian security: a conversation with Admiral Chris Barrie

If you are in Melbourne, join us this Wednesday for #Climate change and Australian security: a conversation with Admiral Chris Barrie. www.moniqueryan.com.au/climate_secu...

Collision Course 3-degrees of warming & humanity's future

Today Tuesday 7.30pm webinar #climate “Collision course” (Australian eastern daylight time) events.humanitix.com/collision-co...

Collision course. 7:30pm to 8:30pm Tuesday 11 February 2025 on Zoom. Register now: events.humanitix.com/collision-co... #climate

Join us for a thought-provoking and vital forum exploring the findings of Collision Course, the latest report by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration. 7:30pm to 8:30pm Tuesday 11 February 2025 on Zoom. Register now: events.humanitix.com/collision-co...

An oldie from the quote vault but a goodie. David Spratt always writes the truth before others say it. @djspratt.bsky.social
Hansen said 1C was the safe temperature back in the time machine. But even 1C is dangerous - and here we are going past 1.5 heading to much worse
#ClimateEmergency

Climate and security risks? Shhh, says the Albanese Government - Pearls and Irritations The Australian Government’s work-in-progress National Climate Risk Assessment appears to be sinking fast, leaving us ill-prepared.

As we head into #AusVotes2025, worth reading @djspratt.bsky.social on the Labor Government failure to articulate the #climateCrisis threat: Climate and security risks? Shhh, says the Albanese Government.
johnmenadue.com/climate-and-...