David Spratt

Authoritarianism is undermining #climate action and time is running out. But as globalisation fades, national governments must assert their role in leading a climate emergency response:
johnmenadue.com/post/2026/02... @johnmenadue.com Briefing paper: www.breakthroughonline.org.au/_files/ugd/1...

Great @scitalkofficial.bsky.social episode with @djspratt.bsky.social on what's wrong with our climate policy makers. David suggests some just don't (want to) get the problem. And I totally agree. Giving away new oil & gas licenses is a death sentence to people.
As an energy expert, I say go solar!

YouTube video by Science Talk The Worst Outcome of Systematic Collapse I Cascading Climate Tipping Points I Climate Emergency

First video to cross 10K views. Thankful to all those who have supported me so far throughout this journey.
Happy Thanksgiving 🦃🍁🍽
@djspratt.bsky.social @climatenews.bsky.social
youtu.be/SWVZc1coiNQ?...

YouTube video by Science Talk Australian Politicians and Climate Problem

This is what happened when @djspratt.bsky.social talked with an Australian politician on oil and gas production.

youtube.com/shorts/KT_SB...

Interviews - YouTube We conduct interviews with authors, scientists, experts, policy makers, and communicators about climate, health, science, and technology. We discuss a variet...

Over the past several months, we hosted several scientists, experts, and authors to discuss climate change issue from various angles. @fisherdanar.bsky.social @drpauldorfman.bsky.social @cdelawalla.bsky.social @djspratt.bsky.social @climatehuman.bsky.social
Playlist: www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...

In this end of year episode I am looking back on the main climate highlights of 2025 with Research Director at the Breakthrough National Centre For Climate R... 2025 In Climate Review: AMOC, Overshoot & Emergency Briefings– With Guest David Spratt

AMOC "was the really big story of the year"—shocking even scientists working on it. @djspratt.bsky.social & I review '25's climate reality: from COP failures to the UK National Emergency Briefing filling Westminster Hall.
Essential👇
https://youtu.be/nJxh0UL3rGc
#ClimateScience #AMOC #ClimateCrisis

Great climate summary of the year with @djspratt.bsky.social on @nickbreeze.genn.cc’s excellent ClimateGenn podcast… and not just because they cover the #NationalEmergencyBriefing :)
@nebriefing.bsky.social

genn.cc/2025-in-clim...
#NEB2025

@scitalkofficial.bsky.social mit @djspratt.bsky.social über "Klimapolitik" -> Das Problem wird/will nicht verstanden werden. Vergabe neuer Öl- und Gaslizenzen = das Todesurteil für viele Menschen, ergänzt @torstenluetten.bsky.social, und weiters: "Nutzt Solarenergie"
bsky.app/profile/tors...

The Four Biggest Issues to Track at Climate Talks Welcome to COP30, officially. After the two-day leaders summit last week, the Conference of Parties starts today and will go on until at least Nov. 21.

#COP30 is just gonna work out great: "Any final deal will mean somehow finding a consensus that can be tolerated by both the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers and the small island states on the frontlines of sea level rise." #climate www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

YouTube video by Science Talk The Worst Outcome of Systematic Collapse I Cascading Climate Tipping Points I Climate Emergency

Science Talk podcast: My take on The Worst Outcome of Systematic Collapse, Cascading #Climate Tipping Points, and thebClimate Emergency. www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWVZ... and a big thanks to Muhammad Ittefaq for a no-holds-barred conversation.

Today, at 1.5 and 430 parts. Per million 302, climate change is already dangerous. That is, 1.5 is a political goal, not a moral goal.
@djspratt.bsky.social

YouTube video by MEER SRM 8. Risk Realism: Cooling a Livable Planet w/ David Spratt

A big thanks to Arjana and Kathy from MEER podcasts for this discussion on #climate risk realism and the case for cooling to a livable planet youtu.be/bTQ-xjgtA5E?...

New National Climate Risk Assessment – more omission than commission? The Albanese Government will soon deliver Australia’s first domestically-oriented National Climate Risk Assessment, which was due in December 2024.

Will Australia's new National Climate Risk Assessment – more omission than commission? johnmenadue.com/post/2025/08... Will it describe full spectrum of climate risks Australians will face, or be marred by a poor approach to risk analysis, bureaucratic incompetence and a limited vision?

#Climate warming has reached 1.5°C. What does that mean for climate activists? These are the hard questions policymakers and advocates are avoiding: www.climatecodered.org/2025/07/the-... And what would it really take to restore a safe climate?

The 1.5 degrees climate advocacy conundrum The climate emergency requires actions at emergency speed for a rapid transition to a post-carbon, safe-climate future.

