Louis Willis

Food vouchers, free milk and two-child cap: Reeves weighs up help for families Ministers' long-awaited child poverty strategy is due this month - and it's closely tied to the Chancellor's Budget

Scrapping the cap entirely is both good policy *and* good politics.

Half measures will "save" some money short-term, but will piss *everybody* off and still leave very large numbers of children suffering from a policy designed to make them poorer.

inews.co.uk/news/politic...

This was excellent. I’ve been trying to put my finger on what is making UK politics feel so airless at the moment and I think a big part of it is the futurelessness that Mulgan diagnoses here.

Late period Osborne: interest rates at zero and 50-80bn of headroom: and his priority was “don’t invest”.

Responding to the Chancellor's speech, Louis Willis, Director of the Invest in Britain campaign, said:

The value of public R&D

Government has published one of those quiet but important documents that might get overlooked as it is not 'newsy'. The headline finding is that £1 of public R&D investment generates £8 in net economic benefits for the UK over the long term
www.gov.uk/government/p...

Enjoyed this wide-ranging discussion across fiscal + monetary policy and the links between them. Great to hear clarity and challenge on subjects that are too often mystified and naturalised.

Great new research that is worth a read for anyone interested in the politics of fiscal policy.

For me, two key takeaways:
- Voters will punish Labour for failing on child poverty, whatever they say about two-child limit as standalone policy
- Voters love wealth taxes, even when framed negatively

Wealth Gap Risk Register 2025 An online resource that collates evidence about the impacts of wealth inequality, the solutions and public attitudes to all of the above

The wealth gap between rich and poor increased by over 50% from 2011 to 2021, to over £11.5 trillion. Find out more about the impacts on our society, economy, democracy and environment, and what we can do about it, from our updated Wealth Gap Risk Register.

Great story illustrating how legacies of under-investment and privatisation have fed into current crises in cost of living and local govt finances.

Action in Brighton sounds promising too but national govt needs to do more to support scaling these kind of solutions.

Labour MPs call for Chancellor to hike taxes for greater spending - poll - LabourList A majority of Labour MPs think the Chancellor should raise taxes at the Budget to allow for additional spending and investment above the amount needed to meet her fiscal rules.

Labour MPs want the Chancellor to go beyond fiscal tinkering at the upcoming Budget.

New polling reveals a majority of Labour MPs (52%) think the Chancellor should raise taxes to fund more spending & investment rather than just to meet her fiscal rules: labourlist.org/2025/10/labo...

This week's New Economy Brief looks at the crisis in local government funding - its roots, its consequences and possible solutions:
neweconomybrief.net/the-digest/c...

I’m tempted to say Heath. But perhaps that’s because I’ve just finished @tommctague.bsky.social’s excellent book on the UK relationship to European integration and Heath seems the last Tory leader not caught up in the delusion or ambivalence (or both) about Europe that was so crucial to downfall.

Can’t believe I didn’t know about this, massive news

Sof has managed to write about patriotism with a sense of humour and while avoiding cringe earnestness on the one hand or derision on the other.

In carrying off this near-impossible feat she has perfectly embodied the culture she’s writing about here. Enjoyed this very much.

Responding to the Chancellor's speech at the Labour Party Conference today, Louis Willis, Director of the Invest in Britain campaign, said:

Northern Powerhouse Rail plans delayed again The BBC understands the prime minister will now not announce plans for a rail link between Manchester and Liverpool at the Labour Party conference.

Hope this doesn’t prove to be the case. The government has talked a good game on exactly this kind of infrastructure investment - now it needs to deliver.

And coming just before Liverpool conference would be all too reminiscent of Sunak on HS2 in Manchester 2023.

www.bbc.com/news/article...

What was in the US-UK Tech Prosperity deal? How does it fit into wider trade negotiations with the US? And what are the implications of conceding to the demands of the ‘Big Tech’ lobby? We explore all this and more in this week's New Economy Brief: neweconomybrief.net/the-digest/t...

