iphawk

When in doubt people will panic into USD.

Yep. Its all upside down. The market is the economy and confidence. 15%+ down and the economy breaks.

The Public BDC and Homebuilders are getting absolutely pasted the last few weeks.

Trump didnt write that tweet. My guess is Steve.

I guess Trump insiders needed beer money for the rager this weekend. Bought a bunch of 0dte Puts and told weird cousin Steve to tweet out China Tariff nonsense.

Pure panic. Easy out at first. Insane.

She was cooked the second she said there was not a thing she would have done differently.

The easy answer and elephant in the room was Inflation and Border.

Sometimes you just need to eat the Ls.

I hit the limit and just move to a different tool. There is no real switching friction.

The Z skill thing (and problem solving) was shocking. I am sure there are some very awesome Zs, but man I don't know what happened.

I would consider myself an early adopter & borderline power user. I worry there is a small band of old Millennials / young X'ers who navigated the Analog to Digital transition who would pay the money. Booms can't Print PDF / Zs skills are pretty mid even with growing up online.

The TAM is broken.

I agree. Gold / Dollar screaming that full stim in '26 esp parts of BBB starting to kick in.

Right now AI, doesn't pencil and other than a handful of use cases (kind of mid) solution in search of problems to fix.

Claude says in order to earn a 20% ROIC, ALL US Int users need to pay $100 per month.

Not just economy, I would argue over the entire government at all levels.

Don't fight the Fed has turned into don't fight the Big Tech AI Machine + Don't fight the Fed interest rate cut cycle.

The agreements & deals are all silly, but its impossible fighting 10+ Trillion of market cap companies with what seems like never ending CAPEX $$$.

We will all know when its over.

"Look, the President clearly has some kind of dementia" should be how Democrats begin every single comment to reporters these days.

Anything but NO, is very very very likely Yes.

Its easy.

Market might be figuring out that all of the AI spend doesn't pencil right for a return on investment.

Significantly underperforming for 18+ months usually makes people ultra crazy.

A crackpot, but makes pretty good points and clearly communicates what we are all seeing.

An AI Addendum Last month, I chose to strip away all the hubris around AI and ask one simple question, one that oddly no one had really bothered to ask; how much revenue is needed to justify the current level of cap...

Pretty good article on AI from Kuppy. I share similar sentiments.

pracap.com/an-ai-addend...

Lock him up. 5 years.

Ian was reading our conversation yesterday.

An Active equal weight ETF strategy fading this theme would be fun.

I don't have an actionable opinion. Just something that is jumping off my screens, especially as I am looking through various Interval/Tender private strategies.

Last few weeks of trading. Also tricolor then First Brands.

Im worried there are a lot more brewing.

I am a Claude / Perplexity guy. Something better comed along i will adopt it in 5 minutes.

I have doubts if any of the patents are even enforceable due to 101 issues and if they were would take a half decade to get resolved in courts.

Meanwhile its being valued TAM is infinity with margins over 50% growing 20%+ per year for 30+ years.

Scoreboard short term so far says I'm wrong. I think i will be very right eventually. Appreciate your posts.

Likely to be bust 2.0 jnpr, csco, sun with a bunch of global crossings sprinkled in.

There will be a handful of existing / new entrants that figure out how to use AI for specific use cases but to your point I don't see how it scales to masses.

The # of people using AI that generates profits is low

Awesome use cases that are expected to generate hundreds of billions in new revenue and profits...

The second they paywall the programs its mostly over.

The irony of doing more socialism for the people who voted for the antisocialism candidate. Again.

The trading in the large publicly traded private equity and private credit players over the last 2 weeks or so is really bad.

Charts of BX, KKR, ARES, OWL are telling me there is a lot of smoke under the surface of the market.

I believe QCOM is one of the next to rerate. At the middle of a lot of the themes taking AI training to actual physical/digital real world uses.

Data transmission, autonomous driving, robotics etc etc.

Vote with your wallet. Yell at your congress rep to stop sending so much blue money to red States.

Money fixes everything.