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Crazy story: A bank analyst published a report showing Kalshi users lose money even faster than sports gamblers, so Kalshi first tried to pressure the data provider to change their data and then accused them and the analyst of conspiring to extort them when that doesn’t work.

Must be a moment in the future where people look back on this and wonder how things were allowed to get this unserious (again).

10 Weekend Reads:

-23 Ways You’re Already Living in the Chinese Century
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-By All Measures
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ritholtz.com/2026/01/10-w...

Same price as last week even after the drop. Don't really see what all the fuss is about.

Glad that's settled then. Regardless if you think Kalshi odds have any merit, resorting to ad hominem attacks is childish. Can't defend your point of view like an adult.

How is it structurally flawed in an obvious way? If that's the case, go and become a millionaire. Flaws can be arbed on Kalshi.

I think, because there is money on the line, those that engage with Kalshi will reflect whatever information they can get their hands on it in the odds. Kalshi is not a survey.

A betting website is fascist?

Don't you think polling information is reflected in the Kalshi odds? The beautiful thing about Kalshi, if you truly feel the crowd has got it wrong, you can arb it all away and make good money. That in itself keeps the Kalshi odds fair and unbiased,assuming necessarily information is known to public

Do you have a better way of tapping into the wisdom of the crowd right at this point in time? Kalshi is a fair approximation as the fact there is money on the line makes it more honest and unbiased. The only real argument for not using it would be very illiquid markets with low participation.

I'd say Trump trying to make the industry his own has scared a lot of people away.

An asset that derives its value from faith has to be apolitical.

Anton Vorobets (@antonvorobets) I really look forward to presenting at CQF Institute’s Portfolio Management in Quant Finance conference. I will share some very interesting new results, so this is a unique opportunity to be among th...

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It will hit that by end of week at this rate

Never underestimate the EU's ability to self sabotage

Add to that, the government becoming a shareholder in several high profile companies.

This will continue until the markets push back.

Now express it in USD terms

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I remain surprised how few serious people are taking the logical implications seriously

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Bluesky is nog enorm jong. Een jaar geleden had het amper gebruikers.

Momenteel vooral niche groepen die beetje doen denken aan de begin periods van Twitter.

Pretty dull. A rock would win from human innovation.

$SPX up 7 mo in a row. N=16 since 1950. All closed higher within 5 mo. 1980 rose 8 mo in a row and then it was straight downhill until 1982. From Subutrade

If the market closed right now, the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) would finish at 7. Perking up, but not yet at the 10+ level I look for as a strong indication of a bounce. Lots of CBI research here: quantifiableedges.com/category/cbi/ $SPX $SPY #CBI

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You don't act this way unless you plan to be in power for a long time and are unbothered by any consequences. Still waiting for him to declare martial law for some ballooney reason.

Tarrifs can be used as leverage to get things done, especially from surplus driven economies. China being one of them. Part of this cost is paid by consumer, part by importer, or things are sourced elsewhere completely.
I still stand by this and never claimed otherwise. Drama queen.

I do not have to teach anything. You are getting your panties all wound up because I merely stated tarrifs are paid by consumers AND importers. They're used as trade leverage by Trump. Trade routes will adapt.

I don't necessarily agree with them, especially when used on allies, but it is what it is

Nobody will know how it will play out, but your eagerness to buy goods from a country that is openly supporting dictatorships and using unfair (subsidized) trade practices is remarkable. Is this about China or just Trump?

You caught me making a spelling mistake. Good on you.

Of course he backs down. Did you at any point really think Americans would be paying a 500% tarrif?

China can source elsewhere, but so should the West. China's days of dumping subsidized goods on the West are coming to an end. Free trade for surplus countries is not a right but a privilege.

What do I even say? Constant ad hominem attacks because you think you have it all figured out. Quite sad really. Your life must be hell ever since Trump got elected. Everything the old man spits out is enough to upset your fragile personality.

Some is past on to the consumer, some is eaten by the importers.

Tarrifs aren't great for global trade, but global trade is about more than just getting everything at the lowest price possible.

Stop getting lost in bold headlines. It's Trump...