Frank Pattyn

From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet - Nature Communications Even if net-zero emissions are reached well before 2100, West Antarctic ice-sheet retreat could still drive multi-meter sea-level rise by 2300. Emission reductions in the coming years are critical to ...

Antarctica’s future beyond 2100: high emissions drive major long-term ice loss. New study in Nature Communications by Vio Coulon and Ann Kristin Klose, showing that the fate of the Antarctic ice sheet, will play a decisive role in future sea level rise.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Sea Level Mis-information from DOE Here in the USA, the Department of Energy (DOE) has issued a report titled “A Critical Review of the Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate.” It is a product of the &#8…

Is sea level around the US accelerating? If you actually do the analysis, instead of just repeating talking points from decades ago, the answer is yes.
tamino.wordpress.com/2025/08/03/s...

Picture of the Italian town of Karthaus

📣 New paper: Where do we want the glaciological
community to be in 2073?
Some context: The Karthaus summer school is an occasion where parts of our research community comes together — In 2023, I was lucky to participate myself and it was the year in which a new workshop was included in the program.

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report. The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.

Our new paper updating key metrics in the IPCC is now out, and the news is grim:

⬆️ Human induced warming now at 1.36C
⬆️ Rate of warming now 0.27C / decade
⬆️ Sharp increase in Earth's energy imbalance
⬇️ Remaining 1.5C carbon budget only 130 GtCO2

essd.copernicus.org/...

#Art-science | @fpattyn.bsky.social presents "The sound of ice: using radar data and sonification in music composition" at #EGU today

🎵Amazing and inspiring work - check it out!

Les sciences du climat vont-elles s'effondrer? Les coupes claires effectuées dans les agences gouvernementales américaines mèneront-elles à des désastres climatiques ou météorologiques? L'Europe a-t-elle une carte scientifique à jouer? Attention, ...

On a tenté de faire le point avec François Massonnet, @jpvanypersele.bsky.social, @fpattyn.bsky.social, @celineguivarch.bsky.social, Bruno Delille et @frabier.bsky.social. [7/]

Le tout est à lire ici, via @lechobe.bsky.social 👇

www.lecho.be/economie-pol...

A map showing the topography of Antarctica, without ice

We’ve just published the most detailed map yet of the landscape beneath Antarctica’s ice sheet (called Bedmap3), and we learnt some pretty cool facts about Antarctica that you can use to impress your pals. Ready?

Graphic: Hamish Pritchard et al

Bedmap3 is now out
rdcu.be/ecTmO

Unieke expeditie brengt 1,2 miljoen jaar oud ijs uit Antarctica naar Brussels labo Na jaren boren is op Antarctica een ijskern van liefst 1,2 miljoen jaar oud bovengehaald. Een stukje daarvan moet straks in België belanden voor onderzoek. 'Luchtbellen in het ijs vertellen hoe het klimaat veranderd is. Daaruit kunnen we iets leren voor de toekomst.'

Unieke expeditie brengt 1,2 miljoen jaar oud ijs uit Antarctica naar Brussels labo

🌊Submersion: a collaboration between art and science

Submersion, created by @h2020protect.bsky.social and featuring art and science, delves into the impact of melting glaciers and rising seas

🗓️Feb 1–Mar 1, 2025
📍Saint-Martin d'Hères, France

🔗 Learn more: protect-slr.eu/2025/01/15/s...

#Publication | #Antarctica ’s long-term sea-level impact 🌊

👉Even low emissions could lock in meters of #SeaLevelRise from Antarctica, while high emissions could trigger up to +40m over millennia
👉We must consider long-term sea-level commitment in coastal planning

🔗 protect-slr.eu/2025/01/15/n...

Check the entire policy-brief here!
view.genially.com/677e7c942787...

#FinalMeeting I Ann Kristin Klose investigates the long term evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

À la recherche de glace vieille de plusieurs millions d’années - Actualités de l'ULB

actus.ulb.be/fr/actus/rec...

How is Antarctica melting, exactly? Crucial details are beginning to come into focus The Antarctic ice sheet is nearly twice the area of Australia and holds enough freshwater to raise global sea levels by 58 metres.

And accompanying article in @aunz.theconversation.com
theconversation.com/how-is-antar...

A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers Abstract. We present a novel and computationally efficient subglacial hydrological model that represents in a simplified way both hard- and soft-bed rheologies, as well as an automatic switch between ...

Kazmierczak et al present an efficient model that describes spatially and temporarily variable subglacial hydrology and geology, and their impacts on ice sheet flow in the ice sheet model Kori-ULB. This expands on a model I published last year. #ClimateChange #IceSheets 🧪🦣❄️ doi.org/10.5194/tc-1...

Le président Donald Trump quitte l’accord de Paris : est-ce foutu pour la planète ? Parmi la pluie de décrets que Donald Trump a signée dès le premier jour de son investiture comme 47e président des...

This article sums up quite well what I think (as well as my colleague Prof. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele) about President Trump's recent decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. For me, the biggest risk in the medium term is mainly his Minister of Efficiency...
www.rtbf.be/article/le-p...