Jamil Civitarese

[“Fantasy is escapist, and that is its glory. If a soldier is imprisoned by the enemy, don’t we consider it his duty to escape? The moneylenders, the know-nothings, the authoritarians have us all in prison; if we value the freedom of the mind and soul, if we’re partisans of liberty, then it’s our plain duty to escape, and to take as many people with us as we can.”]

Ursula le Guin, on the accusation that fantasy is an escape from reality

In modern history, what is the least popular that party leaders have ever been to their OWN voters? Second place was the GOP in 2009, where their net approval with Republican voters was only +6.

Currently Dems are -8, shattering all previous records.

New (open access) publication with @philipp-kerler.bsky.social. We draw on fieldwork to build a theoretical model that outlines the conditions when the expectation of clientelism can drive selective political engagement, something we call asymmetric participation. #distributivepolitics #clientelism

While Democracy Burns, Democrats Prioritize… Demolishing Section 230? While an unelected tech billionaire is effectively orchestrating a coup of the US government, violating federal law with apparent impunity, and disclaiming all responsibility for the chaos he&#8217…

I wrote about how particularly ridiculous it is that Senate Democrats, led by Dick Durbin, think the priority should be repealing Section 230 and undermining the very open internet we need more than ever right now. www.techdirt.com/2025/02/21/w...

We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R.
yiqingxu.org/packages/fec...

Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.

As instituições vão colapsar em breve? Talvez. Não agora, diferente de certo país……..

Trump is making false claims about Zelensky's popularity, say experts US President Donald Trump has once again echoed Kremlin talking points, by falsely claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s approval rating stands at a mere 4%. In reality, polling by ex...

Make this @OfficialUoM press release viral
“Trump … echoed Kremlin talking points, by falsely claiming …Zelensky’s approval rating stands at a mere 4%…polling…puts his approval rating at 63% - making him the most popular politician in the country.”
www.manchester.ac.uk/about/news/t...

BJPolS abstract discussing the impact of human rights trials on public confidence and institutional justice, focusing on Argentina after the military dictatorship of 1976-1983.

NEW -

Fixing the Past: The Effects of Human Rights Trials on Political Attitudes in Argentina - cup.org/4gL8hlN

- @pearceaedwards.bsky.social, Jennifer Gandhi & Donald Grasse

#OpenAccess

President Javier Milei blames the people who fell for the crypto scam, saying that "I didn't promote it, just shared it".

Our new paper is out! In Brazil, election-driven family conflicts are rare, but affect LGB voters disproportionately. LGB voters’ heightened political engagement and strong opposition to Bolsonaro seem to underpin their greater propensity to face election-driven family conflicts.

Aconteceu comigo recentemente, horrível.

Eu quando voto no PT

Critical support to El Presidente as he picks the pockets of the stupidest Silicon Valley venture capitalists with the oldest crypto scam in the book. Historically progressive

These are the vaccination rates of kindergartners by state. It takes 95% coverage of MMR vaccine to prevent measles outbreaks & most states are not achieving it. I fear that under the new administration rates will drop even further and we will start to see preventable illness, disability, and death

I am fine, but I want to declare today was the first (possibly not the last) time I suffered xenophobia in the US. If the government wants to enable the worst of people, fine. I’ll do whatever I can just to finish my PhD and go to a country that still cares about civics and dignity. What a hellhole.

🚨New working paper alert 🚨: In a model, I show that automation can increase political mobilization from workers and distributive conflict, but that this may not necessarily lead to lower levels of inequality unless the labor share is high. cfbalcazar.github.io/files/pdf/re...

🧵 Knowing which questions to ask is one of the most critical aspects of survey design, but we often rely on guesswork to devise questionnaires. What if we were to rely directly on participants?

Elon Fatorelli não tava no meu bingo.

one thing I am moderately confident on now is that China is the leading global scientific power by 2030.

🚨FREE BOOK ALERT! Download "Gendered Jobs and Local Leaders: Women, Work, and the Pipeline to Local Political Office" by two of my favorite authors: @mirya.bsky.social & @rivb.bsky.social. Rich data showing occupational gendered segregation is a powerful source of 🚺's political underrepresentation.

Here's my new working paper w/ Aaron Kaufman & Chris Celaya.

Focusing on race and class, we argue that quant studies of inequality, discrimination, etc across identity groups should use the estimand that reflects its underlying theory of identity development

ungated www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ophfv...

The point is that Milei seems to be a legit politician. While we can debate whether or not the guy is a populist or good or bad or wtv, he seems to be a true believer with a plan. Elon Musk acts as if he was commanded by a foreign autocratic power.

Ela não te ama.

“Torrenting from a corporate laptop doesn’t feel right”: Meta emails unsealed Meta’s alleged torrenting and seeding of pirated books complicates copyright case.

Aaron Swartz, whose throwaway projects brought more value to the world than FB ever did, was a tech prodigy who killed himself because he was facing 35 yrs in prison for downloading academic articles from an academic institution. Zuck stole far more and did so for profit. What charges will he face?

New at Political Research Quarterly: Our latest study analyzing Latino political engagement & activity on social media, from Marisa Abrajano & Marianna Garcia from @ucsandiego.bsky.social, and Aaron Pope, @robertvidigal.bsky.social, Edwin Kamau, @jatucker.bsky.social, & Jonathan Nagler of CSMaP.

Please share / RT:

***Call for papers: Conference on "Representation, Democracy, and the Economic Backgrounds of Politicians"***

Paper proposals should be submitted by February 21, using this form: forms.gle/Stz7apkkHTgt...

Please direct any questions to centerforglobaldemocracy@vanderbilt.edu.

Brief 69: Bottom-up accountability and public service provision in Brazil – EGAP EGAP researchers: Danilo Freire, Manoel Galdino, Umberto Mignozzetti

Today we're highlighting Danilo Freire, @mgaldino.bsky.social & @umbertomig.bsky.social 's work exploring whether bottom-up, citizen-based monitoring improves public service delivery in Brazil.

Read more here: https://buff.ly/4gFBb7b

Latin America's response to U.S. policy won't be pretty for the U.S. right wing and poetic for the left wing. I don't think folks get what a bipartisan mess it has been: myopically focused on drugs and migrants, neglect of infrastructure projects and targetted investments, and allowing China in.