Javier Enrique Aguilar

Forbidden Sidon subsets of perfect difference sets, featuring a human-assisted proof We resolve a $1000 Erdős prize problem, complete with formal verification generated by a large language model. In over a dozen papers, beginning in 1976 and spanning two decades, Paul Erdős repeated...

This paper is a delight along multiple axes. It describes an Erdős problem that was solved 30 years before Erdős declared it open. arxiv.org/abs/2510.19804

Thought of the day: It is somewhat mysterious why Gaussians remain stable under the particle-minimizing flow (i.e. the Wasserstein gradient flow) for so many widely used energies: entropy, Fisher information, quadratic interaction potentials, functionals depending only on mean and covariance,

Do terminal-embedded LLMs have pipe dreams

"Fig 1. The causal structure of Banana" (Apparently your favourite mid-morning snack is a mediation problem)

A palate cleanser: 'The causal structure of banana'. Robust, simply structured, and convenient. 8/10. The DAG is nice too.

This is the first of three bananadags in Hitchcock (2016) "Conditioning, intervening, and decision".

sensational energy here

Last year, I had a paper rejected after 18 months with the @amjepi.bsky.social.

It's the first time I've had a paper rejected after being invited for revisions. And the first time I've had a paper sent out to completely new reviewers.

It stung so hard that it's taken me a year to look at again.

35 years ago, on October 3, 1990, Germany was reunified. Just two months later, voters in the former GDR went to the polls in the first free federal election since the Weimar era. Despite decades of socialist dictatorship, East German voting behavior displayed marked regional differences. Thread🧵

My Bayesian Data Analysis course at Aalto is starting in 20mins. There are now 375 registered students, but as the course is not compulsory for most, I expect about 230 students to finish it. All the course material is available online at avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A...

A mouse wwaring a wizzard hat and holding a stick with the text "you must learn to proceed without certainty".

@rmcelreath.bsky.social be like

hey @lunafazio.bsky.social welcome :)

Hope you enjoy the UK :)

What about trains?

don’t give up on quarto :) adapt, evolve, survive

Javier Enrique Aguilar, David Kohns, Aki Vehtari, Paul-Christian B\"urkner
R2 priors for Grouped Variance Decomposition in High-dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11833

Finite mixture models are useful when data comes from multiple latent processes.

BayesFlow allows:
• Approximating the joint posterior of model parameters and mixture indicators
• Inferences for independent and dependent mixtures
• Amortization for fast and accurate estimation

📄 Preprint
💻 Code

I was at an event last week and someone said that there should be a social network where you could only join if you have an institutional email from a university 🤣.

Orange cats are the nicest

unsolved millennium prize problems are just evidence that the problems are wrongly priced. if they gradually raise the reward money, eventually the supply and demand will match and a solution will arise. its just economics

as my final act of love i'll recommend rejection

Javier Enrique Aguilar, Paul-Christian B\"urkner
Dependency-Aware Shrinkage Priors for High Dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10715

StanBio Connect 2025 – StanBio Advancing Biomedical Research with Stan

StanBio Connect 2025 free online conference May 30 stanbio.org

... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty

2) The next two days will be focused on a topic of current interest in Bayesian analysis. The topic of this edition is "Bayesian modelling with brms". This 12-hour course is provided by Javier Enrique Aguilar (TU Dortmund University, Germany).

The València International #Bayesian Summer School (#VIBASS 8), a four-day summer school designed to provide an introduction to Bayesian learning, will take place7-10 July 2025 in València, Spain.

Info and registration can be found at vabar.es

hasn’t happened and perhaps won’t ever happen to me
condolences

"CALL FOR PAPERS"

Beautiful ♥️

journals when you ask about the status of your manuscript

I already advertised for this document when I posted it on arXiv, and later when it was published.

This week, with the agreement of the publisher, I uploaded the published version on arXiv.

Less typos, more references and additional sections including PAC-Bayes Bernstein.

arxiv.org/abs/2110.11216

During World War 1, fighting temporarily ceased in the trenches for Christmas and some German troops put up a sign meaning God with us – GOTT MIT UNS. The British troops then crawled across no-man’s land and wrote their own message on the German sign – WE GOT MITTENS TOO