Being Exponential | Luke Lango

Traders going all-in on rate cut bets.

Rate sensitive small caps #RTY #IWM breaking out. Small caps have been stuck in neutral for 5 years. $240 is the resistance level for IWM. A break and hold above that would be a BIG deal.

#U took out $30, which was resistance throughout 24 and 1H25. 50/100/200-day MAs all sloping higher. 200-day MA has best positive slope ever.

This looks like a real deal breakout with strong fundamentals to support the rally.

Watch #U here.

It's a sleeper AI pick with huge potential as AI & AR/VR merge in the era of Physical AI. Their 3D rendering engine could be the new OS for physical AI devices.

Long-term fundamental bull thesis is promising + short-term technical picture is rapidly improving. 🔽

performance of the s&p 500 index (spx) during the last four major federal reserve rate cut cycles, excluding the covid-19 period. each line represents spx returns normalized to the start of the respective cycle. data as of aug 13, 2025 shows the current cycle (white) up +14.89%, compared to past cycles: 2007–2003 (-29.89%, red), 2001–1996 (-30.02%, dark red), 1998–1994 (+39.01%, light green), and 1995–1990 (+65.51%, dark green). source: bloomberg finance l.p., normalized as of sept 18, 2024.

During rate cut cycles, $SPX either crashes or soars, based on macro conditions

Good macros lead to stock surges (1995 & 1998)

Bad macros result in crashes (2001 & 2007)

Current macros = good, so stocks are following the 1995/1998 upward trend, suggesting more upside ahead...

Boosted rev, margin, & EPS guide from #MU speaks to the durability of the AI capex supercycle.

It isn't going to slow anytime soon. AI infrastructure stocks benefitting from that supercycle - like MU - will stay hot.

A data table titled “U.S. Inflation Velocity Tracker.” The table has five columns: Month, CPI (%), Change, Core CPI (%), Change, and “Both Falling?” Each row shows the month, the current CPI and Core CPI values, the month-over-month change for each, and a Yes/No flag indicating whether both CPI and Core CPI declined that month.

CPI inflation & and core CPI haven't fallen since April. August won't provide much of a reprieve.

But with the Fed Funds rate >1.5 points above CPI &the weakest labor market growth in 15 years (excluding Covid), a September rate cut is likely. Good news for stocks, especially AI

Mic drop quarter for $SE

Sea is successfully defending its home turf in SE Asia against competition.

E-comm revs +34%, Fintech +70%, Total revs +38% (best since early 2022). EBITDA margins up 11 points, EBITDA +85%. Big growth, trading at just 23X fwd EBITDA. Attractive setup.

Bar chart showing the RAY Index (Russell 3000) weekly from AUG 2015 to 11 AUG 2025. The index closed at 3615.873, with only 48.09 % of its members trading above their 200-day moving average—indicating narrow market breadth.

The full stock market (Russell 3000) is within 1% of ATHs. But less than 50% of Russell 3000 stocks are above their 200D MAs. The only historical precedent for this is 1999/00, and it happened a lot during those two years.

So do the highly-specialized ones like #ADSK #IOT #GWRE #VERX #QTWO.

And the more infra-oriented names like #FROG #GTLB #SNOW.

That's probably where you want to be as the AI Application layer splits between disruptors and disrupted.

Some stocks potentially at risk:
-Website builders #GDDY #WIX
-PM software #ASAN #DBX #BOX
-Marketing software #CXM #BRZE
-BI/CRM software #DOMO #HUBS

The big fish in AI enterprise software like #NOW #CRM #PLTR #TEAM #INTU seem defensible.

Risk exposure is mainly with SMB vendors.

Large orgs will likely hesitate to empower employees with GenAI solutions. But for SMBs, it makes a lot of sense.

Entry-level software vendors with many SMB clients face high risk.

We're adjusting our model portfolios accordingly...

