This supports the evidence I have seen in the ECMWF and other sources as well. This also changes significantly the risk and duration of cold for North America.
24.11.2025 17:49 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0@wxjay.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. I study large-scale climate dynamics, subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, and extreme weather. Proud RI native and New England sports fan. Opinions & thoughts are my own. πΊπΈ π΅πΉ
This supports the evidence I have seen in the ECMWF and other sources as well. This also changes significantly the risk and duration of cold for North America.
24.11.2025 17:49 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0File this under "Not the canonical response to major SSWs across much of the Northern Hemisphere."
Much of Eurasia is forecast to be above average.
In North America, the pattern looks more like strat reflection with MJO Phase 6-8 teleconnections mixed in.
From the latest ECMWF weeklies. #S2S
The NH #PolarVortex is very weak right now, with a hint from the ECMWF of winds at 10 hPa, 60 N becoming slightly below zero m/s (i.e., turning easterly) for 1 day. Then, a very rapid strengthening thereafter. Whether this officially becomes a major SSW or not remains to be seen. #S2S
24.11.2025 15:15 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0What verification data is used afterwards?
18.11.2025 17:06 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Record high today in OKC. Likely one tomorrow too.
But, based on what I have seen, the stratosphere will have something to say about this warmth soon.
Colder and potentially stormier conditions are on the horizon just near and after Thanksgiving. π
Congratulations to my former PhD student Ollie Millin for the acceptance of this paper from his PhD dissertation!
Millin, O. T., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Subseasonal predictability of cold spells in the Central United States. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Congratulations to my former MS student Katie Giannakopoulos for the acceptance of this paper from her MS thesis!
Giannakopoulos, K., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Examining the characteristics and evolution of wintertime temperature whiplash events in the United States Southern Plains. J. Climate
Drake Maye for MVP! #Patriots
14.11.2025 04:26 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Henderson gets the TD!!! #Patriots
14.11.2025 03:04 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Academic & science folks: Looking for a new laptop for work. Debating between a 13" MacBook Air vs. 14" MacBook Pro. Would configure them the same way (24 GB RAM, 1 TB SSD, 10 Core CPU, 10-Core GPU).
I am only considering Apple, no PCs. :)
Any thoughts or opinions on which to get? Thanks!
What are your thoughts about the job market for meteorology undergraduates? My impression (albeit through anecdotes) is that the market is becoming saturated for undergraduates and is difficult even for those with advanced degrees.
11.11.2025 18:53 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0From what I understand, this "deal" only funds the government into January.
10.11.2025 03:05 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0It's almost "Working late at night with Delilah and Christmas music" season.
07.11.2025 18:57 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Yes, and now comes the challenge of governing, including working with City Council, state government, and the federal government.
05.11.2025 19:25 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Thank you for your blog.
What do you mean by βa polar vortex dropping into the western Great Lakes?β Are you talking about a tropopause polar vortex?
The term βpolar vortexβ alone is traditionally reserved for the stratospheric polar vortex (way up in the Arctic stratosphere).
Breaking news: The Trump administration is sending messages to federal staff suggesting only those who are working during the government shutdown will be paid when it ends, despite a 2019 law that guarantees pay to furloughed employees, too.
04.11.2025 17:22 β π 416 π 239 π¬ 57 π 92It was a fun Halloween - passed out candy to the kids as Clark Kent / Superman!
01.11.2025 13:44 β π 9 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Absolutely wild to see these satellite estimates for a hurricane.
28.10.2025 02:36 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Rotaries instead of 4-way stops in Moore/Norman. I'm all on board.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/c...
OU grad students:
- Want to learn data analysis techniques for your research?
- Want to understand and critique the methods used in the journal articles you read?
- Want to build your own statistical toolbox to use in the future?
Enroll in Advanced Statistical Meteorology in Spring 2026!
The Patriots are 6-2 now. Amazing. Just hoping to get a chance to watch them on TV while in Oklahoma...
26.10.2025 23:52 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Inflation Report Likely to Show Sticky Price Pressures www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
24.10.2025 12:36 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Oh.
23.10.2025 21:09 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Breaking News: President Trump is having the White Houseβs entire East Wing demolished to make way for his $200 million ballroom. The project is far more extensive than he initially let on.
22.10.2025 19:40 β π 1100 π 446 π¬ 389 π 277