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Matthew Palmer

@so3brocktree.bsky.social

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Former soldier. Accidental journalist. Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy. Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own. Longer thoughts & feelings on substack: https://crackingdefence.substack.com/

1,460 Followers  |  768 Following  |  1,380 Posts  |  Joined: 14.08.2023  |  1.9128

Latest posts by so3brocktree.bsky.social on Bluesky


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How a four-year onslaught has changed Ukraine The border guards who faced Russiaโ€™s tanks were changed for ever, like their country

โ€œLife turned upside down,โ€ says Baloo. โ€œBefore, I had plans, I had hopes.โ€

20.02.2026 19:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 30    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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How four years of war have changed Russia The fighting in Ukraine has reshaped everyday life

โ€œEverything has frozen and turned into a grey, viscous paste consisting of bombing and shooting, bargaining and lying, restrictions and repressions.โ€

20.02.2026 19:16 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Interesting article by @davidallengreen.bsky.social

20.02.2026 18:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 28    ๐Ÿ” 14    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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How Palantir captured the Ministry of Defence Insufficient details about the US data intelligence companyโ€™s recent contract have been made public

Rather damning verdict on the MOD's contract with Palantir.

20.02.2026 18:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Because of the inconsiderate timing of US Supreme Court striking down Trumpโ€™s tariff policy, nobody is going to be interested in my piece on Palantir and public procurement law at the FT.

20.02.2026 16:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 307    ๐Ÿ” 45    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 29    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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How Palantir captured the Ministry of Defence Insufficient details about the US data intelligence companyโ€™s recent contract have been made public

Rather damning verdict on the MOD's contract with Palantir.

20.02.2026 18:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putinโ€™s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putinโ€™s plans ...

Fantastic read.

20.02.2026 17:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Spoiling a lot of takes but begging a large number of other questions... "Worsening graduate fortunes, it turns out, are a particularly British problem"

www.ft.com/content/649d...

20.02.2026 07:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 307    ๐Ÿ” 143    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 26    ๐Ÿ“Œ 25
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Always Start with People, Not Technology A peopleโ€‘centred industrial strategy for AI, good work, and the everyday economy

The top UK jobs are retail assistants, care workers, managers, drivers, and teachers. Mostly not in the AI firing line-and in services. How do we make them better.

Meanwhile the focus is on "something big is happening" AI hype. We're distracted.

New piece.

open.substack.com/pub/anthonyp...

20.02.2026 08:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 17    ๐Ÿ” 6    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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UK swings to record ยฃ30.4bn budget surplus in January Figures come ahead of Spring Statement in March

UK swings to record ยฃ30.4bn budget surplus in January ft.trib.al/jy6yxtZ

20.02.2026 07:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 31    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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2000 METERS TO ANDRIIVKA

I finally watched 2000 metres to Andriivka.

Fuck me it hits hard.

19.02.2026 18:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We take this stuff seriously. Have done for over 300 years.

20.02.2026 00:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Just in: country which invented the rule of law and holding royalty to account upholds rule of law and holds royalty to account

20.02.2026 00:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We need to emphasise the 'Civil Wars' as the English Revolution. The political debate, ferment and change of the period was immense.

We tried and executed our King - in the 17th Century, for fucks sake. Long before it was cool.

20.02.2026 00:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We need to emphasise the 'Civil Wars' as the English Revolution. The political debate, ferment and change of the period was immense.

We tried and executed our King - in the 17th Century, for fucks sake. Long before it was cool.

20.02.2026 00:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The pop-history account of how France chose violent revolution and Britain chose gradual reform always slides over the fact that Britain fought its own very bloody revolution(s) over the same issues, they just did it a few centuries earlier.

19.02.2026 23:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 699    ๐Ÿ” 82    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 24    ๐Ÿ“Œ 11

Its amazing, because if you do even the most cursory reading of Japanese history in the late 19th and eary 20th century you would know it was fucking bollocks.

Just spending 10 minutes on wikipedia would have told you that.

19.02.2026 19:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 19    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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2000 METERS TO ANDRIIVKA

I finally watched 2000 metres to Andriivka.

Fuck me it hits hard.

19.02.2026 18:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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We have become aware of a fraudulent website - ospreypress (dot) com - that is misrepresenting itself as Osprey Publishing. This site is not affiliated with us in any way.

19.02.2026 15:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 31    ๐Ÿ” 23    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Excellent reminder that the weather is, as it ever has been, a critical factor in warfare, for both people and machines.

19.02.2026 11:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The midnight convoys that freed thousands from Isis camps Women and children flee facilities holding alleged members of extremist group after Kurdish forces lose control

Truly a shit endstate for Al-Hol and a failure of Western policy.

The tragedy was that over the last few years, progress was being made. Inhabitants were being repatriated in sizeable numbers.

Now we've just let the whole thing collapse, with unpleasant ramifications for the future.

19.02.2026 11:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Excellent reminder that the weather is, as it ever has been, a critical factor in warfare, for both people and machines.

19.02.2026 11:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Forever the drama with European defence procurement.

Everyone wants a share, nobody is willing to budge.

19.02.2026 11:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The midnight convoys that freed thousands from Isis camps Women and children flee facilities holding alleged members of extremist group after Kurdish forces lose control

Truly a shit endstate for Al-Hol and a failure of Western policy.

The tragedy was that over the last few years, progress was being made. Inhabitants were being repatriated in sizeable numbers.

Now we've just let the whole thing collapse, with unpleasant ramifications for the future.

19.02.2026 11:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Yes. My personal view is that the GCAP trio shouldn't accept any workshare input from external partners as it will just complicate and delay the project. Instead, offer very good inducements (e.g. first dibs/cheaper orders) for upfront financial backing.

Not easy politically of course.

19.02.2026 10:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I am going to save you all a lot of time.
No, this is not the beginning of the end of the British monarchy.

Just the beginning of a 21st century chapter.

19.02.2026 10:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 197    ๐Ÿ” 16    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 13    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Yes. My personal view is that the GCAP trio shouldn't accept any workshare input from external partners as it will just complicate and delay the project. Instead, offer very good inducements (e.g. first dibs/cheaper orders) for upfront financial backing.

Not easy politically of course.

19.02.2026 10:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I'd be surprised if there were not conversations with the UK, Italy and Japan over GCAP.

19.02.2026 10:11 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Getting ever more irate with officials mechanically trotting out the tired 'the US is our closest and most important ally'. It evidently is not.

Evident of a generation that can't psychologically compute the new world we now live in.

19.02.2026 09:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

...these signals were reversed. Pravda was just telling whatever the regime wanted it to say, whereas the truth could only be found by reading the handouts on the street, the photocopies stuck to lampposts.

I am very interested in how this maps onto our world, hugely influenced by Putin's trolls

18.02.2026 21:17 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 21    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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