Matthew Savill

Conventional Prompt Strike in European Military Power This research paper explores the critical role of conventional prompt strike capabilities in enhancing European military power.

New research by Dr Sidharth Kaushal argues Europe must use conventional prompt strike to degrade Moscow’s missile defences or risk the credibility of Britain and France’s nuclear deterrents.

In this bonus episode of Global Security Briefing you can hear from Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Dr Jonathan Eyal on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Listen to the episode: https://bit.ly/4tTHfR3

Earlier today Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social & Dr Jonathan Eyal gathered at RUSI HQ to mark the 4 year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Watch the recording; https://bit.ly/3OLHDkp

Not a RUSI Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

Comments from me based on my experience with security clearances (and working in vetting a lifetime ago!).

What are the takeaways from MSC for Germany, UK, Poland, and France?

@rikefranke.bsky.social, @mtsavill.bsky.social, @susmonika.bsky.social & yours truly:

European allies ‘frustrated’ by UK defense paralysis The U.K. rearmament efforts are hobbled by the country’s fiscal difficulties, which is angering the arms industry.

Given budgetary constraints in the UK and France, I expect more stories like this going forward.

www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Ukraine: Prospects for Peace, Four Years After Russia’s Invasion Join an expert panel as they reflect on the prospects for peace, four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, what are Ukraine's prospects for peace?

Join Maryna Vorotnyuk, Neil Melvin, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Jonathan Eyal on 24 February for an insightful discussion as we mark the anniversary.

Not a Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran again? Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.

'they [the US] could go after the centres of military power, including Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and maybe the militias that are suppressing the protesters' @mtsavill.bsky.social quoted in the below BBC article.

US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran? Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.

A few comments from me here. The headline is that the choice of targets and how much the US can strike are both growing, but the question is what can realistically be achieved, especially if President Trump wants both 'decisive' and 'short'. How brittle is the regime?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A good list, and pleasing to see Jack Watling’s ‘Arms of the Future’ recommended.

Layered Ambiguity: US Cyber Capabilities in the Raid to Extract Maduro from Venezuela The US operation to remove Maduro succeeded despite fundamental ambiguity about what cyber delivered but that opacity has strategic consequences.

'Most governments do not disclose offensive cyber operations. Boasting about capabilities is not the usual game' writes @lmhurel.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

A powerful story from @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social last night, adding details on the human impact of the Iranian regime's behaviour.

🎙️Tune in to the latest Talking Strategy episode, where we explore how Western nations are evolving their strategies - from historic Cold War approaches to today’s cutting-edge innovations in technology and defence: https://bit.ly/4pjXumN

Webinar: Venezuela’s Crisis: Regional Dynamics and Global Consequences Join us online for a briefing and Q&A, with a panel of RUSI experts discussing the evolving security implications of the US strikes on Venezuela.

🚨📅Join us this Friday for an in-depth webinar exploring the future of Venezuela. Our experts will analyse the regime’s trajectory and the pivotal role of external actors. Open to all RUSI members.

An important update on previous work, to highlight that the air superiority that underpins so much of Western military power (see recent highly successful operations!) is increasingly challenged.

Start your week by looking at this; given the initial statements from the US Administration, there must be some doubt as to whether there is even a plan for a transition to democracy, let alone how feasible it will be.

Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence To reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, states must narrow their nuclear doctrines, utilise non-nuclear deterrence alternatives and engage in risk reduction.

NEW RUSI Paper, ‘Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence’ by Lukasz Kulesa is out now! www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

🎄Merry Christmas from all of us at RUSI!

Detailed but important analysis, with lessons for NATO and integrated air and missile defence planners.

🎙️Gen. Robinson brings her military expertise to the Talking Strategy podcast, offering valuable insights that shape foreign policy and drive innovative strategic thinking.

🎧Listen here: https://bit.ly/4i6uUn3

#HIRING

We are seeking a Senior Research Fellow! The role will focus on Russian and Eurasian issues, delivering research projects and enhancing our profile in this critical area. Interested? Apply now or share with your network: https://bit.ly/3LOmeFJ

Important research given the current state of the war, and the lessons that are being drawn - perhaps erroneously - about the future of manoeuvre, armoured vehicles and the mix of weapons and capabilities needed to survive and succeed on the modern battlefield.

'Overall we're slightly creaking at the seams.'

@mtsavill.bsky.social explains that despite higher spending and strong support for Ukraine, the UK’s military still faces serious capability and readiness gaps.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

'The security environment is not great at the moment. There is a major industrial war on our doorstep.'

@mtsavill.bsky.social explains why the UK's armed forces had been 'hollowed out' in previous decades, from our podcast on defence spending.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

UK National Security Advantage from Disruptive Technologies This paper identifies existing assets that strengthen UK strategic advantage for national security in disruptive technologies and highlights some gaps and risks for UK policymakers to consider.

🚨🧵New RUSI report, ‘UK National Security Advantage from Disruptive Technologies’ by @piahuesch.bsky.social and @tashbuckley.bsky.social is out now!

And again, this may all be speculation, given how equivocal Trump was this week.

So while there will be valuable military targets for US cruise missiles, I can't help but feel we are talking about a narrow set of high-value targets representing critical points in the supply chain, or particular niche capabilities, rather than seeking an impact across the war.

This is different from the impact the current deep strike campaign is having on Russian energy production, where the increasing volume and rate of Ukrainian attacks is beginning to bite.

Removing Constraints on Support to Ukraine: No Silver Bullets Removing restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine by international partners will help Ukraine’s defence against Russia, particularly in the north, but it is not a war-winning move on its...

It's a bit dated, but I wrote about this last year, after the Ukrainians discovered in 2023 how hard it was to synchronise the two. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

That sort of impact also requires pressure at the front to put stress on Russian forces, which creates the demand for logistics support and ammunition which is simultaneously being attacked and interdicted. That pressure is largely absent for now.