Michal Kranz

Trump still can’t resist Putin

Despite his new sanctions, Trump is sure to flip back to Putin’s side on Ukraine once he sees that strong-arming Kyiv will be his quickest path to getting what he truly wants — a new Russo-American partnership on trade, resources, and more. My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/10/trum...

Trump still can’t resist Putin

Despite his new sanctions, Trump is sure to flip back to Putin’s side on Ukraine once he sees that strong-arming Kyiv will be his quickest path to getting what he truly wants — a new Russo-American partnership on trade, resources, and more. My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/10/trum...

Ukraine has become an energy war The global oil and gas trade is now the front on which the War in Ukraine may be won

“With the US and the EU stepping up their pressure not only in Europe, but globally, the oil and gas front has become the most important and likely most impactful theater in the entire war.”

My latest on Trump’s sanctions and Ukraine’s drone war: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ha...

Ukraine has become an energy war The global oil and gas trade is now the front on which the War in Ukraine may be won

“With the US and the EU stepping up their pressure not only in Europe, but globally, the oil and gas front has become the most important and likely most impactful theater in the entire war.”

My latest on Trump’s sanctions and Ukraine’s drone war: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ha...

Trump turns on Ukraine, Poland frees Nord Stream 2 sabotage suspect, and the EU announces a new defense plan October 14-20, 2025 in Eastern Europe

“Trump will almost certainly halt this intelligence sharing to make room for the negotiations as he has in the past meaning that all the gains Ukraine has made on the energy front will go to waste — which of course is exactly what Putin wants.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-turn...

Trump turns on Ukraine, Poland frees Nord Stream 2 sabotage suspect, and the EU announces a new defense plan October 14-20, 2025 in Eastern Europe

“Trump will almost certainly halt this intelligence sharing to make room for the negotiations as he has in the past meaning that all the gains Ukraine has made on the energy front will go to waste — which of course is exactly what Putin wants.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-turn...

Moscow threatens Trump, Russia's 'little green men' appear near Estonia, and Poland gets exemption from EU migration pact October 7-13, 2025 in Eastern Europe

“While these [Russian] troops luckily didn’t come into contact with any passenger traffic, if they had, Estonia might now be talking about the first case of one of its citizens being kidnapped by Russian forces — or worse.” My latest news analysis: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/moscow-thr...

A stunningly poignant ending. Diversity and multiculturalism are hardly alien to Eastern Europe — indeed, they were once central to it. Rather than turning its back on this legacy as something dead and buried, the whole of Europe should look to it as a model for its future:

A stirring and bittersweet summation of the tragedy of Eastern Europe:

Every Pole born in the mid-90s or earlier remembers the massive market in the Stadium of the 10th Anniversary — but I had no idea about the geographic spread of its diverse customer base:

A Hungarian leader welcoming immigrants to his lands in order to enrich their diversity, cultural wealth, and economic prosperity — unheard of!

This passage is crucial for understanding why Eastern Europe has historically been such a chaotic wilderness of ethnic identity — for centuries, empire and smaller states alike made few efforts to unify their realms under a single ethnic or religious identity:

The centrality of the Polish crown to the Jewish experience cannot be overstated. Although it’s not easy to perceive in modern-day Poland, the history of Judaism is inseparable from the country’s history:

I’m late to the party, but I’ve just finished Jacob Mikanowski’s Goodbye Eastern Europe, a book about the multicultural patchwork of experiences and identities that once defined Eastern Europe. A few sections that spoke my own vision of what this region was, is, and could be again 🧵:

A new Ukrainian missile was demonstrated. It appears to be a modified Neptune missile. mod.gov.ua/news/mi-zakl...

Trump shares critical intel with Ukraine, populist Babiš wins in Czechia, and Georgian protestors stage their last stand September 30-October 6, 2025 in Eastern Europe

“Trump admin’s move to share intelligence with Kyiv on long-range strikes clearly signals that it is still willing to play a role in its military activities — and more importantly, that Ukraine’s strikes are working and are worth bolstering.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-shar...

