GEESE - GETTING KILLED

i love listening to new bands because i get to be like "thank you for singing to me, extremely talented child"

26.09.2025 18:07 — 👍 52    🔁 5    💬 1    📌 0

BLUE: A Bayesian Approach to College Football Ratings

Read the full writeup here: lauerjames.github.io/BLUE/

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Huge thanks to @stat-ron.bsky.social‬ for being the best and telling me to write this, and also the
cfbfastR team for making the data accessible! Also shoutout to the people who hired me for the exciting new job I'm starting later today (will announce soon)!

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

2024 ACC BLUE Rankings

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

2024 Big 12 BLUE Rankings

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

2024 SEC BLUE Rankings

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

2024 Big Ten BLUE Rankings

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Unlike traditional rankings that give you a single number, BLUE provides uncertainty quantification. You can see estimates of the probability distributions for each team's true ability level. Below are the top 5 and bottom 5 pass and run defenses from 2024:

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

BLUE uses Bayesian inference to simultaneously estimate all team ratings while automatically adjusting for opponent strength. It runs on Stan and was based on the popular NBA statistic RAPM (shoutout Ahmad Cheema for this plot)

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

🏈 Introducing BLUE (Bayesian Learned Unit Efficiency) - a new way to rank college football teams that goes beyond counting stats and even raw EPA/Play. Here's how it works:🧵

07.07.2025 12:54 — 👍 6    🔁 2    💬 1    📌 1

lower the alpha a bit brother

28.03.2025 01:38 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0