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Andrew Pavelyev

@andrewpavelyev.bsky.social

PhD in Physics, doing mathematical modeling in Health Economics and Outcomes Research (HEOR), particularly in Epidemiology. Living in Charlotte, NC. Originally from Moscow suburbs (the USSR literally collapsed on me as I was leaving).

11 Followers  |  8 Following  |  71 Posts  |  Joined: 04.12.2023  |  2.2024

Latest posts by andrewpavelyev.bsky.social on Bluesky

But everybody knows there was no way the British, the Soviets or the US could be evicted from Afghanistan.

11.08.2025 14:21 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes. The fortress on top of the hill is an instant identifier.

09.08.2025 12:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Has not changed much since I visited in 1998.

09.08.2025 11:59 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Sure. I used to write for Frum Forum and then for HuffPo, but eventually they closed the platform to unpaid contributors. But in the meantime I started writing a lot for medical journals. Now I'm even on an editorial board of one (which just a glorified name for a peer reviewer)

05.08.2025 14:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Hi! I hardly write here. But out of principle I don't ever post anything on Twitter at all. So it's still more here.

05.08.2025 14:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

We are not screwing Europe - we are screwing ourselves by rising our own prices. The Europeans reasonably refused to do the same to themselves. MAGAites are the ones hit the worst, while the rich are the winners, since they basically converted some of their own taxes into consumption taxes on others

28.07.2025 14:59 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Ah, I'm about to get off the computer until late evening... I guess I'll read it in 12 hours or so.

20.07.2025 14:44 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The problem is that he's already provided plenty of video. And it's not just the Palestinians. It's "defund the police", state run grocery stores, rent freeze, free buses etc. He'll be made the face of the party.

26.06.2025 00:11 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The problems will start next year. The midterms campaign will effectively start on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, with the commemoration presided over by a Muslim mayor refusing to condemn Islamic terrorism. It's not difficult to imagine what the GOP will make out of it. The Dems are screwed, bigly.

25.06.2025 18:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

What attempt to appeal? I'm a conservative Republican and I voted straight Democratic ticket (yet again). But nobody tried to appeal to me (except for Dem candidate for NC superintendent of education who broke with his party on the only issue important to me and then flipped that office from GOP).

25.06.2025 11:03 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The Left would have surely showed up in force.

25.06.2025 09:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

NYC primary proves that Biden was right to run again. A real Democratic primary would have become a freak show resulting in the party's wipeout (instead of losing the presidency by 1.46% and both chambers of Congress by just a few seats).

25.06.2025 08:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
Attack on Tu-95 Strategic bomber by Ukrainian FPV drone

Attack on Tu-95 Strategic bomber by Ukrainian FPV drone

**Operation Spiders Web**

I resisted a hot take. So, on sober reflection…

Op Spiderweb was one of the most impressive, and strategic attacks ever. Short thread 🧡 #russia #Ukraine

10.06.2025 10:50 β€” πŸ‘ 720    πŸ” 191    πŸ’¬ 15    πŸ“Œ 6

You know that we won't.

09.06.2025 11:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Alina Habba?

31.05.2025 08:19 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

What is Putin doing? Unless he actually has a solid hold over Trump one way or another, he's taking big risks, e.g. talking about "emotional overload". Trump is VERY sensitive to being laughed at. Dissing him is dangerous. And so is making him look weak.

27.05.2025 16:17 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Me too.

24.05.2025 10:02 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I wonder if somebody from Samsung was at the Trump dinner last night and asked him to impose a special tariff on Apple :-)

24.05.2025 01:14 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Why shocking?! They are still proud of Walter Duranty's Pulitzer. They have a history of spreading Kremlin's line about its genocide of Ukrainians.

19.05.2025 12:05 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Saying that is actually a crime in Russia (denying the decisive role of the Soviet Union in defeat of Germany and Japan).

03.05.2025 01:20 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The Ukrainians must categorically refuse and state that all Russian tanks are legitimate military targets, whether in Ukraine or on streets of Russian cities. The parade is a big deal for Putin, and Ukraine should not help. A lot of Russian AD has moved to Moscow, so elsewhere may be easier to hit.

28.04.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

In the Spring of 1987 the Soviets stopped jamming Voice of America and I listened to it every night until March 1992 when I left for the US.

18.03.2025 11:30 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

When he said "we", he meant himself and his billionaire pals, not you.

12.03.2025 17:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

No, I don't. But I don't see it in the text of the Constitution either. Even many liberal scholars said that Roe was poorly argued. Once it was decided, it would be better to leave it alone (stare decisis is a valuable principle), but it would have been even better to pass a law rather than Roe.

10.03.2025 03:08 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

We started losing it earlier, when Scalia raised judicial activism to new level and started ignoring actual text of the Constitution, e.g. in Heller (rather than just "discovering" something that was not in the text, like the liberals did - e.g. finding the right to an abortion between the lines).

10.03.2025 02:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It gets it but refuses to admit it.

02.03.2025 12:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

We have known this for over 8 years, ever since the massive Russian intervention in the 2026 election was revealed. Now we are just gaining better understanding of WHY Putin took such a big risk, given that Hillary was expected to win. He's getting huge payoff now. The greatest intel operation ever.

28.02.2025 19:13 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Who could imagine in 2003 that we would elect Baghdad Bob our president?

25.02.2025 09:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

So did everyone who really paid attention. I already could not stand him in 2010. And back then I could not even imagine ever not voting straight Republican ticket. I first wrote about him on FrumForum in 2011 and later multiple times on HuffPo (e.g. urged him to drop out after NH primary in 2016).

22.02.2025 15:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Well, I'm actually shocked. That Trump has not (yet) said that the Ukrainian language and nation were invented by the Austro-Hungarian General Staff and Ukrainian statehood was invented by Lenin, as Russian propaganda claims. Maybe he's just not up-to-date, but will be after a meeting with Putin.

19.02.2025 10:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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