Andrea Ghiselli's Avatar

Andrea Ghiselli

@andreaghiselli.bsky.social

Lived 10+ years in China, now University of Exeter and ChinaMed Project. Published a book on China, its military, and its interests overseas (OUP, 2021): https://shorturl.at/S2BjTo More at https://andreaghiselli.com/ 无巧不成书

2,520 Followers  |  929 Following  |  385 Posts  |  Joined: 18.07.2023  |  1.9134

Latest posts by andreaghiselli.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Does joining the Belt and Road Initiative help Chinese construction firms? Not always. A few days ago, the Financial Times published an article where it was reported that some recent studies have found that “The value of Chinese companies’ new investment and construction contracts in co...

New post in Substack!

Does joining the Belt and Road Initiative help Chinese construction firms? Not always.

substack.com/home/post/p-...

28.07.2025 13:15 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Do you want to become a senior diplomat in China? Do not go abroad. About one month ago, Tyler Jost and Yucong Li published a very cool paper in China Quarterly. From the data to the findings, this article is really interesting. I wish I was the author! The paper cont...

New post on Substack!

I review a great paper published by Tyler Jost and Yucong Li on the promotion dynamics among senior Chinese diplomats.

open.substack.com/pub/thoughts...

22.07.2025 13:32 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Article review: Disappearing Research: Academic Control and Self-Censorship in China This is a fascinating article that was published recently in The China Journal. It deal with an important topic, of course. While the part on the effects of censorship on Englihs-language journals is ...

Like many, I've created a Substack. I will be mostly sharing reviews and comments on articles and books on China that I read.

If you publish something, share it with me! I'll include it in the review pipeline.

In the meantime, this is the first post.

thoughtsonchina.substack.com/p/article-re...

22.07.2025 05:40 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Submitted!

22.07.2025 05:38 — 👍 4    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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China, Egypt deepen ties as Beijing ups influence in bid to solve Mideast crises Premier Li Qiang pledges more Chinese investment in Egypt during Cairo visit as China seeks to expand influence in region amid US rivalry.

I was quoted in this South China Morning Post article on Li Qiang's recent visit to Egypt

@cais-exeter.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk

www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

12.07.2025 23:40 — 👍 2    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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Iran Pivots Toward China, But Is Beijing Ready To Play Ball? After a devastating war with Israel exposed the weakness of its air force, Iran is reportedly turning to China for advanced military hardware. But Beijing’s reluctance -- and Moscow’s inaction -- high...

Will Iran get Chinese weapons? Never say never. However, two other experts and I are quite skeptical at the moment.

@cais-exeter.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk

www.rferl.org/a/iran-china...

02.07.2025 04:27 — 👍 0    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
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The large and growing use of electronic trucks saves China a more than 1 million barrels of oil per day, that’s also Oman’s daily oil production. The saving will grow by 600.000 barrels over then next 12 months.

02.07.2025 04:08 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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After a long gestation, this @universitypress.cambridge.org Element on Sino-Middle Eastern relations finally has a page and a publication date!

This new work by Mohammed al-Sudairi and I will be in Open Access.

www.cambridge.org/core/element...

26.06.2025 12:34 — 👍 4    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 1
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China hosts Iran, Russia defence ministers against backdrop of 'turmoil' China hosted defence ministers from Iran and Russia for a meeting in its eastern seaside city of Qingdao on Thursday against the backdrop of war in the Middle East and a summit of NATO countries in Eu...

Some comments about the SCO MOD meeting in Qingdao for @en.afp.com

@exeter.ac.uk @cais-exeter.bsky.social

www.france24.com/en/live-news...

26.06.2025 09:33 — 👍 0    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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US strikes on Iran force China to reconsider Donald Trump’s isolationism President’s willingness to use military force prompts rethink in Beijing over Taiwan

My two cents on the Chinese reaction to US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in this @financialtimes.com article along those of other experts in the field

@cais-exeter.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk

www.ft.com/content/6e89...

26.06.2025 07:27 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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Spanish PM rejects Nato’s ‘unreasonable’ 5% GDP target for defence spending – as it happened Pedro Sánchez reportedly says move would be ‘counterproductive’ and harm Spanish economy

Is Spain's PM the only European leader who has NOT lost his marbles? Is it possible that the rest committed such a crime against their own governments' finances as to commit to a ludicrous military budget of 5% of GDP? Pure bonkers! www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...