To deliver the stability you have rightly emphasised, you must find additional tax revenue at the coming Budget. There are progressive, pro-growth options available if the government is willing to undertake more fundamental reforms to the tax system. Above all, the tax and pension system needs to be rebalanced so that better-off older people, especially those with substantial property and pension wealth, make a much larger contribution to addressing the fiscal pressures that result from increasing spend on the NHS, social care and pensions. These and other pressures on public spending must also be managed in a more sustainable way.

Higher investment, sustainable spending, raise taxes/reform pensions so better-off older people pay their share.

Advice for the Chancellor from Gus O'Donnell, @mazzucatom.bsky.social, Jim O'Neill, @uofgvc.bsky.social @elerianm.bsky.social, @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social & me.

archive.ph/I9PVc#select...

Policymakers urge Rachel Reeves to tax ‘better-off older people’ Economists and academics tell the chancellor to stabilise the public finances by boosting investment with levies on wealth and stamp duty reform

Some of the UK’s most distinguished economists have written to the Chancellor warning that fiscal sustainability will not be achieved “without a significant further increase in public investment” to drive economic growth: www.thetimes.com/article/5acc...

Economics 101: Making sense of Reeves' fiscal rules Request access to Project Boost

🚀🌍 Project Boost is collaborating with @econchange.bsky.social to run Economics 101, a new series aimed at increasing your understanding of our economy.

Join us, @chaitanyakumar.bsky.social & @louiswillis.bsky.social for 'Making sense of Reeves' fiscal rules'.

🗓️ 18 Sep, 10:00am

Request access:

I used to take it for granted that the OBR will downgrade its productivity forecast in the autumn, leading to a chunky fiscal contraction.

But the talented @willellisecon.bsky.social looked into the data and convinced me otherwise. Evidence base is really not as clear cut as some suggest. 👇

We want to make sure Rachel Reeves MP sees some important % and ££s:
🇬🇧 80% of UK millionaires support a 2% tax on wealth over £10m
🇬🇧 81% think it’s patriotic to pay their fair share
We’re proud to pay and here to stay
#taxthesuperrich #taxwealthnotwork

Majority of Labour MPs oppose Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules Divisions within the party are exposed as two thirds of MPs are against the Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans

🧵New polling from @investinbritain.bsky.social by
@survation.bsky.social reveals a majority of Labour MPs want the Chancellor to change course on fiscal policy.

1/8 thetimes.com/article/6448...

Tackling the childcare crisis.

This week, we explore the economic case for childcare investment and the arguments for counting it as capital rather than current spending.

www.neweconomybrief.net/the-digest/t...

What if the decisions behind the government's benefit cuts were based partly on inaccurate data?
‍
This week we explore ongoing problems with some of the most important economic indicators calculated by the Office for National Statistics: neweconomybrief.net/the-digest/c...

Anneliese Dodds says government must 'reassess' fiscal rules in first speech since resignation - Politics.co.uk Anneliese Dodds has urged the government to “reassess” its fiscal rules and pledges on taxation in her first commons speech since her resignation. Dodds, the former international development minister,...

🚨NEW: Anneliese Dodds says govt must ‘reassess’ fiscal rules and taxation pledges in first speech since resignation

“We must be prepared to reassess shibboleths, whether they be the fiscal rules, as Germany has done, or on taxation.”

Thread of clips from this thoughtful speech 👇

The OBR was created in 2010, and it’s no coincidence that the UK has been stuck in an economic doom loop since then

Governments repeatedly design budgets to game the OBR’s highly uncertain projections of highly problematic fiscal rules. This is part of the doom loop

Briefing on the 2025 Spring Statement - Invest in Britain

@investinbritain.bsky.social has put out a briefing on why the Chancellor cut spending yesterday and why this was a mistake.

There's a growing case to review a fiscal framework that is no longer serving either growth or fiscal sustainability.

investinbritain.org.uk/resource/bri...

Yesterday the Chancellor announced £8.4bn of cuts to welfare and departmental spending in order to meet her fiscal rules. This decision is based on forecasts which the OBR warn are highly uncertain. 1/4

NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social

Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.

Household finances remain the elephant in the room.

If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.

Thread.