Victoria Guida

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.

No longer.

Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

The job market isn't as good as we thought. There might be an upside for Trump. Emerging signs of an economic slowdown could help spur the Federal Reserve to cut rates to ease off the economy as soon as September.

The odds that President Donald Trump will get an interest rate cut soon just went up. But not for the reasons he wants.
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Q from @vtg2.bsky.social: Do you see the interest in the Fed renovations as directly tied to the push to lower rates?

A: Not for me to say. We had a nice visit.

Follow up: any aspects raised that make you reconsider parts?

A: Pleased the President said he wanted us to get it completed ASAP.

Just write badly and then edit. Maybe you still have the ability to edit!

Why Wall Street still hasn’t priced in Trump President Donald Trump’s trade agenda and his attempts to undermine Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pose risks to markets and the broader economy. His management of both issues will collide next w...

How investors and CEOs could be blindsided by what’s ahead on tariffs and the Fed

By @samjsutton.bsky.social and me, in our debut weekly edition of Morning Money: Capital Risk
www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Mr. Trump goes to the Fed. A curious encounter follows. Fed staff told reporters that it would have been less expensive to just build a new building rather than restore the two historic properties.

Mr. Trump goes to the Fed. A curious encounter follows.
www.politico.com/news/2025/07...

Deutsche Bank economists find President Trump firing Chair Powell would only save $12B-15B on interest costs through 2027, even if Treasury skews debt issuance to bills, which mature in a year or less (removing Powell would make short-term rates go down & long-term rates go up)

Behind Trump's move to back off Powell: Lawyers warned against it. Privately, White House officials acknowledge uncertainty about Trump firing Powell solely based on accusations he mismanaged a multi-year renovation project.

Behind Trump's move to back off firing Powell: Lawyers warned against it.

What happens next to the Fed may hinge on a counterintuitive question: Can temperate voices persuade Trump that the central bank’s insulation from immediate political pressures — from him — is actually good for him?

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

What happens next to the Fed may hinge on a counterintuitive question: Can temperate voices persuade Trump that the central bank’s insulation from immediate political pressures — from him — is actually good for him?

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

House Democratic leaders won't whip against crypto bills A slate of digital currency bills is poised to split Democrats on the House floor this week.

House Dem leaders won't whip against the landmark crypto bills that will be on the floor later this week, despite opposition from the party’s top member on the Financial Services Committee.

BREAKING via AP:

At least 161 people are still missing after catastrophic floods in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott says.

How Trump’s Very MAGA Tax Cuts Break with GOP Tradition Republicans have long been in favor of lower rates and a simpler tax code. For Trump, only one of those priorities mattered.

COLUMN: Republicans have long been in favor of lower rates and a simpler tax code. For Trump, only one of those priorities mattered, writes our economics correspondent and Capital Letter author @vtg2.bsky.social.

My latest column: How the One Big Beautiful Bill departs from decades of GOP rhetoric on taxes
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Q from @vtg2.bsky.social on the monetary policy review currently underway: will a new Chair make it obsolete?

A: No, this is the FOMC's document. "I've never heard anyone raise this issue that, you know, a new Chair might want to come in and go in a completely different direction."

Fed’s Powell on tariffs and monetary policy: “Don't know what the right way for us to react will be, I think it's hard to know with any confidence, how we should react until we see really the size of the effects, and then we think we'll start to make a better judgment.”

How Trump’s Top Economist Envisions Victory in the Trade War Stephen Miran sees a clear route to success for Trump’s trade policy. But it’s a narrow and precarious path.

For my latest column, I spoke with Trump chief economist Stephen Miran about the economic effects of tariffs
www.politico.com/news/2025/06...

I disagree
bsky.app/profile/vtg2...

(*especially* given that in trade law, there’s a long tradition of countries being given broad flexibility in determining what counts as an issue of national security)

I don’t agree with this take. It was well-covered that IEEPA had never been used for tariffs before, and because of that fact, it would’ve been hard for a straight news reporter to draw definitive conclusions about how a court would define the scope of economic emergency.

Powell to Trump: Fed rate moves guided by ‘non-political analysis’ Powell made no commitments, “except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information,” the Fed said.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump met at the White House on Thursday for the first time in the president’s second term, following recent comments from Trump voicing frustration that Powell hasn’t cut interest rates.
www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

I can’t believe anyone in institutional finance would say something like this with a straight face. By that logic baseball cards are a safe investment: www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

Investors Are Sending a Warning to Congress. Will Washington Listen? If lawmakers don’t absorb a gentle message from the bond markets, they may get an even more unpleasant one.

“For the first time in my professional life, we’re seeing a shift, with investors looking askance at Treasury debt.”

Investors Are Sending a Warning to Congress. Will Washington Listen? If lawmakers don’t absorb a gentle message from the bond markets, they may get an even more unpleasant one.

Column: This week, the bond market sent a gentle warning that the path of the national debt is a problem. But Congress is not known for heeding gentle warnings, writes our economics correspondent Victoria Guida.

Investors Are Sending a Warning to Congress. Will Washington Listen? If lawmakers don’t absorb a gentle message from the bond markets, they may get an even more unpleasant one.

This week, the long-term cost of financing the national debt surged.

Take notice: This is as gentle a warning as Washington is going to get about growing deficits.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Abundance aside, this is literally my whole philosophy

I don’t follow: why is it the wrong question?

Serious question: Is there really a safer debt instrument than US Treasuries?

Moody's downgrades U.S. credit, citing rising debt The firm said it expects federal deficits to widen, mostly due to increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending and relatively low revenue generation.

Breaking: Moody’s Ratings Service is downgrading the U.S.’s credit, citing increased government debt over the past decade and rising interest payments.

Why Trump and China pulled back from their trade war The agreement reached this weekend is an acknowledgment that a full-on economic divorce of the U.S. and China would be too painful for both sides.

“Even Teflon Don can’t outrun economic reality.”

>>> The manufacturing sector, watching order books dry up, has been shrinking its workforce. Ports are warning of a plunge in shipments. Economists have been calculating significant odds of a recession.

www.politico.com/news/2025/05...