"How was 2°C ever considered a reasonable goal? Answering that question — it wasn’t science-based, but first proposed by an economist — may provide insight into why 1.5°C isn’t either."

Safety = < 350 ppm and < 1°C.

www.climatecodered.org/2025/07/the-..., by @djspratt.bsky.social.

#Spratt.4.7 @djspratt.bsky.social
We have just lost 15 years.
1.5°C is here 15 years faster than policy makers thought it would be.
The IPCC risk analysis, the mitigation, the emergency management you know policy is
based on 1.5°C in 2040.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7zh...

#Spratt.4.10 @djspratt.bsky.social
From a risk management the worst case is relevant (plane crash..)
Policy makers, science, IPCC, doesn't look at the worst case scenarios.
Policy IPCC look at the middle range only.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7zh...

WE WERE "ALL HANDS ON DECK" OVER 10 YEARS AGO @djspratt.bsky.social.
WE'RE SO FUCKED @davemilbo.bsky.social.
www.motherjones.com/politics/201...
SO, SO, FUCKED @allouryesterdays.bsky.social *sighs*
#climatecrisis #climate #SundayShot

How bad can climate damage get? Worse than you imagine The climate emergency requires actions at emergency speed for a rapid transition to a post-carbon, safe-climate future.

How bad can #climate damage get? Worse than you imagine. There is reason to worry that the physical reality of accelerating climate disruption will mug Australia's risk assessment and leave us poorly prepared. www.climatecodered.org/2025/06/how-...

So in a consistently rising sequence of numbers an average over 20 past years understates current situation? That is, it is an indication of the trend 10 years ago? If warming has accelerated to ~0.3C per decade isn’t the current situation the average over last 20 years + 0.3C? Serious question.

As some have suggested the last 10 years plus projections of next 10 years would be more realistic. 2023 was 1.5C. 2024 was 1.6C and first 3 months of 2025 was 1.65C. It is wilful blindness to adhere to a reticent measure and not see that in practical terms we have arrived at 1.5C.

In a rising sequence of numbers an average over 20 past years will always understate the current trend. That’s the norm #climate scientists have adopted and it is reticent.

Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding? The bulk of climate research has tended to underplay worst-case scenarios, preferring cautious projections and scholarly reticence. This reticence is clearly displayed in the work of the IPCC, which c...

"This is a field in which knowledge is relatively new and growing quickly ... uncertainty can become an excuse for political delay; and the cost of not understanding the systemic risks may be the viability of major Earth systems and human societies."
@djspratt.bsky.social

#ClimateCrisis

Deserves to be widely read - not least by those of us engaging with IPCC AR7, just starting with the Special Report in Climate Change and Cities

Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding? The bulk of climate research has tended to underplay worst-case scenarios, preferring cautious projections and scholarly reticence. This reticence is clearly displayed in the work of the IPCC, which c...

My article on #climate research and scientific reticence in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is available for free until the close of business on April 23, out from behind the Bulletin paywall, and can be accessed at:
thebulletin.org/premium/2025...

But @djspratt.bsky.social's critique gets at how scientists themselves might be underestimating risks. There are multiple reasons for this, he explains: methodological, political, and social.

7 yrs ago the IPCC estimated the world would pass 1.5C between 2030-2052

The problem? We're already there.

Another fantastic article from the tipping points issue out from behind the paywall: @djspratt.bsky.social on the underestimation of climate threats at the intersection of science & policy

Government refuses to articulate 'frankly terrifying' security risks - Pearls and Irritations The Albanese Government has jammed itself not talking about the greatest threat to Australia’s future, playing politics with security issues.

Federal Labor Government playing politics with 'frankly terrifying' national climate Security Risks argues @djspratt.bsky.social
We need the Office of National Intelligence report declassified, made public.
#ClimateSecurity #Australia #ClimateCrisis
johnmenadue.com/government-r...

Australian government refuses to articulate "frankly terrifying" #climate security risks - johnmenadue.com/government-r.... Government opens itself to charge of playing politics with security issues by selectively briefing an intelligence report it has classified.

One study examined a number of past climate research predictions and found the scientists to have been “conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change” and that “at least some of the key attributes of global warming… have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science.” There was a tendency of scientists to “err on the side of least drama,” whose causes may include adherence to “the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation,” and this may cause scientists “to underpredict or downplay future climate changes” (Brysse, Oreskes et al. 2013).

Next, @djspratt.bsky.social on the "scientific reticence" that could result in understudying and underestimating the impacts of climate tipping points thebulletin.org/premium/2025...