Stu Donovan

At least it gives me an opportunity to make nice graphs

Idk but if you pay me $799 than I can work it out

Two things remain on my to-do list:
1/ Assess how well the model performs at predicting the outcome of previous elections ("out-of-sample" performance); and
2/ Incorporate economic variables, such as unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, into the model.

Note the model accounts for:
- Sampling size ("uncertainty")
- House effects for individual pollsters
- Public versus internal polls
- Trends (by party)

The main findings are (see above figures for eye-candy):
1/ Support for the Government (light blue) and Opposition (rose) blocks is neck-and-neck, as are National (dark blue) and Labour (red); and
2/ Support for the smaller parties is sitting at similar levels to the last general election.

⭐ New Zealand polling update⭐

As we wait on new polling data following the recent budget here in New Zealand, I thought I'd crank the handle on my model that aggregates political polling data and infers the "average" levels of support for individual parties.

Put simply, turbo-charging urban development can complement the provision of infrastructure to rural areas, and vice versa.

I enjoyed writing the post and hope you enjoy reading it. Ka kite! Thanks again to @greaterauckland.bsky.social for facilitating these conversations.

The post finishes by observing how improving infrastructure in New Zealand's remote / rural communities can also deliver tangible value to urban areas, by providing access to obscenely beautiful natural environments. Like Wharariki Beach.

Infrastructure "cross-subsidies" from urban to rural areas are already happening, of course, and have happened for eons. For me, the focus should be on ensuring New Zealand has a sufficiently large and prosperous urban core to sustain these cross-subsidies into the future.

The post discusses how adopting policies to strengthen the urban core, such as upzoning to enable housing, can support remote, rural communities.

How? Well, it spreads the fixed costs of providing infrastructure over more people, reducing costs per person. E.g. the road to Rangiwhakaoma.

Why it takes a city to save a village, and vice versa - Greater Auckland This guest post by Dr Stuart Donovan looks at how strengthening the urban core can turn liabilities into assets. The header image of Rangiwhakaoma is by the author. I recently travelled to the remarka...

After a ten-year hiatus from blogging, the hard-working people at @greaterauckland.bsky.social (Greater Auckland) have kindly agreed to publish some of my rando musings as a guest blog post titled, "Why it takes a city to save a village, and vice versa."
www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2025/05/13/w...

A great LinkedIn post inspired by a talk by @studonovan.bsky.social

“Making the most of our city means allowing more housing where the market wants it to be.”

Home | Motu Promoting well-informed and reasoned debate on public policy issues that matter to New Zealanders.

Fwiw Motu Research is an independent economics and policy research institute based in Wellington, New Zealand.

In our work, we seek to help decision-makers grapple with complex social, environmental, and economic issues.

Put Q's here or send me a message 💪💪💪

More information about us:
www.motu.nz

To apply, please email:
⭐ A cover letter + CV addressing the requirements for the position you are applying for
⭐ Copies of (or links to) three papers you have co-authored
⭐ Contact details for three people who are willing to act as your referee

📧 director@motu.org.nz

Do you have:
❓ a passion for research
❓ a PhD (or, are close to getting one)
❓ the desire to live + work in New Zealand

If you answered ✅ ✅ ✅, then you might want to consider applying for Research Fellow or Senior Fellow positions with us at Motu Research.

More deets:
www.motu.nz/about-us/wor...

Alternatively, if you can't make it along to either of these two events but are keen to catch-up separately, then please send me a message and we can try and set something up.

Auckland 2050 - Building the Future City 2 April 2025 | Property Foundation Our expert panel explored the relevant tech and it’s applications, how to integrate AI into your business and highlighted important legal aspects.

Second, from 5.30-7.30pm I'm contributing to a panel event titled "Auckland 2050: Building the Future City" at the Auckland University of Technology, where I'll be making the case for a bigger and better Auckland.

You can register for this event here:
tpf.org.nz/auckland-205...

Urban policy reforms in New Zealand Where are we now and where might we head next?

First, from 10.30-11.30am I'll be giving a talk on urban policy reforms in New Zealand at the University of Auckland. Notwithstanding a decade of progress, I'm going to make the case for wider and deeper reforms.

You can register for this event here:
www.eventbrite.co.nz/e/urban-poli...

To my dear friends in my beloved Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, New Zealand -- I'm pleased to be visiting your verdant shores on *2 April* for two public events that some of you might be interested in coming along to.

Find links to details + register below.

It'll depend on the context but high land prices supporting higher density development seems intuitive to me. But we might have achieved better outcomes from allowing 4-10 storeys in more places.

Thanks to Matt for his efforts, several people for helpful comments on an earlier draft, my employer Motu for supporting unfunded research, Land Use Policy for publishing what is an unusual paper, and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam for paying the open access fee.

Onwards and upwards!

Main takeaways:
- the evidence suggests upzoning in Auckland led to more supply and lower rents
- these findings hold under plausible assumptions and are very robust to changes in those assumptions
- all available evidence indicates upzoning had large effects

The conclusions sum up where we stand.

🚨 urban economics research siren 🚨

In this recently published (open access) paper in "Land Use Policy", my co-author (Matthew Maltman) and I review critiques of the economic evidence on the effects of upzoning in Auckland.

We find these critiques have little to no merit.
doi.org/10.1016/j.la...

Hi fwiends, I'm pleased to be contributing to a discussion on housing and infrastructure policy that is being organised by the Law and Economics of New Zealand and hosted by KPMG Wellington on 13 February.

Deets and register (in person or online) here:
eventbrite.co.nz/e/pipe-dream...

Exclusionary policies of the past and present: How single-family zoning structures inequality — Atlanta Department of City Planning By Kendra Taylor, Project Manager, Office of Housing and Community Development Racial and economic segregation are so prevalent today that it is easy to assume that segregation arises naturally thro...

"Before [racial zoning] was overturned by a court, Atlanta had an explicitly racist zoning code ... To comply with the court ruling, 'R-1 White Districts' became 'Dwelling House Districts' ... and 'R-2 Colored Districts' became Apartment House districts."
www.atlcitydesign.com/blog/2021/1/...

yes and the response is surprisingly large for a suburban location.

* Credit to the authors Ryan Greenaway and Matthew Maltman as well as all the elected representatives and public servants at Lower Hutt that advanced these ambitious reforms.

And just like in Auckland, the synthetic control method shows rents falling soon after the reforms with the size of the effect growing with time.

Honestly, this is beautiful.

Like Auckland, the paper presents data showing a big spike in housing permits especially for apartments and townhouses.

Going it alone: The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Lower Hutt This paper studies a sequence of zoning reforms enacted in Lower Hutt, a constituent municipality of the wider Wellington metropolitan region of New Z…

🚨urban economics research siren 🚨

A new (open access) paper considers the effects of upzonings in Lower Hutt, New Zealand.

tldr
- housing permits ⬆️ by ~10-18%
- rents ⬇️by ~21% vs counterfactual

These effects are for the metropolitan region.
sciencedirect.com/science/arti...