Hannah Slaughter

An advert for job roles open at the Resolution Foundation for economists and researchers.

📢 Only a few days left to apply!

Applications for all three of our roles are closing first thing on Friday morning.

Find out more and apply now ➡️ buff.ly/GPBwRkS

Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social)

Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October

We're hiring for *three* roles in the RF research team, at a range of levels from entry to experienced. Deadline for all three is 19th September. More details in the link below 👇

An advert for job roles open at the Resolution Foundation for economists and researchers.

📣Ready for your next step? We're hiring for three exciting roles! 📣

Find out more and apply now ➡️ buff.ly/GPBwRkS

There are a few jobs going in the RF research team - more info here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

📣 New research published today! 📣

Our analysis reveals that multiple indicators suggest greater slack in the labour market than pre-pandemic and last year.

Read in full here 👉 buff.ly/a9SnWhw

📣 We're hiring! 📣

Do you have an interest in the economic and social policy of the UK and an eye for detail?

Find out more about joining our team as a Researcher ⤵️ buff.ly/EmREN1c

Today’s labour market statistics show that the jobs market is continuing to loosen, with jobs, vacancies and pay growth all weakening.

Our @resfoundation.bsky.social take, from myself and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, is below...

Opening doors • Resolution Foundation Improving employment outcomes for disabled people is essential not just for raising living standards, but also for supporting economic growth. To increase the employment of disabled people, the report...

How can we support employers to hire and retain disabled staff?

@benbgeiger.bsky.social and I explore this question, and set out four concrete policy proposals, in a new @resfoundation.bsky.social report out today: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Don't forget about us • Resolution Foundation This briefing note combines quantitative data with insights from focus groups to explore how disabilities and caring responsibilities affect these families’ lives and living standards.

Debates on disability are increasingly polarised, esp on benefits – but the reality is that disability and caring responsibilities shape life for millions of low-to-middle income families, and policymakers shouldn’t forget that. Read the full report here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Finally, our report mainly focuses on living standards, but public services matter too. As well as reviewing formal social care (which an independent govt review is doing), local authorities should restore support for carers such as respite care, which has been cut by £84m since the mid-2010s.

The Carer’s Allowance cliff edge (which the Government is currently reviewing) should be replaced with an earnings taper, and the carer’s element of Universal Credit should be increased to match the health element.

How can policy help? On paid work, the Employment Rights Bill will particularly benefit disabled people and carers, given they’re more likely than other groups to be in insecure work, but the Govt should also bring in paid carer’s leave so more carers can stay in work.

Proportion of working-age adults in material deprivation, by benefit received: UK, 2023-24

“It is a bit of a head mess, to be quite honest, the benefit system. … The headache that they put people through, like who – when you’re actually going through the stress of it all, who’s even got the time or the mental capability to even go through another form?” (Focus group participant with physical and mental health conditions)

The system’s baffling. Nobody really has got the time to sit down and do it. … It’s a full-time job in itself just doing all the paperwork, basically.” (Focus group participant caring for disabled adult child)

Benefits are vital, but often fail to adequately protect living standards. 70%+ of people receiving the health and care elements of Universal Credit face material deprivation, people lose Carer’s Allowance entirely once they earn >£196 a week, and the system can be complex for claimants to navigate.

Proportion of employed people on a flexible contract, working in the gig economy or solo self-employed in low-to-middle income households (left panel) and higher-income households (right panel), by whether individual is disabled or a carer: UK, 2022-2023

“Yeah, I get flexibility. But the thing is, I don’t really get like extra benefits. I don’t get no annual leave, I don’t, I don’t get sick pay, so if I’m unwell, I’ll have to just have unpaid leave.” (Self-employed focus group participant caring for disabled parent and two children)

“There’s no sick pay … none of that kind of stuff. … The times I’ve had to take off, even if it’s one day, it does make a difference. … You do worry in the background, having to take time off because of that financial impact.” (Self-employed focus group participant with mental health conditions)

To get the flexibility they need, disabled people and carers often turn to flexible contracts, self-employment and the gig economy. But these can come with downsides such as unpredictable hours and a lack of sick pay.

“There have been times when I’ve kind of just, you know, come to a wall … and taken off, you know, however much time off.” (Focus group participant, self-employed part time, with a mental health condition)

“I got a job more locally and it was working part time, four days a week, so it gave [my wife] some comfort that if I, if something happened, I would be able to get to her.” (Focus group participant, working part time, caring for disabled partner)

“[My health condition] would affect [me] if I was working with the public. You need to be fully on form, don’t you? And I’m just, one day I’m on, then I’m off.” (Focus group participant, not in paid work, with mental and physical health conditions)

Proportion of working-age disabled people and people caring for someone in their household in low-to-middle income families who report selected limitations to the paid work they can do: UK, 2022-2023

One reason is limitations on paid work – and this extends beyond not being able to work at all. For example, 58% of disabled workers say their physical health limits the kind of work they can do, and 41% of working carers have had to cut their hours due to caring.

