iphawk

ISM Services PMI in an hour. Watch out below if it misses.

I have been the fixed income man lately.

I made a mental note to think about raising more cash.

I made it 3 minutes. Unwatchable.

Trump going on a deranged rant on CNBC. Brain is cooked.

Finally, a united nation.

Pretty Good $PLTR numbers, but worried how much is priced in. I could easily see $200 or $100 from here.

Instead of going to the hospital, these people should take some Ivermectin.

I was there a few weeks ago for a RIA roundtable meeting and floor tour. I told my wife the "specialists" looked like babysitters as the computers did all of the work.

I like this take.

I do the exact opposite of her. Phone on silent. I will check it for a few seconds. I get 3 hours a day with my kids and I am going to spend every minute fully engaged with them.

Futures should be interesting.

Wall Street is undefeated creating a complex financial product that will underperform while they collect 75bps plus. Its just in an etf wrapper now.

Cash or as I wrote this week the belly of the curve was looking attractive. Etf I picked was up nearly 1% friday. Expense ratio .03%.

They are marketed and pushed to people who want long exposure and do not understand how the etfs actually work and will unlikely hold through the full outcome period.

The majority are super mid and a recipe to underperform.

Here is my take on the buffer or defined outcome products.

They are wishy washy and will underperform in most scenarios. Clients pay my firm to not be wishy wishy and find actionable portfolio changes.

If we believe stocks are over valued or going to pullback we can trim & move to 4% MM or FI.

My favorite conspiracy: Elon = Satoshi. Elon created bitcoin to help fund Tesla at the time. He went on a K bender and lost wallet access. The plan was to rug bitcoin and move the proceeds into Tesla.

Its very embarrassing for Elon to invent Bitcoin, lose the wallet and not have access to $110B.

Being long bitcoin in an etf seems like a really dumb counterintuitive thing.

No problem!

Total return and after tax total returns.

Market drops which they help protect against but the rally is limited by selling the covered calls. The equity side can never catch up.

Look at xyld. 10% yield, nice. Ytd total return negative 1.84%. Bad.

Brown: Brad Edwards deposed Epstein’s accountant—she worked for Epstein’s modeling company

She gave more detail than we had heard before, including the fact that when Epstein formed that company, he told her he wanted it to be set up just like Trump’s modeling agency.

I avoid all of the leveraged single stock stuff. The option etf total returns are bad.

There are a handful of active strategies that actually do crush it and following/riding the allocation changes has added some extra juice.

EM bonds local currency. 12% total return ytd.

finance.yahoo.com/quote/EMLC/

Emerging Market

Int and EM stocks go even higher.

There are EM debt funds outperforming SPY year to date.

Its nice being an Eagles fan. Jeff just let's Howie cook and we laugh at the rest of the division.

Washington has turned a corner almost instantly after 3 decades of Snyder.

Trump letting Navarro out of the dungeon is a sign things are pretty bad.

First half of 2025 there have been over 1300 new ETF launches.

Everyone trying to get fees.

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

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