Trump mulls giving Tomahawks to Ukraine, a pro-EU party wins in Moldova, and Poland alters law on downing objects over Ukraine September 23-29, 2025 in Eastern Europe

“For the first time since he took office, Trump is handing the reigns of the West’s role in Ukraine back across the Atlantic and tying his own horse to Ukraine’s prospects in hopes of securing a much-needed win in the war.”My analysis of last week’s news: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-mull...

Trump's pro-Ukraine shift isn't what it looks like — but there's good news for Europe and Zelensky Trump's change in attitude opens plenty of doors for Ukraine and European NATO

My latest on what Trump’s U-turn on Ukraine really means in practice for the country and its European allies, and why it offers unexpected opportunities for them on long-range weapons permissions, American help with Russian incursions into NATO, and more: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trumps-pro...

Russia violates Estonian airspace, Trump promises cuts to Baltic security aid, and the EU bargains with Orbán over Russian oil September 15-22, 2025 in Eastern Europe

“Russia is establishing new rules of the game in NATO’s east, setting the stage for a new phase in its undeclared conflict with the alliance. Poland’s promise to shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airspace is a logical next step” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-vio...

Estonia’s opioid crisis is heading for Britain

For years now, a new opioid class has been replacing fentanyl: nitazenes. Last month, I traveled to the nitazene epidemic’s unlikely epicenter, Estonia, where I dug deep into a marginalized underworld rarely seen by outsiders. My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/the-...

Estonia’s opioid crisis is heading for Britain

For years now, a new opioid class has been replacing fentanyl: nitazenes. Last month, I traveled to the nitazene epidemic’s unlikely epicenter, Estonia, where I dug deep into a marginalized underworld rarely seen by outsiders. My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/the-...

How Putin is conquering Poland

“The Russian assault has exposed a strategic blind spot in a piece of Warsaw’s defence architecture that could yet prove its Achilles Heel. For Russia, probing this space may have been exactly the point.” My latest on Putin’s drone attack on Poland in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/how-...

Good analysis of Russia’s drone incursion into Poland. “Without an Article V declaration from NATO, Russia now understands that the alliance will tolerate provocations like this… meaning that Moscow’s field of movement has expanded. Expect more such incursions over the coming weeks and months.”

The Russian drone attack on Poland is the future of NATO's East — and no one is prepared Sub-Article V warfare is set to dominate Eastern Europe, in the air and beyond

Just posted my latest analysis on Wednesday’s events here: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/the-russia...

The Russian drone attack on Poland is the future of NATO's East — and no one is prepared Sub-Article V warfare is set to dominate Eastern Europe, in the air and beyond

With Wednesday’s action against Poland, Putin is setting the stage not for a full-on invasion of the country, but an unstable status quo of much lower level violence between Russia and NATO. My piece on the implications of Russia’s dramatic drone attack: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/the-russia...

💥Poland’s foreign minister @radek-sikorski.bsky.social reminded Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán that he once again failed to name or condemn Russia — and that his government is still blocking €2 billion in EU funds meant to compensate Poland for the military aid it has provided to Ukraine.

I think Russia would be very unwise to poke at Poland specifically. Yes, of course NATO, but Poland itself is a player which has been aggressively supporting Ukraine and building up it's military. I'm reminded of this analysis by @michalkranz.bsky.social from several months ago.

Russians dropped a glide bomb on elderly people who were waiting in line for their pensions. More than 20 dead.

Please. Don’t look away and don’t be silent. This is all I could ask for

The US and Europe agree on a security plan for Ukraine, Trump hints at more troops for Poland, and Zelensky meets with Fico September 2-8, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Recent moves by Trump on security guarantees for Ukraine are big news, and suggest there are forces within his admin that have been pushing him to adopt a harsher tone on Russia — and after the failures of August, they may finally be winning. My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

Are Poles turning into Ukraine sceptics? The past four decades of Poland’s social history resemble a pendulum swinging between idealism and realism — and after the inspiring solidarity Poles showed Ukrainians at the outset of Russia’s invasi...

“On the one hand, Poles have become more exclusive — and perhaps less imaginative — in how they define their security interests, treating the Nato defence umbrella as a zero-sum game. On the other hand, much has changed since 2022.” My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/newsroom/are...