Team HERMES

Dimon's been a naughty boy! Russia is the world's bitch and he should remember that you don't paint a turd brown!

Pour ceux qui aiment le fan-fiction en français, l'un de nous essaya avec Harry Potter (le traduction seul). Nous espèrons que vous en vont jouir. archiveofourown.org/works/680034...

We love to drink with Dima, 'cause Dima is our mate, and when it comes to drinking, he gets it down in eight! SEVEN! SIX! FIVE! FOUR! THREE! TWO! ONE! CUL SEC!

Trump is selfish at root and we actively caution against believing that his change of heart will 'stick'. His *motivations* haven't changed. What's changed is he wants *money* and is willing to sell weapons to get money.

It is not Trump we believe; it is Zelensky (and even him, not completely). Rhetorical is one thing (that's what the talk of 'sanctions' is about—blowing smoke up pro-Ukrainian voters' arses while doing nothing), *military* is another. There's only one way to spin 'hit Moscow'.

When a man asks you to "hit Moscow and maybe St Petersburg", you don't question his motivation. You nod, grin, salute, and say "fuck yes, now give me the ammo". Alibis and excuses don't hit military targets. JASSMs and ATACMSes (along with the odd Tomahawk or two) hit military targets.

If Trump dies and Vance becomes President, we're fucked. Not fine—fucked.

There was a conversation in which Trump outright asked Zelensky to "hit Moscow and maybe St Petersburg, make them feel the pain" and Zelensky gladly agreed to this "but we do need to have the weapons". This is not escalation management or lies.

Weapons are weapons. No matter whence they come.

While no immediate political consequences are anticipated, it is important to acknowledge the mounting sense of disillusionment with the protracted and increasingly costly nature of the war—and with the wider domestic consequences it continues to generate.

It is not a question of whether such a deal was ever genuinely possible (in my view, it was not), but rather a matter of prevailing sentiment—a belief that there was a moment of opportunity, ultimately squandered due to Putin’s obstinacy and irrationality.

All this may appear predictable and unremarkable. What is noteworthy, however, is the growing number of individuals within the Russian elite who believe that Putin has missed an opportunity to reach an agreement with Trump.

giving way to a more pragmatic approach that includes applying pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. Simultaneously, Putin remains prepared for any form of escalation, including nuclear, should Western military assistance threaten to undermine Russia’s strategic advantage.

align with his position simultaneously—paradoxical as that may seem. He will continue to keep the door open for Trump to return to a path of “normalisation”, regardless of the current deterioration in relations. He will persist in the hope that Trump’s present hostility will subside,...

of the current shift, viewing it as transient. The third school, represented by figures such as Margarita Simonyan, adopts a more hawkish stance. It openly warns that this trajectory may lead to nuclear conflict. Concerning Putin, all three perspectives...

Once it becomes evident that such pressure is ineffective—expected to be soon—Trump is likely to revert to a diplomatic course, including exerting pressure on Ukraine to reach a compromise. This school of thought, prominent among Russian foreign policy analysts, downplays the significance...

According to this interpretation, Trump is not undergoing a “Bidenisation” of his policy, nor is Washington reverting to the doctrine of seeking Russia’s “strategic defeat”. Rather, it is viewed as a manoeuvre designed to increase pressure on Putin and test whether this approach yields results.

The second school regards the current developments as a temporary, tactical, and ultimately reversible deviation in Trump’s behaviour—consistent with his typical conflict-management style, which involves pressuring adversaries to yield.

Kirill Dmitriev exemplifies this view. Despite the evident fact that Trump is increasingly exasperated with Putin’s conduct, Dmitriev continues to advocate for the usual rhetoric of mutually beneficial cooperation.

alter Putin’s strategy of coercing Kyiv into capitulation by any available means. The first school argues that, regardless of current tensions, Trump remains a friend of Russia, and that efforts to persuade him of the necessity of normalisation between great powers should continue.

Among the anticipated developments are new sanctions, the seizure of frozen Russian assets, the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, and a possible agreement with European countries to fund these purchases. Despite their differences, all three schools agree that none of these developments will...

Everyone is impatiently awaiting Donald Trump’s announcement of a “major statement” on Russia, expected within hours. In Russia, three main schools of thought can be observed regarding how to interpret the apparent shift in Trump’s policy. 🧶

Trying to make everyone happy will result in everyone being miserable and the continuation of hostilities.

Despite Trump's recent tough talk, he still seems to believe that the war can be ended through a negotiated settlement. It can't. With all that has transpired there is no win-win deal to be had. One side must win and the other must lose.

2.) Viciously enforce sanctions (especially against third parties doing business with Russia) with the intention of driving it into bankruptcy, thereby depriving it of the ability to wage war irrespective of its willingness to do so.

The formula for defeating Putin is simple:

1.) Provide Ukraine with weapons of a quality and in a quantity that ensures it has a clear battlefield advantage; and...

Excellent article. Heavily suggest google-translating it.

Re his Russia announcement on Monday (sanctions?), Trump said: “We’re gonna see what we will see tomorrow. I am very disappointed with President Putin. I thought he was somebody that meant what he said. And he'll talk so beautifully and then he'll bomb people at night. We don't like that."

Trump on Ukraine aid: “I'm gonna have a meeting with the NATO SecGen, who's coming in tomorrow. But we basically are going to send them various pieces of very sophisticated military and they're gonna pay us 100% for them”

Trump on Putin: “He talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening, but there's a little bit of a problem there. I don't like it.”