Max Kagan

Companies are hiring many more internal policy specialists than lobbyists; it is a much larger investment in politics and internal expertise
www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf

Proposal for how to fix family wise error rates.

For every uncorrected p value you must add an extra letter to the claim.

“Eating chocolate maaaaaaaaay be associated with lower rates of stroke”

Talks Between Adams and Trump Adviser Center on Saudi Ambassadorship

New York City is the Riyadh of America

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/n...

Excellent reference for those, like me, who can always benefit from a refresher on statistical power

📢 Thrilled to share our new article introducing CampaignView—a comprehensive open-source dataset of congressional candidate campaign bios and policy platforms (2018–2022). Paper + data here: campaignview.org & doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... 🧵1/4

Wild times for those of us who study corporate sociopolitical activism

It looks like there is already a Stata MCP, for those who might want such a thing

For that matter, right now there are ~700k people per representative and GA has ~1.3m non-citizen residents, so MTG’s own state would likely lose at least one, maybe 2 reps?

Constitutional questions aside, it isn’t clear to me what the net partisan electoral effect would be? CA and NY would presumably lose representatives (and thus electors), but so would FL and TX?

Much of my recent research has been thinking critically about whether it is always reasonable to use public campaign finance records as a good way to understand corporate executives' political ideology. So it is pretty striking to see someone "saying the quiet part out loud!"

In the political literature this is known as donating for access. It’s very common. Campaign donations should be interpreted as strategic manifestations of political goals, not expressions of true preference.

🙃

Going to #AOM2025 and working on #nonmarket strategy or know someone who is? Join our PDW on Research Frontiers in Nonmarket Strategy — now in its 8th year!

🗓️ Sat, July 26 | 11:00AM–1:30PM
📍 Bella Center, Auditorium 12
📝 Pre-register by ***July 1***: umdsurvey.umd.edu/jfe/form/SV_...

Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods By Cory McCartan, New York University, Jacob R. Brown, Boston University and Kosuke Imai, Harvard University Granular geographic data present new opportunities to understand how neighborhoods are formed, and how they influence politics. At the same time, the inherent subjectivity of neighborhoods creates methodological challenges in measuring and modeling them. We develop an open-source survey instrument that allows respondents to draw their neighborhoods on a map.

Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods

Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods By Cory McCartan, New York University, Jacob R. Brown, Boston University and Kosuke Imai, Harvard University Granular geographic data present new opportunities to understand how neighborhoods are formed, and how they…

📄 @fgilardi.bsky.social created this template for writing abstracts several years ago, and I’ve tried to follow Fabrizio‘s suggestions ever since.

PDF: fabriziogilardi.org/resources/pa...

Not all Trump voters "voted for this" Trump’s policy agenda is very unpopular, including with many of his supporters. To win the next election, Democrats need to welcome regretful Trump voters back onto their side

Americans who report paying “a lot of attention” to news (everyone on this platform) are (a) in the minority of voters and (b) very, very prone to assuming the other side of the aisle is all extremists. This is counterproductive to broader party efforts at persuasion. I have sources:

🧵

Most people consume less than 1 hour of news per day (Pew). The result of this is that they are simply not or are ill/mis-informed, and do not have hard preferences on policy or parties. About 15-20% of voters can correctly identify positions as belonging to the left or right (Kinder and Kalmoe, 17)

I don’t know the authors at all, but I do wonder if having an American (or US-based) author with more familiarity with the local context might have helped to raise this? Of course it’s probably far more common for the shoe to be on the other foot with US researchers unfamiliar with local context

Seems like a job for @johnholbein1.bsky.social himself!

Some of us have been saying this for years.

I could imagine one using the same draft design and looking at something like church attendance records over time (e.g., from the LDS member rolls) rather than the headstones only

Could be a good mechanism test, but then you're back to dealing with selection problem of enlistment... and it seems highly likely that people who voluntarily enlist would be more religious to begin with

From VA Form 40-1330, available here:

www.cem.va.gov/hmm/#:~:text...

The religious marker is optional but available at no additional charge.

One simple check: it seems like military headstones must include service details (i.e., branch, rank). Presumably one could exclude these.

I remember when this was posted on the other site, my concern was that veterans can get free tombstones (with a free religious icon), whereas non-veterans’ families would have to pay more to include a religious icon.

You can read the column for free?

After years of doubt, drafts, and disbelief, my first—and likely last—book is finally out. It’s about how entertainment shapes American politics. If you preorder (a.co/d/ctGUWkZ), I’d love to send a small token of thanks: forms.gle/1YrkYX2t2nPC...

I actually think this could be an area where public research is good and useful? Presumably firms have an incentive to figure this out on their own privately, but if you publish on this, then society knows what to watch out for and can make the case for investments in regulatory enforcement

political science is actually pretty good on this front relative to a lot of other disciplines!

I don't claim any unique philosophical insight (other than that Weber's "Science as a Vocation" remains a great read 100 years on), but one specific study to which you allude involves analysis of public data which are already out there for anyone with the time and inclination.

... and as you note, we don't/can't cover people who aren't registered to vote, which includes noncitizens, felons, etc. Our view is that while there are important limitations to bear in mind, this method is still leaps & bounds ahead of just using campaign donors to look at overall employees