Letters2AJ

Here’s to a lot less bunting in 2026. 🍾

Expected Value And Risk Aversion

New article: Expected Value

-Baseball’s new win conditions

-IKF and baseball orthodoxy

-The Default State

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The Upper Bound How Good Is the Best Version of the Padres?

New Article: The Upper Bound

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-The Padres have not fielded the best version of themselves. Until now.

Margin Call Part 4 Take The Right Club Out Of The Bag

New Article: Margin Call Part 4

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Margin Call Part 3 Pitching to the Park

New Article: Margin Call Part 3 - Playing To The Park

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-Signs the Padres are emphasizing a more sophisticated pitch mix strategy

-What they can control in a worst case scenario

Margin Call Part 2 Lineup Optimization

New Article: Margin Call Part 2 - Lineup Optimization

-A shift in the win formula

-How impactful is lineup optimization?

-Making the pieces fit

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This is great work - as always - but i humbly propose my guy Archie could've saved some math time by looking at this scientific chart i posted in our Padres Hot Tub discord a few months ago.

Weekend Recap: SDFC shows up, Padres don't It was a good weekend for one of San Diego's teams, but another one faces an existential crisis.

Tuesday Pod!

-Padres are going through some things. Hit the gas or throttle back?

-SDFC steals the show from Son / LAFC; Can Dreyer win MVP?

Weekend Recaps are always 🔓. Today’s @section1904.com:

Margin Call Part 1 Small Ball

New Article: Margin Call Part 1 - Small Ball

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-The best time to purge a small win-probability drag is the start of a long season. The next best time is now.

Three reasons 😎

Home Field Advantage Strategic Decision Making

New Article: Home Field Advantage

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-Luis Arraez and lineup optimization

-Now it's a sprint

-What home field advantage means
#ForTheFaithful #Padres

Pressing Questions And Pressing Concerns

New Article: Pressing Questions

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-Is the lineup optimized?

-Is the use of an opener a one-off?

-How close was the Dodgers series?
#Padres

The Formula Watching The Pieces Fit

New Article: The Formula

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-How the pieces fit

-New strategies, and old

-Close-quarters combat
#Padres

New Article: First Impressions

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-New arms, new lineup, new strategies

-Cease, fire

-Farewell Strandy, gone but not forgotten
#Padres

Always love when I get to spend an hour-plus talking #Padres with @letters2aj.bsky.social

All In Now It's A Dogfight

New Article: All In

-The reinforcements that arrived after the trade deadline finally detonated

-The Trade That Didn't Happen

-The Way Home
#ForTheFaithful  #Padres

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The Other TTO Failure Modes Of The One-Two Punch

New Article: The Other TTO

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-What to make of Dylan Cease's dreadful ERA?

-Compounding effects of an extreme pitching style

-Simplifying the guessing game

Adjustments Full Tilt

New Article: Adjustments

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-An interesting trend in opposing starting pitcher stuff+

-An approach change from Luis Arraez?
#Padres

Degree Of Difficulty Teams Are Not Monolithic

New Article: Degree Of Difficulty

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-Analyzing the Padres record against over-and-under .500 teams

-Roster analysis as the trade deadline looms

-Chipping away at understanding the unprecedented slumps from the team's top hitters
#Padres

Gwynntelligence Podcast – Episode 157 – Buy or Die Podcast Episode · Gwynntelligence Podcast · 07/03/2025 · 1 sec

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Market Analysis Part 1

New Article: Market Analysis Part 1

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-A look at the trade market dynamics surrounding the Padres top need

-A surprisingly optimistic forecast of a popular acquisition target

-AJ Preller and the high-ceiling siren song
#Padres

Halfway Home Beyond Surviving

New Article: Halfway Home

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-Forecasting the most efficient path to improvement

-A look at Petco Park hitting, and the strategy it implies

I think Niebla is the best pitching coach in game, or second to Caleb Cotham, definitely on Rushmore of the moment

We also said we would -love- to be wrong. Still hoping we were.

Luis slowly closes the door behind him and goes to sit down. Mike looks nauseous. Boyz II Men sing End of the Road softly from a Bluetooth speaker that looks like a baseball.

“Cuz…”

Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0 Unicorn Edition

New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0, Unicorn Edition

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-A deep look beyond the box score into what has been Luis Arraez' worst stretch as a hitter

-The downstream costs of poor offense

Anatomy Of A Slump 2.0

New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 2.0

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-Examining the worst month of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career
-Staring into the void in left field
-Future value vs present value
#Padres

How did the #Padres fix Gavin Sheets? Searching for something that can explain the breakout hitting of #Padres DH Gavin Sheets

How did the #Padres fix Gavin Sheets?

Representative Sample Signal In The Noise

New Article: Representative Sample

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-Further exploration of the Padres power outage

-A thought experiment involving Victor Rodriguez

-Why we actually need an injury translator

Hearing through my sources that Michael King might be sent down to Molokai