24.06.2025 04:28 — 👍 262    🔁 79    💬 8    📌 5
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Chartbook 393: Whither China? - World Economy Now, June 2025 Edition ... or "Quality into quantity": how to see China's historic development through the veil of macroeconomics.

Must read

open.substack.com/pub/adamtooz...

22.06.2025 14:07 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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What Regime Change Means in Iran A new Iran may emerge from the current conflict, but don’t expect a democracy.

Excellent piece

foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/19/w...

22.06.2025 08:52 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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Available data indicate that the stock value of Chinese FDI in North Africa and the Middle East platoed in 2020 and started declining in 2023.

Given how things have been in the region in the past two years, how unlikely is that that was the peak?

21.06.2025 14:03 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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China sends mystery transport planes into Iran Flight plans indicated a final destination of Luxembourg, but the aircraft appeared to have never flown near European skies

My comments on the mysterious cargo flights from China disappearing in Iran in this @telegraphnews.bsky.social article

@exeter.ac.uk @cais-exeter.bsky.social

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

18.06.2025 07:55 — 👍 3    🔁 2    💬 1    📌 0
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China’s bid to mediate Israel-Iran conflict: How much sway does it really have? Analysts say China's calls for de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict reflect not just diplomatic ambition, but concern over its own vulnerabilities - from oil routes and regional projects to tensi...

My comments for Channel News Asia on China’s interests in and potential approach to the Israel-Iran conflict

@cais-exeter.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk

www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/ch...

18.06.2025 07:34 — 👍 4    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 1
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Very happy to announce that Todd Hall and I have just signed the advance contract for a new @universitypress.cambridge.org Element book in the Global China series.

Stay tuned 😎

16.06.2025 15:44 — 👍 14    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0

If the Islamic Republic of Iran falls*, the most likely successor is a hardline, nationalist, no less auhoritarian military regime.

*I don't think it's about to fall, unfortunately
**Caveat: we are all bad at predicting any regime's collapse
***The other likely scenario is chaos

15.06.2025 17:24 — 👍 36    🔁 9    💬 9    📌 2

😃

16.06.2025 15:46 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Very happy to announce that Todd Hall and I have just signed the advance contract for a new @universitypress.cambridge.org Element book in the Global China series.

Stay tuned 😎

16.06.2025 15:44 — 👍 14    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0
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Getting ready to fly to Brussels for this very timely event organized by @egmontinstitute.bsky.social

14.06.2025 12:13 — 👍 3    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
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China warns of fallout from Israel’s strikes on Iran, eyes role in easing crisis Beijing voices ‘grave concern’ over Israel’s attacks, while analysts say future of conflict depends on how the US and China intervene.

My comments for the South China Morning Post on China’s possible reaction to the Iran-Israel clash

@exeter.ac.uk @cais-exeter.bsky.social

amp.scmp.com/news/china/d...

14.06.2025 00:20 — 👍 1    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
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From rebels to soldiers: Foreign fighters in Syria’s new army Formally integrating foreign fighters into Syria’s new army is viewed as a pragmatic political move, but one which alarms many in Syrian society

I was quoted in this @thenewarab.bsky.social article on the presence of foreign fighters, especially Uyghurs, in the Syrian army, and China’s approach to them

@cais-exeter.bsky.social

www.newarab.com/analysis/reb...

10.06.2025 22:24 — 👍 4    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
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It’s in the hands of the gods now…

10.06.2025 04:19 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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I’ll be in Shanghai for 1-2 months! If you are around, let me know!

09.06.2025 22:30 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Light at the end of the tunnel!

02.06.2025 10:28 — 👍 4    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Well done, Ethan.

24.05.2025 22:20 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Türkiye’s Political Turmoil: Shifting Chinese Narratives between 2023 and 2025 The protests across Türkiye have led Chinese scholars to reassess the sustainability of Erdoğan’s rule, despite their recently more favorable views of Turkish foreign policy.

Miriam Verzellino and I have written a short piece on the reaction of Chinese commentators to the recent protests in Turkey and how their perception of Turkish politics has changed over the past few years.

chinamed.substack.com/p/turkiyes-p...

21.05.2025 14:09 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Wagner rebellion (June 2023) Sergey Radchenko's research notes

The Wagner rebellion (June 2023) open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... These here are my research notes on the Wagner rebellion (for the Russia-Ukraine project). Will be adding to this in coming months and years. Just wanted to share.

17.05.2025 22:03 — 👍 14    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0
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Exmouth

17.05.2025 11:53 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

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