Annual difference in equivalised household income compared to families with neither a disabled person nor a carer, after controlling for selected demographic and family characteristics, by whether the family includes a disabled person or a carer: UK, 2023-24

Disability and caring can come with a big living standards penalty. Families with both a disabled member and a carer have a £3,300 income gap compared to similar families with neither, rising to £7,600 if we strip out disability benefits that just cover extra costs rather than replace income.

Proportion of working-age adults who are disabled or are caring for someone who is ill, disabled or elderly for at least five hours a week, and proportion of families with a disabled member or a carer, by household income: UK, 2023-24

Disability and caring often overlap. Overall, just over a third of adults in low-to-middle income families are disabled or a carer, and 4% (800k people) are both. 43% of low-to-middle income families (5.6m) include a carer or a disabled person, and 9% of these families (1.0m) include both.

Proportion of working-age adults who are caring for a sick, disabled or elderly person for at least five hours a week, by income group: UK

Caring responsibilities are also more common among low-to-middle income families. 1 in 10 working-age adults in low-to-middle income families provide 5+ hours a week of unpaid care, with women and older working-age adults most likely to be carers.

Proportion of working-age adults who are disabled, by household income: UK

Disability is concentrated among low-to-middle income Britain. Working-age adults in these families are twice as likely to be disabled as those on higher incomes (30% vs 15%), and disability rates have risen by around half over the past 30 years.

Don't forget about us • Resolution Foundation This briefing note combines quantitative data with insights from focus groups to explore how disabilities and caring responsibilities affect these families’ lives and living standards.

ICYMI - new report out yesterday by me and Imogen Stone on how disabilities and caring affect low-to-middle income families, drawing on quant analysis and focus groups with disabled people and carers. Thread on key findings below 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Don't miss our event tomorrow!

The rising prevalence of disability (and its implications for the benefits bill) has been under the spotlight.

But the impact on disabled people, and the family members who care for them, has been less discussed.

Sign-up➡️ buff.ly/TUDwBnu

Low Pay Britain 2025 • Resolution Foundation This year’s Low Pay Britain report – the 15th in an annual series taking stock of low-paid work in the UK –takes on three important questions as the ERB heads towards becoming law. First, we look at t...

New report today asks: where next for the Govts. employment reforms? One of biggest elements of the bill is hours insecurity - something that could help millions of workers - but key details are missing.

Here are our thoughts and suggestions
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Thanks to those who came along this morning, if you didn't I think worth your time to watch (vid is on the event page below). The panel was three people who really know the history and the detail, and what it takes to make a success of big reforms.

Here are some points from the report

Screenshot of text: As part of our commitment to protect the most vulnerable and severely disabled, peace of mind will also be given to 200,000 individuals in the Severe Conditions Criteria group - individuals with the most severe and permanently disabling conditions who will never be able to work - as they will not be called for reassessed for Universal Credit (UC) under new legislation. Those protected from reassessment will also be paid the higher rate of UC health top up of £97 per week, so they can live with dignity and security, knowing the reforms to the welfare system mean it will always be there to support them.

The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill has been released. Here's a short thread highlighting a few things we learned:

(1) 200,000 people who are in the 'Severe Conditions Criteria group' will be protected from the changes to UC-H.

PS if you want more detail on the alternative employment rate we calculate using admin data, you can see the methodology and download the time series here www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...

Cumulative growth in nominal earnings since April 2024, by measure: GB/UK

And some pay measures paint a stronger picture of pay growth - for example, median earnings according to HMRC’s payroll data grew by 6.2 per cent over the year to April.

Growth in nominal private sector average weekly earnings, change since a year earlier and annualised change compared to three months earlier: GB

But on shorter term measures, there was a small uptick in private sector pay growth in the latest data - quarter-on-quarter growth ticked up to the equivalent of 4.1% a year in the three months to April, up from 3.3% in the three months to March.

Annual growth in average weekly earnings (regular pay) and CPIH inflation: GB

We’d expect this kind of labour market weakening to show up in pay growth, albeit with a lag. There’s some sign of that happening - nominal growth in regular pay has fallen back to its lowest rate since September (5.2%), and real pay growth is down to 1.4% (it was above 2% as recently as February).

Number of paid employees in hospitality and wholesale/retail according to real-time PAYE data: UK

Why is employment falling? We don’t have solid evidence yet, but we’re seeing big falls in low-paying sectors like hospitality and retail (disregard the May data for now), consistent with this being linked to the NICs increase.