Tyler Simko

Looking for a postdoc in American politics? Come work with us in Ann Arbor! No obligations other than research. Preference for institutions-focused work, but we’re open to a wide range of substantive interests (including local politics!). Happy to answer any questions: apply.interfolio.com/178829

Looking for a postdoc in American politics? Come work with us in Ann Arbor! No obligations other than research. Preference for institutions-focused work, but we’re open to a wide range of substantive interests (including local politics!). Happy to answer any questions: apply.interfolio.com/178829

Unexpected Margins: Analysis of the 2025 Elections Expert Q&A with takeaways and predictions drawn from the 2025 elections with CBS elections analyst and University of Michigan political scientist Tyler Simko

The big Democratic wins of the 2025 elections will shift political dynamics and strategies in the coming year. For key takeaways, read our Q&A with UM political scientist Tyler Simko @simko.bsky.social, elections analyst for CBS.

cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3516

Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins.

Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide

Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin

High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov

1/2

2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood CBS News estimates of how different parts of the city voted

NYC map shaded by vote margin!

We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize

Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.

datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/

H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social

2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood

Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/

Hover over map to see our estimates...

#CBSDataDesk🍎

Here at the CBS News data desk with @chriskenny.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social! Looking at the VA numbers

Supported by both the Fordham Institute and @wallacefoundation.bsky.social, Michael Hartney and I explored the extent to which U.S. school board members are politically and demographically representative of the communities they serve.

Here's a summary of our main findings:

1/12

Thanks so much @stano.bsky.social !! Yes, will definitely post a public draft here when we have it ready.

At APSA 2025: Local Governments and Symbolic Representation In Event: Political Representation in Urban Politics Thu, September 11, 8:00 to 9:30am PDT Tyler Simko, University of Michigan Taran Samarth, Yale University

👀 Local governments often take "symbolic" stances on issues where they hold no authority or jurisdiction. @simko.bsky.social and Taran Samarth examine the dynamics and purpose of "symbolic representation" by studying the response of US local governments to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. #APSA2025

Echoing @mirya.bsky.social, thanks David!! We’re super grateful for your interest.

Trump’s proposed snap Census won’t get him the seats he wants A new Census would likely diminish political representation for Republican areas.

Trump’s proposed rush job Census isn’t just immoral and regressive—it will harm communities across the country and compromise data quality: @chriskenny.bsky.social and I in @thehill.com today:

thehill.com/opinion/camp...

Do you use tract boundaries in your research? Jake Brown, @simko.bsky.social, and I have a new working paper (osf.io/preprints/so...): Any Way You Slice It: Racial Segregation Statistics are Robust to Aggregation Bias

We show that tract-level segregation is robust to MAUP using simulation methods.

"shifts in political geography and gerrymandering reduced the number of highly competitive districts by over 25% [from 2010 to 2020], with geographic polarization driving most of the decline."

In our polarized political environment, I’m excited to share my new ASR publication: “Competence over Partisanship: Party Affiliation Does Not Affect the Selection of School District Superintendents”. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Great article, and a good example of the continuing value of public, open source research tools (we published these simulations in 2022). When new claims and arguments arise, anyone can use existing resources to examine them.

Thanks so much, and yes! Will shoot you an email now.

Thanks so much @sjacks26.bsky.social!! We’re really excited by this, really hoping the data can be useful for other things exactly like this.

Republicans are seeking to create a durable gerrymander in Texas Short-term tactical gains in Texas could ultimately yield a race to the bottom.

You may have noticed things are happening fast in the world of redistricting…

I along with @maxwellpalmer.com and @simko.bsky.social wrote an article last week (though published today) that analyzes the changes to the congressional district map in Texas, and particularly San Antonio.

Thanks for reading David!! What a nice surprise to hear from you. Hope all is well and we can catch up soon.

Texas was already arguably the biggest Republican gerrymander in the nation, according to this PNAS paper by @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...

In Michigan, conspiracy thinking can be rooted in real historic harm Conspiracy thinking may result from paranoia or misinformation -- but it's often rooted actual harms and well-earned mistrust in government.

Is government suspicion based on real lived experiences and historic harm? #ISRNextGeneration scholar Franshelly Martinez-Ortiz writes on the case of Michigan, where events like the Flint Water Crisis give rise to lasting mistrust. @maraceci.bsky.social #MPSA2025 ➡️
cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3434

Urban–rural cleavages are seen as a defining political divide. But does this polarization hold worldwide? My new working paper tests this question using an original dataset of granular, geocoded election returns from 106 countries (polling station-level in 70). (1/8)