Reconstructionist

And I really don't know if we're that lucky, but like I hope we are. Ann Wagner and Mike Turner Delenda Est.

I think a really key indicator for everything is if suburban swings start happening in Midwestern and Southern suburbs that haven't seen much movement

But I think Amerimaidan is much more likely than a failstate

I do think another J6/Yoon coup is a legit risk but I also think the government is likely to be at Bush 09 levels of unpopularity by the time we get to that breaking point

Yeah i think we see turn out drop and cut down margins a bit in rurals. GOP in the short term is facing a cataclysmic wombo combo of rural raw totals/margins dropping, suburbs marching left, and *hard* urban minority regression

What I'm talking about is every suburb from Milwaukee to Fort Worth voting like Cobb, the same way rurals from the driftless to the panhandle vote the same nowadays

Yeah but big tricky thing is *which* suburbs, I do think TN-07 could be a blinking light for the GOP is suburban turnout is high and blue, because their advantage is mostly underwritten by modest blue/modest red mid-tier cities/suburbs

Another way of putting this is Democrats are having a rough time with nationally homogeneous rurals and regionally varied advantage in suburbs, but the GOP is straight up dead if they lose suburbs even half as uniformly as democrats lose rurals

Also imo the Reagan revolution, it's very similar where the creation/expansion of suburban white communities built the Reagan majority, not any one candidate—and that is kinda the reverse of the process that's going on now

In a national polarization electoral arms race, republicans have an advantage because they've nationally polarized rurals first, those same processes are working the opposite direction in suburbs (at regionally differential rates) but imo it's only a matter of time before they start cracking

I mean yeah that is how electorates change most of the time. The suburbs who've gotten blue the fastest are ones with new and integrated communities but even not particularly new/integrated ones have been slipping left slowly but surely

The GOP has held an undue balance of power because they cleaned up formerly contested rurals while not losing enough ground in suburbs to fully knock them out, but now they are maxing out rurals and have *lots* of ground to fall in suburbs (and their recent urban gains are very likely DOA)

Dawg look what has happened to Georgia!

And some of this will be active voters changing preferences, some will be activating new voters, and some will be active voters deactivating

The good ending, as I've said repeatedly, is basically a woke 4th party system where the GOP is reduced to the rurals and exurbs (their solid south) and is firmly locked out of power national because they get blown out in the suburbs and cities

I think it you're massively discounting the electorate changing their preferences

The dodgiest part of this is we're more or less banking on republicans negative polarizing a critical mass of the electorate against them instead of relying on any institutional capacity to socialize new reliably partisan, but it uh does seem like they're doing exactly that

I don't think Stephen Miller will run for the president, but yeah if we're stuck in the thermostatic enshitification ratchet, we're fucked but I don't think we necessarily are

Eh the breakdown of the new deal coalition predates Reagan, it was more imo a function of suburbanization, white flight, and Republican service party model overmatching degrading democratic urban machine politics

They sent USAREUR and not SACEUR...?

What

I think a genuine realignment of electorate preferences is much more likely than a failstate

I don't think that's necessarily true

Wtf is a service secretary doin there

he hangs out in group chats with teenaged nazis, so there’s that

Inshallah we get dem dominant 7th party system

Yeah I think this is kinda close to how things end up panning out, that or no one really ever takes up the crown again. The outcome is more or less downstream of the US electorate

Geopolitics is complicated.

christ