Nick Leach

Climate change and monsoon rainfall in Pakistan - NCAS Researchers have developed a new approach to understand the role of climate change in extreme weather events and humanitarian disasters.

What is forecast-based attribution? And did climate change influence the devastating monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, summer 2022?

Find out from NCAS climate scientists @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social & @nickleach.bsky.social:

ncas.ac.uk/climate-chan...

If a mailing list does get created, I'd be v interested!

Join us @egu.eu for our session on

Physical #ClimateRisk assessment for the #Finance and #Insurance sectors.

Solicited talk: @nickleach.bsky.social

Orals: May 1st | 8:30-10:15 | 2.17🟥

@aceglar.bsky.social @nicolaranger.bsky.social
@janasillmann.bsky.social
@iiasa.ac.at
@lamont.columbia.edu

I'm in Vienna at #EGU25 this week!

Feel free to reach out if you're also here and interested in chatting about:

• Extreme weather risk, impacts and it's attribution
• Climate stress testing in the financial sector
• What it's like to work in between academia and industry
• Anything else!

If you want project specific environments that are built into each project (eg for others to work off afterwards), I've found poetry solves a lot of the headaches conda creates around environment solving. Basically makes the environment part of the project itself and doesn't let you separate the two

Sorry yeah not super clear from me! My thoughts were that given observations have been trending towards La Nina while CMIP models generally trend towards El Nino over the recent past, would this imply that the model-estimated probability might be biased high?

Given ENSO seems necessary for such a jump, would it imply the probability of this kind of jump "should be" (ie. if the models reproduced the observed trend towards La Nina) even lower in climate models than calculated?

Really neat paper! Something I'm wondering after reading - how does the discrepancy between modelled and observed ENSO trends affect the qualitative conclusions?

Do you have a strong background, including a PhD and publication record, in weather and climate dynamics or closely related areas? Would you like to apply your skills in an interdisciplinary research project on weather impacts on health across the globe ?

Global climate highlights here: climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

A group of us from @oxfordphysics.bsky.social reviewed the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social 2024 global climate highlights for @theconversation.com. Link to the highlights in thread.

I did something similar (but less well explained!) a while back and started to separate out the different components (at least into a few more groups: njleach.github.io/2020/12/29/H.... NB. this uses a different constrained FaIR parameter set & was based on emission-driven runs so some differences!

Forced trends and internal variability in climate change projections of extreme European windstorm frequency and severity This study provides an assessment of changes to European windstorm severity and frequency in a warming climate. The results show increases in storm average and aggregate severity for western Europe, ....

The UK windstorm season 2024/25 has seen a fairly active start (Bert, Darragh).

In the future we expect these storms to be more frequent and intense, but by how much?

Well in a new paper, we've tried to answer this...

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

What is driving the rate of global warming (2010-2019)?
* CO2 is by far the dominant factor
* CH4 is next on the list
* Then aerosols, though uncertain value

Aerosols are important, but remember the real enemy is CO2!

njleach.github.io/2020/12/29/H...

What about acceleration?

1/

fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections Abstract. Simple climate models (also known as emulators) have re-emerged as critical tools for the analysis of climate policy. Emulators are efficient and highly parameterised, where the parameters a...

The model calibration paper for fair is now published in Geoscientific Model Development! 🎉

TLDR: how do we constrain a highly parameterised model to observational and assessed constrained ranges, with uncertainty?

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

Thanks for setting this up, it's a great resource! Keen to be added if space. I'm a climate scientist at a climate risk analytics startup & postdoc at U of Oxford researching extreme weather attribution.

I tried to prepare a starter pack on climate, weather and hydrological extremes. Please let me know if you would like to be added, the more the merrier!
go.bsky.app/86zAwyH

We are excited to announce our #EGU25 session on

'Advances in physical climate risk assessment for the financial and insurance sectors.'

Abstracts:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

@iiasa.ac.at @columbiaclimate.bsky.social @eurogeosciences.bsky.social @nickleach.bsky.social

It was great to chat to @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for this piece! Some really interesting perspectives on where attribution science is heading...