Victoria Guida

Are you saying that anytime a political party shifts its messaging on an issue in response to what’s going on in the country, they are hypocrites? That feels reductive to me.

(And running on the fact that tariffs are taxes is, yes, a shift in messaging for the party)

FWIW, I’m not sure where you got that — I didn’t remotely call them hypocrites

Why Jared Polis Wants Democrats to Campaign on Free Trade After years of trying to have it all ways on tariffs, Democrats are uniting in opposition to Trump’s global trade war.

Democrats across the country are going all-in on attacking Trump’s global tariffs.

“The time is right for Democrats to lead again on trade,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told me.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Q from @vtg2.bsky.social: As markets have questions about Trump's intentions w/ the Fed, what would you point to as signs that the FOMC is making decisions on the economic outlook not the political picture?

A [paraphrasing]: Listen to communications, "you would be able to tell".

Fed cuts rates as Trump adviser Miran presses central bank to go bigger It was the central bank's first rate cut in Trump's second term and comes after months of strident attacks by the president on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in a bid to protect the weakening job market, a move that is unlikely to end President Donald Trump’s broadsides against the central bank.
www.politico.com/news/2025/09...

Thank you so much!

1/ In a recent article, @conorsen.bsky.social suggested once the pool of unemployed gets big enough, managers will start ramping up layoffs.

In the two relevant recessions for which we have JOLTS data, the relevant threshold (to the degree one exists) was around 5%.

cc @weisenthal.bsky.social

The stakes are very high. Fed is “for cause” or “at will”

The Real Stakes in Trump’s Bid to Fire Lisa Cook If the court gives Trump authority to decide the grounds on which Fed board members can be ousted, it could create a pathway to removing other central bank officials.

Wall Street has shrugged off President Trump’s attempt to Lisa Cook, even as the matter is destined to reach the Supreme Court.

But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Trump adviser Miran will take unpaid leave from White House if confirmed to Fed His comment drew criticism from Senate Banking Democrats, who suggested it would compromise his independence from the White House.

Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee for an open seat on the Federal Reserve, said he would take an unpaid leave of absence from his current role at the White House rather than resign.
www.politico.com/live-updates...

‘The Bar for Success is Negative’: Claudia Sheinbaum’s Approach to Trump is a Warning Sign The U.S. president is largely defeating his counterparts.

NEW COLUMN: People are applauding Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum for her handling of US President Donald Trump. But why? Because not losing is what counts as winning in global leadership today. (Also read for some intriguing nuggets at the end of this piece.) www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Doesn’t have to be VHS. But I’m not not talking about VHS…

Much as I love the convenience of streaming services…. I’m kinda ready to bring back Blockbuster

Judge weighs Trump’s power to fire Fed board member But the judge issued no immediate decision on Lisa Cook’s status and likely will not rule until next week.

NEW: Judge Cobb gave no hint about how she might rule on Lisa Cook’s firing, and the uncertainty is likely to linger into next week as she seeks further argument on the issue.

w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @vtg2.bsky.social

www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Trump Tests The Fed’s ‘Don’t Panic’ Strategy The ultra-calculating central bank tried to put off confrontation with Trump for as long as possible. Now, time’s running out.

COLUMN: Trump is testing the Fed’s "don’t panic" strategy, writes our @vtg2.bsky.social.

Scott Alvarez, who served as the Fed’s general counsel, said the Trump-Cook clash presented a dilemma with swirling unknowns for the Fed.

“Do they walk out on an innocent person, or do they keep a guilty person?” Alvarez said. “They don’t want to be the one that decides that kind of thing.”

You can click on the link in that graf to find out

Trump Tests The Fed’s ‘Don’t Panic’ Strategy The ultra-calculating central bank tried to put off confrontation with Trump for as long as possible. Now, time’s running out.

The Fed’s response to President Trump’s attempted firing of Lisa Cook is characteristic of the Powell era: the subtlest, least controversial form of resistance.

My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Fed's Powell opens door to rate cut amid Trump pressure The Fed chair said the decision would be based on incoming economic data, signaling it was not a response to the president's call for lower borrowing costs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted Friday that the Fed might cut interest rates soon but added a subtle bit of context: It’s not because President Donald Trump is pressuring him.
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

‘There’s no hiding’: Powell faces daunting options in pivotal speech The economic dilemma comes on top of an extraordinary, high-pressure political situation the Fed chair faces, as Trump relentlessly demands lower rates.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is in a tense moment — and it’s not only because of the unyielding attacks he’s facing from President Donald Trump over his refusal to cut interest rates
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

For D.C.’s Homeless, Strained Lives Become More Unstable

“These are people like me and people like you ... That’s just where they sleep.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/u...

I aim to be regular but not predictable

Investors don’t know what’s coming for the Treasury market A persistent theme has crept into financial policy discussions lately: the need to reduce the costs paid by the U.S. government on its massive debt load.

In this week’s Morning Money: Capital Risk, I write about a buzzy topic on Wall Street: Treasury’s management of the debt
www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Trump officials cast a wider net for Powell replacement at Fed The list suggests officials are aiming to present the president with a diverse set of options to succeed the Fed chair.

Trump's shortlist for Fed Chair:
-Fed Vice Chairs Philip Jefferson and Michelle Bowman
-Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
-Former St. Louis Fed Chair Bullard
-Marc Sumerlin
-Kevin Hassett
-Kevin Warsh
-Christopher Waller
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Trump officials cast a wider net for Powell replacement at Fed The list suggests officials are aiming to present the president with a diverse set of options to succeed the Fed chair.

Admin officials are expanding their list of candidates to replace Fed Chair Powell next year as they search for someone who can garner the trust of both the president and financial markets.

More private sector names are also likely to be considered:
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

🚨Global supply shock

‼️New US #tariffs taking effect on August 7 are set to raise the average tariff rate to 17.6% — the highest level since the early 1930s – from 2.8% at the start of the year

Thanks, Nell!!

‘You’re Asking Me to Contemplate the Nuclear Scenario’ A former Federal Reserve official gets candid about Trump’s firing of the BLS chief.

Must read: Politico’s Victoria Guida interviews PIIE’s David Wilcox about the BLS and importance of trustworthy government statistics www.politico.com/news/magazin...

‘You’re Asking Me to Contemplate the Nuclear Scenario’ A former Federal Reserve official gets candid about Trump’s firing of the BLS chief.

My @piie.com colleagues @jedkolko.bsky.social and @davidwilcox.bsky.social have well considered views on how to improve US government statistics. Jed's will be published tomorrow.

Today, please read David's in-depth interview with @vtg2.bsky.social via @politico.com
politi.co/4meQWoI

‘You’re Asking Me to Contemplate the Nuclear Scenario’ A former Federal Reserve official gets candid about Trump’s firing of the BLS chief.

"You’re asking me to contemplate the nuclear scenario": A top economist gets candid about Trump’s firing of the BLS chief with our economics correspondent @vtg2.bsky.social👇