Orhan Torul @orhantorul - Bluesky Profile

Orhan Torul

@orhantorul.bsky.social

Associate Professor of Economics at Boğaziçi University | Posts in English & Turkish https://orhantorul.com

162 Followers | 100 Following | 6 Posts | Joined: 02.05.2023 | 1.6602

Latest posts by orhantorul.bsky.social on Bluesky

<span>Political Capital: Real-Time Electoral Probabilities and the Value of Corporate Political Alignment</span> We examine how real-time fluctuations in U.S. presidential election probabilities affect stock valuations of firms with distinct partisan affiliations. Using hi

Our findings demonstrate that in an era of heightened polarization, corporate-political alignment represents a significant economic component of stock returns. This provides novel evidence on how electoral uncertainty transmits through financial markets 4/4 Link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

29.04.2025 11:03 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

We analyzed 71 firms using PolyMarket & PredictIt data alongside OpenSecrets contribution records. Our local projection framework revealed a clear "dose-response" relationship - stronger partisan ties = larger stock price effects when electoral odds shifted 3/4

29.04.2025 11:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

When Trump's election probability increased by 1 percentage point, Republican-affiliated firms outperformed Democratic-leaning counterparts by ~0.3%. Effects emerged within hours and persisted for weeks, suggesting markets efficiently price political connections 2/4

29.04.2025 11:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Our new paper with Emrehan Aktuğ examines how real-time changes in 2024 presidential election odds affected stock valuations based on firms' partisan affiliations. We used high-frequency data from prediction markets and corporate political contribution records 🧵 1/4 #econsky #econ

29.04.2025 11:02 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Trabzonspor vs Barcelona: Meet the UEFA Youth League finalists | UEFA Youth League Follow all the latest UEFA Youth League 2024/2025 news from the official UEFA.com site. Includes latest news stories, videos, match reports and much more.

Trabzonspor vs Barcelona ⚽️ Meet the UEFA Youth League finalists 🔴🔵

www.uefa.com/uefayouthlea...

26.04.2025 12:01 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

"Hello, World!"

02.07.2023 10:01 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

@orhantorul is following 20 prominent accounts

@mctckn

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@orhanaygun

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Assist. Prof. of Economic History @gelisimedu - Shipping and Shipbuilding History of (late) Ottoman and (early) Turkey.

Mehmet Mars Seven ♞
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Lecturer @kcl-spe.bsky.social @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social Game Theory, Econ & CS, Pol-Econ, Sport Chess ♟️ Game Theory Corner at Norway Chess Studied in Istanbul -> Paris -> Bielefeld -> Maastricht https://linktr.ee/drmehmetismail Views are my own

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