Stephen Senn

What is an OS? Some examples. 1) Doll & Hill lung cancer patients 2) D&H UK doctors 3) Framingham 4) Jerry Morris bus drivers and conductors 5) Whitehall studies. 1) is case control 2,4 &5 are cohort 3) cohort or registry?
All of the above important & representativeness irrelevant in all cases.

True but then sofa so good.

Banana containers cause shipping disruption in Solent - BBC News The containers came off a cargo ship near Bembridge on Saturday evening.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
The stuff of nightmares.

All I can say is MOT! And I don’t own a car #LUFC

“You will find that some trophies that are made of gold would better be made of iron but you may need to ponder y that is.” Sayings of Confuseus

“Some people are a soccer for awards.” Sayings of Confuseus

“Give the ref a white stick” used to be a common comment on poor decisions.

We are happy to give you priority in the matter of gammelost.

Swiss or a Norwegian imitation?

Wester Craiglockart

Arthur’s Seat from Wester Craiglockart

Easter Craiglockart with Edinburgh Castle beyond

Polwarth Church

Today’s hike was morning only, since I had a lunchtime meeting.
Wester Craiglockart and back via the Union Canal. #hiking #Edinburgh

I assume that these Christmas trees were cut down using axes.

“The difference between an orchestra and econometrics is that the former has variable instruments.” Sayings of Confuseus

And just think of the survivor bias.

No doubt but SCMs and counterfactuals don’t get a mention in that paper.

"The predictions here are not of future events, as in the context of time-series analysis, but rather of what would have happened in the experiment if other conditions had prevailed." I'm baffled. This is from a paper of 1982. But experts inform me that causality is never considered in statistics.

L to R Chimay, Duval, Orval

Shocking. Belgium! It's mandatory that the glass be matched to the contents.

Fairly common. The Water of Leith is a good place to see them and I saw two there on a walk 10 days ago. This one was on The Braid Burn.

A dull day today, so instead of my usual Thursday hike I had a wee stroll. I was rewarded by seeing this heron in Braidburn Valley Park. #Edinburgh

My view is that a student can only be judged on what they did get and only be awarded in addition some of what they didn't get. The ratio of what you did to what you didn't get is an odds so awarding some constant increment on the logit scale seems reasonable.

"They who study experiments will find that incompetent blockhead designs are common." Sayings of Confuseus

"... your columnist is a statistical totalitarian, who holds the radical view that statistical method should be applied to everything, even statistics."
How to rescale examination marks (with added bonus of free Excel sheet).
senns.uk/wprose.html#...

Mastering variation: variance components and personalised medicine Various sources of variation in observed response in clinical trials and clinical practice are considered, and ways in which the corresponding components of variation might be estimated are discussed. Although the issues have been generally ...

Agreed but observed variation >> true variation >> actionable variation, so we need to think and analyse carefully.

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

Blatant misrepresentation. You can’t even call it a bear faced lie.

“You will find that multivariate analysis is an excellent way of finding answers when you don’t know the questions.” Sayings of Confuseus
(Now corrected Previous version was a “no know” due to His Grand Sagacity having a senior moment .)

Does it depend on having binary outcomes?

"we probably do not need to worry about the fact that the actual effect of one treatment rather than the other is not the same for all patients. Quite limited knowledge about an average improvement is the best that we can do" John Tukey, Controlled Clinical Trials, 1993 p282

"I recall 4 or 5 statisticians, including David Cox, Ram Gnanadesikan and myself, driving from London to Sheffield. The question arose of how often each of us used multivariate techniques. The answers I recall were in the range from 1 in 50 to 1 in 200." John Tukey, ISR, 1991, p130

Remember Cromwell’s Principle

www.senns.uk/wpoetry.html...

I was thinking more along the lines of “up to a point Lord Copper”.

I think what they have is a pre-programmed announcement that say what should happen if everything goes to plan but which runs on regardless of reality, and another one that has real information, and has to contradict it when necessary.
It reminds me of something; what can it be?