Victoria Guida

Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks

NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks

It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman

🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com

Senior Trump official tells institutions: Break up with Larry Summers Emails revealed that Summers repeatedly sought advice from Epstein on romantically pursuing a woman he referred to as his mentee.

NEWS: The Trump administration is calling on companies and organizations to sever ties with Larry Summers in the wake of new revelations about his relationship with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...

How Much Does Trump Really Want to Rein in the Fed? Top contenders to lead the Federal Reserve under Trump are lining up around a policy that doesn’t seem Trump-like.

President Trump is eagerly awaiting the day he will have a new Fed chair, but in the race to replace Jay Powell, much of the conversation has focused on something that doesn’t feel particularly Trump-y.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

The choice between “big states” and private companies is a false one - smart states know how to catalyse private sector investment.

Read more in my conversation with @politico.com about how Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to U.S. industrial strategy ➡️ buff.ly/1fLtboY

‘He’s Actually Weakening the Economy’: Why Trump’s Strategy May Fail A top economist says Trump is doing industrial policy all wrong.

“He’s actually weakening the economy by eliminating the very industrial strategy that led, in the past 50 to 100 years, companies like Intel to be born.”

I interviewed @mazzucatom.bsky.social for Politico Magazine on Trump’s brand of capitalism
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Question from @vtg2.bsky.social : are you worried about a contraction in AI investment?

A: These companies actually have earnings. Clearly data centers are a source of growth. But consumer spending is much bigger than that and continues to defy forecasts this year. [my argument all the time!!!]

Fed's data blackout deepens during shutdown The lack of information is especially troubling now, with the central bank facing so many mixed signals on the economy.

The Fed isn’t getting lots of data during the government shutdown, and the data it does have are confusing.
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

Everything is terrible, but here is Proust on newspapers

Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways Democrats are promising to take on the high cost of living. Can they even agree on what’s causing the affordability crisis?

Meanwhile @vtg2.bsky.social and I have a discussion in @politico.com today that places the Framework a little more firmly in intra-Democratic policy debates.

(With a social preview image that strongly implies Ezra Klein was a White House aide.) /8

www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways Democrats are promising to take on the high cost of living. Can they even agree on what’s causing the affordability crisis?

COLUMN: Dems vowed to take on the high cost of living. But they’ve yet to offer a cohesive solution — and there’s even disagreement about what’s causing the affordability crisis, writes @vtg2.bsky.social.

One former White House aide wants to help Dems resolve that.👇

Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways Democrats are promising to take on the high cost of living. Can they even agree on what’s causing the affordability crisis?

Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways

My Q&A with @mtkonczal.bsky.social on the politics and policy around affordability:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Are you saying that anytime a political party shifts its messaging on an issue in response to what’s going on in the country, they are hypocrites? That feels reductive to me.

(And running on the fact that tariffs are taxes is, yes, a shift in messaging for the party)

FWIW, I’m not sure where you got that — I didn’t remotely call them hypocrites

Why Jared Polis Wants Democrats to Campaign on Free Trade After years of trying to have it all ways on tariffs, Democrats are uniting in opposition to Trump’s global trade war.

Democrats across the country are going all-in on attacking Trump’s global tariffs.

“The time is right for Democrats to lead again on trade,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told me.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Q from @vtg2.bsky.social: As markets have questions about Trump's intentions w/ the Fed, what would you point to as signs that the FOMC is making decisions on the economic outlook not the political picture?

A [paraphrasing]: Listen to communications, "you would be able to tell".

Fed cuts rates as Trump adviser Miran presses central bank to go bigger It was the central bank's first rate cut in Trump's second term and comes after months of strident attacks by the president on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in a bid to protect the weakening job market, a move that is unlikely to end President Donald Trump’s broadsides against the central bank.
www.politico.com/news/2025/09...

Thank you so much!

1/ In a recent article, @conorsen.bsky.social suggested once the pool of unemployed gets big enough, managers will start ramping up layoffs.

In the two relevant recessions for which we have JOLTS data, the relevant threshold (to the degree one exists) was around 5%.

cc @weisenthal.bsky.social

The stakes are very high. Fed is “for cause” or “at will”

The Real Stakes in Trump’s Bid to Fire Lisa Cook If the court gives Trump authority to decide the grounds on which Fed board members can be ousted, it could create a pathway to removing other central bank officials.

Wall Street has shrugged off President Trump’s attempt to Lisa Cook, even as the matter is destined to reach the Supreme Court.

But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Trump adviser Miran will take unpaid leave from White House if confirmed to Fed His comment drew criticism from Senate Banking Democrats, who suggested it would compromise his independence from the White House.

Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee for an open seat on the Federal Reserve, said he would take an unpaid leave of absence from his current role at the White House rather than resign.
www.politico.com/live-updates...

‘The Bar for Success is Negative’: Claudia Sheinbaum’s Approach to Trump is a Warning Sign The U.S. president is largely defeating his counterparts.

NEW COLUMN: People are applauding Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum for her handling of US President Donald Trump. But why? Because not losing is what counts as winning in global leadership today. (Also read for some intriguing nuggets at the end of this piece.) www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Doesn’t have to be VHS. But I’m not not talking about VHS…

Much as I love the convenience of streaming services…. I’m kinda ready to bring back Blockbuster

Judge weighs Trump’s power to fire Fed board member But the judge issued no immediate decision on Lisa Cook’s status and likely will not rule until next week.

NEW: Judge Cobb gave no hint about how she might rule on Lisa Cook’s firing, and the uncertainty is likely to linger into next week as she seeks further argument on the issue.

w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @vtg2.bsky.social

www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Trump Tests The Fed’s ‘Don’t Panic’ Strategy The ultra-calculating central bank tried to put off confrontation with Trump for as long as possible. Now, time’s running out.

COLUMN: Trump is testing the Fed’s "don’t panic" strategy, writes our @vtg2.bsky.social.

Scott Alvarez, who served as the Fed’s general counsel, said the Trump-Cook clash presented a dilemma with swirling unknowns for the Fed.

“Do they walk out on an innocent person, or do they keep a guilty person?” Alvarez said. “They don’t want to be the one that decides that kind of thing.”

You can click on the link in that graf to find out

Trump Tests The Fed’s ‘Don’t Panic’ Strategy The ultra-calculating central bank tried to put off confrontation with Trump for as long as possible. Now, time’s running out.

The Fed’s response to President Trump’s attempted firing of Lisa Cook is characteristic of the Powell era: the subtlest, least controversial form of resistance.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Fed's Powell opens door to rate cut amid Trump pressure The Fed chair said the decision would be based on incoming economic data, signaling it was not a response to the president's call for lower borrowing costs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted Friday that the Fed might cut interest rates soon but added a subtle bit of context: It’s not because President Donald Trump is pressuring him.
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...