The same way that AI is wiping out entry-level jobs, it is now threatening to wipe out entry-level AI software companies.

The disruptors are becoming the disrupted. That's how fast this space is moving.

Why buy pricey AI marketing tools when ChatGPT-5 lets your team do it faster and cheaper?

Why pay for a website builder service when you can just tell Grok-4 what site you want to build and it whips it up for you - at essentially no cost and in minutes?

The most interesting story in AI right now is that the rapid advancement of foundational AI models like ChatGPT-5 and Grok-4 is a huge growth opportunity for some AI application developers...

And a massive risk for some current AI software providers. 🧵

Revenue growth rates, though, won't slow. You'll get >20% revenue growth in 2026+ w/ single-digit expense growth. Margins will expand.

Profit growth will surge to >30%.

#MNDY stock will rebound.

It is working on the topline (Q2 revs +27% / Q3e +25% / Q4e +24%). But its coming at a cost (Q2 profit +17% / Q3e +7% / Q4e -13%).

Investors are worried about the profit growth slowdown. But it won't last. Mgmt said headcount and R&D growth will slow in 26.

Long story short, they recognize the massive opportunity they have to create a truly powerful workflow management software platform with AI that could become an enterprise ubiquity.

They are investing big to make that AI platform.

#MNDY crashing big on light profit guide.

But the light profit guide is b/c mgmt is investing heavy into AI. And I like the call by mgmt to keep investing big into AI.

It'll pay off. Which is why this is a buying opp, in my view. 🧵

This feels like #SBUX back when they had only ~1,000 stores... in 1996... SBUX is +7,250% since then... #BROS could be next!

Where #SBUX is losing, #BROS is winning.

Locations +14% / Comps +6.1% / Revs +28% / EBITDA +37%. Dutch Bros has a way more innovative menu, way more effective advertising, and a way more unique in-store experience (everyone there is so nice!). 🔽

ChatGPT-5 looks legit. Best in class intelligence with super low token usage. Impressive.

Sounds like short-term pain, long-term gain to me. This new storage structure strengthens -- doesn't weaken -- the bull thesis. Still love #SYM as the top warehouse automation play in the market.

So growth rates will take hit over the next few quarters as customers realign timelines to fit to the new storage structure. But growth rates will soar over the next few years as the new storage system creates a bigger backlog, brings in more customers, grows the TAM, etc.

#SYM is crashing because the Q4 guide was miserable.

But the Q4 guide was miserable because of a new tech breakthrough (a new storage structure) that will unlock bigger growth in the long run. 🧵

In this week’s Being Exponential, we tackle the hottest question on everyone’s mind: why has U.S. job growth stalled—are tariffs to blame, or has the AI Jobs... The AI Job Apocalpyse Is Already Here...

🔊 Watch/listen here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Frr...

📺 New #podcast episode has landed:
- Jobs stalled = tariffs or AI Jobs Apocalypse?
- Earnings from #META, #MSFT, #AMZN, #ARM, #HOOD, & more
- #BTC expectations
- SLMs > LLMs
- #PANW buys CyberArk
- #JOBY lands military deal
- Advice for surviving AI disruption

#JOBY stock is down because Q2 losses were wider than expected, but against all those positives... so what? All signs point to Joby beginning a massive eVTOL commercialization ramp in 2026. That ramp should drive the stock higher. My 2 cents.

Big partnerships in Japan and the Middle East. Blade integration seems like it'll happen fast. Manufacturing capacity scaling up to 500 eVTOLs per year with new Dayton facility.

A lot of good stuff in that #JOBY report.

Stage 4 FAA certification almost complete. 76 test flights w/ 4 different aircraft in July. Exploring military apps. 🧵

#NBIS market cap is still just $16B. I really do think this is a $10B+ rev company one day with $5B+ in EBITDA. If so, then Nebius could easily be a $100B+ company one day. I like this one for potentially big long-term gains in AI.