Dan Smith

Women in Congress are wealthier than men in Congress Women in Congress are wealthier than men in Congress. A new article looks at nearly 40 years of financial disclosures from members of Congress.

Women in Congress are wealthier than men in Congress.

A new article looks at nearly 40 years of financial disclosures from members of Congress.

See the data in the latest article from @johnsides.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/women-i...

Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain Leonardo Carella Abstract This article challenges the claim that open-list systems are beneficial for electoral participation, by reassessing and extending the analysis in a notable empirical paper that advances this argument. The paper (Carlos Sanz, “The effect of electoral systems on voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment”, PSRM, 2017) leverages a population-based discontinuity in Spanish municipal elections (1979–2011), where towns with fewer than 250 residents employ open lists whereas larger towns employ closed lists. Through a series of statistical tests and the inspection of alternative data sources, I show that the positive effect of open lists on turnout estimated in the paper is dubious, for two reasons: (1) non-random missing data, due to inconsistencies in how non-valid votes were recorded above and below the threshold, and (2) compound treatment issues, due to changes in list-length requirements at the threshold. I then proceed to show that, rather than improving turnout, the more complex open-list ballot actually hinders voters’ ability to express their preferences, by increasing the incidence of voter errors relative to closed lists (reflected in higher rates of ‘null’ voting). To support a causal interpretation of this relationship, I present evidence from the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, and show that a similar pattern obtains in Spanish general elections, where open and closed lists are used concurrently for the election of the country’s bicameral parliament. I conclude by discussing the implications of the analysis for implementing population-based regression discontinuities and evaluating electoral system effects.

New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social.

I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Press Room - VETA VETA News Press Room January 31, 2026 Press Release VETA’s analysis and calculation algorithm adopted for the Nikkei Vote Match system for the House of Representative election PDF View Details January...

More about VETA: veta.co.jp/en/press-room/

The approach is similar to policy conjoint experiments that I have done with Teppei, Yusaku Horiuchi, and Shiro Kuriwaki since 2014. @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social. E.g., www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Very cool: Nikkei has teamed up with Teppei Yamamoto's company, VETA, to create a voting advice application for Japan's current lower house election using policy-based conjoint surveys. Try it out! ⬇️

In Japanese politics, the Liberal Democratic Party faces a fragmented opposition. This article identifies a specific point of conflict that is preventing anti-government voters from unifying under a single party. Read more here: tinyurl.com/55auzbdh

After years in academia, I’m exploring data science and research roles in industry.

I'm a quant. social scientist (PhD Yale ’24, NYU) focused on causal inference, experiments, and large-scale data.

Feel free to get in touch or share; all leads appreciated. dwstommes@gmail.com

Japan Decides 2024 This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective

🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Features contributions from top scholars of Japan, including @kmcelwain.bsky.social (co-editor with Robert Pekkanen and me), Axel Klein & @levimclaughlin.bsky.social, @robfahey.net, @profvekasi.bsky.social, Ko Maeda, Kuniaki Nemoto, Masahiro Zenkyo, Masaki Taniguchi, Saori Katada, & many others.

Japan Decides 2024 This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective

🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Japan Decides 2024 This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective

When there's a Japan's House of Representatives race (Lower House), where the Prime Minister sits, a team of political scientists puts together a volume in the Japan Decides series (published by Springer) to cover the election's lead-up and results (thread)

link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Collage of portraits of APARC's former postdoctoral fellows.

⏰ Asia scholars, hurry up! Applications for APARC's 2026-2028 postdoctoral fellowships are due December 1. We offer multiple positions for recent PhDs across disciplines working on diverse issues related to contemporary Asia.

👉 Learn more and join us at Stanford next fall > stanford.io/4mS1bj8

Cool new paper by Trevor Incerti in the APSR! Political science research on Japan is undergoing a real renaissance in both its quality and relevance to the broader discipline––and a new generation of junior scholars like Trevor is leading the way.

Read "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan," by
@shirokuriwaki.bsky.social, @profdansmith.bsky.social, and
@yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social in Quarterly Journal of Political Science: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta... (open-access link).

Join us for another exciting #JPOSS tomorrow night! Erik Wang (NYU) will present new research on state-building in medieval Japan, with discussion from Emily Sellars (Yale) and Jun Yamasaki (Kyoto). Details and registration below ⬇️

New OA article w/ @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social and @profdansmith.bsky.social. Q. Why does Japan’s LDP stay dominant even when its policies aren’t preferred? A: valence > policy. Check it out here ➡️ [http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00024134] #PoliSci #Japan #Elections

USJF Now Taking Nominations for Second Annual PhD Dissertation Award in Japanese Studies USJF is accepting nominations for the 2026 Richard J. Samuels Dissertation Award in Japanese Studies, honoring excellence in social sciences research on Japan.

Call for nominations for the Richard J. Samuels Dissertation Award in Japanese Studies from the United States-Japan Foundation (USJF). us-jf.org/en/news/usjf...

A very informative article explaining the conspiracy theories and ideologies motivating Japan's new far-right party, Sanseitō, which made substantial seat gains in last July's upper house election. Thanks to @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social & @robfahey.net for writing this.

Screenshot of title page of article, "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan" at QJPS.

Screenshot of Figure 4 in article: Decomposing the LDP's valence.

✨ Now at QJPS: "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan" w/ @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social & @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social. Open-access link to article: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...

Japan's New Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?

Tuesday, 11/4, 8-9PM ET: Join Director Christina Davis and our Faculty Associates Amy Catalinac, Saori Katada, @adampliff.bsky.social, @lipscy.bsky.social, @profdansmith.bsky.social online to discuss "Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?"
munkschool.utoronto.ca/event/japans...

Poster advertising upcoming virtual seminar about Japan's new prime minister.

Upcoming virtual seminar: "Japan's New Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?" Register ⬇️
iu.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Comparative Politics Needs Area Studies, and Area Studies Needs Comparative Politics If you were a graduate student in political science between 1990 and 2010 or so, you probably experienced some heated debates about the future of area studies and its role in the discipline. This w…

One casualty in the Trump administration’s war on higher education is federal funding for area studies. This harms students, scholars, and U.S. national security.

It also comes at a time in which political science and area studies are more compatible than ever before. Read on for new research!

1/

Research — Charles T. McClean

You might start with @cmcclean.bsky.social's research, esp. "Does Youth Representation Matter for Social Spending?" forthcoming at JOP. www.charlesmcclean.com/research

Japan, ostensibly one of the least religious countries in the world, had its political order upended by the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai. That is THE story about Friday's epochal shift in Japanese politics (thread follows):

Sad news:

Congrats!🎉

Tonight! ⬇️ #JPOSS is on a Wednesday, rather than the usual Thursday, and features Prof. Jacques Hymans (USC), with "Does official historical memory discourse move public opinion?The case of Japan’s new banknote designs."

Wed., 9/3, 8-9 pm ET: Join next #JPOSS to discuss Jacques Hymans's paper, “Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs” with Charles Crabtree, @yoshiono.bsky.social, and @lipscy.bsky.social. Paper and registration: jposs.org/event/hymans...

Happy to see this article now "in print" at @polbehavior.bsky.social 🎉 Open-access:
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Why has women’s rise in politics been so slow even under PR?

Our new APSR paper [out today!] shows how “hidden majoritarianism” in proportional systems shapes women’s progression from entering lists to reaching top offices.