Peedjster

Clearly a risk that the new CEO does some silly acquisition but he spoke sensibly to this on the call

At the current valuation I would not be surprised to see acquirers get interested or activists get involved to step up the buy backs above all else

What am I missing?

It may mean that the new CEO may have been incentivised to lower guidance and paint a picture of more investment needed when the reality could be much better

In fact other management seemed far more positive than the CEO on the recent analyst call

The cynical take here is around the new CEO incentives. Some very large figures here and $22m seems to have an entry price "in the fall" whatever that means.

Factset $FDS looks interesting here. Market is concerned about AI risk but I'm struggling to see evidence of this and at 15x forward PE it seems very attractive for a ~30%+ margin business with 95% retention.

Found an approx capex breakdown from the annual report. So approx normalised free cash flow of 53m, add back expansionary capex of 67m then deduct the 30m overstatement gets to 90m. On 800m mkt cap, so 11% free cash flow yield. Could be interesting .... especially with the activist on the register

I tried to get my head round the low free cash flow today. Do you have a sense of what their maintenance capex is likely to be (ie excluding new store openings)?

The Greggs' app is interesting. I've not been a regular at Greggs but started recently/got the app as I bought shares. Unlike other cafe/food apps I've used, you pre pay onto the app in "round" £s. Wonder if this is likely to give the company decent float over time as well as the loyalty/data?

I get Fcf in the last few full periods as 15m and 10m ...

Perhaps full year fcf will be a lot stronger. Current half year was c8m.

It has given me reasons to be more cautious

Please correct me. What have I missed?

And stating the obvious, fcf is needed to pay off debt. Not EBITDA.

They have ~85m of interest bearing debt. assuming fcf increases by the same % as adjusted operating profit is guided to grow, they appear on track for ~10m fcf. Which suggests it will take them some time to get the debt down..

#kitw $kitw.ln
I need help understanding the debt situation here. Management don't offer a proper calc of free cashflow (fcf) and in one of the slides seems to mislead free cashflow generation. Working capital has soaked up cashflow in the last several years so fcf is fairly depressed

#wosg $wosg.l
I get this trading on a free cashflow yield of 15% if you adjust for the one off working capital impact linked to suppliers reacting to tariffs which is expected to revert

Seems very attractive given growth initiatives here

Came to a similar conclusion after listening to a few of their investor calls recently. Trying to figure out $KITW.LN currently which has a similar model but much cheaper valuation

Added #gle to my basket of homebuilders (#vty and #btrw) . Announcement today didn't seem overly bad to me and reservation rates are encouraging. At 0.7x tang book it looks attractive over a 3 year view. They have decent embedded margin coming through judging from the last question on the call today

5) menu changes and smart marketing 6) continued growth in evening offer

Started position today and hoping some of these come through

a.storyblok.com/f/162306/x/8...

Hoping for growth from 1) new own store openings 2) maturing of recent store openings (stores go from 20 to 30% ROCE as they mature) 3) efficiency from using up excess capacity from recent distribution centre investments 4) growth in franchising (fastest growing part in LFL terms)

I see you've covered a lot of UK and European distribution cos and hold/held KITW. Mind if I ask how you view things after the recent announcement/falls?

And free cash flow to equity is like 40%, well below historical levels when rates were very low but it shows that their economics still work out very well in this higher rate environment

I get #motr $motr.ln on a 8% fcf yield on today's numbers with good growth ahead of it. Has been a painful ride but management has managed costs well and even managed to do some buy backs. Now resuming growth

I really enjoyed your first book. And my 10 year old loves it too. To have a book that can engage those two audiences is great. Looking forward to reading this new one!

#motr up nearly 15% since it scrapped the 25% adv limit on buy backs...

#Wosg $wosg.l $wosg.ln

Bought this in the last few trading days. Saw in the RNS today that some execs exercised options yesterday at pretty much the day low.

Is this like shooting the arrow and then drawing the target around it? Or is it all legit?

$wise.l $wise.ln #wise
Looking forward to the capital markets day tomorrow. Hoping it won’t be overshadowed by macro news….

Surprised Interactive Brokers isn't referenced. Low cost, low FX rates and good range of non-uk shares covered. If you are low activity but invest in more non-uk shares they are good value. Recently moved to them for my shares ISA.
www.interactivebrokers.co.uk/en/accounts/...

Great results from Sabre, as expected and given recent #ADM results. Market remains very cynical on their outlook but they are delivering. Buy back is a nice touch. They need to prove their growth strategy to get more love from the market

PayPal?

#dom $dom.l
Like for like rev growth improving slowly from a weak position. Clearly suffering in a high cost of living climate but being innovative to deal with challenge. Adjusted eps strong helped by buybacks but they need to continue the rev growth

#sbre $sbre.l Results due on March 18. Share price close to year lows vs #adm $adm.l near year highs. #sbre on a c 7x PE and double digit forward yield. Pricing is tougher but sbre has its niche and will benefit from higher yields

Is Science Group turning into an activist investment trust?!

Lack of detail on the economics of the new plane purchased. Not clear to me why they bought that Vs buying back more shares. Any thoughts?